USC vs. Iowa prediction: Who wins, and why?

See our expert college football prediction as USC and Iowa face off in Week 12 — who wins, why, and what to expect in this marquee matchup.

USC Trojans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes prediction 2025 | Ron Chenoy | Imagn

One of four ranked matchups in college football this weekend finds USC looking to remain undefeated at home against challenger Iowa in a game with serious playoff consequences.

USC is on the outside of the College Football Playoff bubble this week, and while still technically in the mix with two losses, a third would almost certainly end its national title ambitions.

Iowa dropped a third game last week, but it was a close one at home against playoff hopeful Oregon, and poses a legitimate threat on the defensive side of the ball against the Trojans air attack.

USC vs. Iowa: What to watch for

Iowa vs. USC prediction 2025 | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

1. Iowa’s Run Game vs. USC’s Rush Defense

Running back Kamari Moulton has topped 75 rushing yards in five consecutive games and remains the centerpiece of Iowa’s offense.

USC’s run defense ranks just 126th in rushing success rate allowed and 86th in EPA per rush, with their front seven struggling to stop opponents—six straight foes have posted 100+ yards on the ground.

Iowa’s ability to leverage its ground game and control the tempo could be decisive, especially if rainy conditions do materialize.​

2. Turnover Battle

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown an interception in each of his last five games, and Iowa’s defense excels at forcing mistakes and capitalizing on turnovers.

Both teams need to protect the football, but if Iowa’s opportunistic defense can generate takeaways, it could flip momentum in a close matchup.​

3. USC’s Passing Game vs. Iowa’s Pass Defense

USC’s offense, led by Maiava and receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, is a top-10 unit nationally in passing yards and ranks among the most explosive in the country.

However, Iowa’s pass defense is elite, ranked fifth in the nation and allowing just 13.7 points per game, and will look to limit big plays.

Whether USC can connect on explosive passes or Iowa’s secondary keeps them contained will be crucial.

What the bettors are saying

The betting markets are siding with the Trojans to remain undefeated at home, but about a touchdown.

USC is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for USC at -225 and for Iowa at +188 to win outright.

USC vs. Iowa prediction: Who wins?

USC Trojans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes prediction 2025 | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Iowa has the defense to mess around at the line and bother the Trojan blockers protecting quarterback Jayden Maiava, and if it can do that enough, they could tilt the balance in their favor.

But USC has the kind of receiving skill that should wear down the Iowa perimeter defenders over time and this team plays its best football at home, enough to push this over a touchdown.

College Football HQ picks...

• USC wins 33-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch Iowa vs. USC

When: Sat., Nov. 15
Where: USC

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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