Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Texas A&M by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction 2024 / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The return of a great college football rivalry game more than a decade finds Texas facing off against Texas A&M with major postseason implications to play for. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas is the selection committee’s current projected SEC champion, but it still has to win this game in order to have a chance to prove them right, and get some revenge against Georgia, which handed the then-No. 1 Longhorns their only loss of the season.

The same goes for the Aggies, who will also clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win over the Longhorns, but are coming off a disappointing four-overtime loss at Auburn.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Longhorns and Aggies renew their rivalry?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Texas A&M compare in this Week 14 college football game.

Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Longhorns over the Aggies, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 29 to 23 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5.7 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a 64 percent chance of outright victory over the Aggies.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Texas vs. Texas A&M odds, how to pick the game

Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this week.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -205 and for Texas A&M at +168 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -5.5
• Longhorns to win -205
• Bet over 48.5 points

A plurality of bettors expect the Longhorns will take care of the Aggies on the road, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Texas A&M will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a touchdown margin in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models prefer the Longhorns over the Aggies in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 77.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Texas A&M as the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 10.9 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Texas vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: College Station, Tex.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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