Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

Texas may not have much hope of making the College Football Playoff anymore, but whatever hope remains hinges on their performance against undefeated, third-ranked rival Texas A&M.

A&M has won 10 games for the first time since 2012 and is perfect through 11 games for the first time since 1992, clearing a path towards an SEC championship and is a lock for the playoff.

What do the analytics predict as the Longhorns and Aggies renew their rivalry on Black Friday?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Texas A&M compare in this college football rivalry classic.

Texas vs. Texas A&M score prediction

As expected, the model is siding with the Aggies to stay perfect, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Texas by a projected score of 30 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Aggies a 63 percent chance of outright victory over the Longhorns.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are also going with the Aggies, but by a narrower margin.

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -132 and for Texas at +112 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Texas has struggled at times when defending against the pass, an advantage that Marcel Reed and the Aggie aerial attack will have the targets and playmakers to exploit and A&M has the bodies on the defensive front who will ultimately win their matchups against an inconsistent Longhorn offensive line.

College Football HQ predicts: Texas A&M wins, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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