USC vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert football model

Big Ten football returns to action this weekend, as newly-ranked USC looks to avoid a third loss this season on the road against a Nebraska squad hoping to avoid falling to .500 in conference play.

USC (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) took last week off after succumbing to rival Notre Dame on the road, while Nebraska edged out Northwestern by a touchdown to improve to 6-2 overall.

What do the analytics predict as the Trojans pay a visit to the Cornhuskers this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Nebraska compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

USC vs. Nebraska score prediction

The model is putting more confidence in the Trojans to avoid another Big Ten loss on the road, but in a game that could come down to the final play.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat Nebraska outright by a projected score of 30 to 28 and to win the game by an expected margin of just 1.7 points in the process.

The model gives the Trojans a narrow 54 percent chance of victory over the Cornhuskers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets concur with that projection, naming the Trojans a narrow favorite over the Cornhuskers, by a little more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown.

USC is a 4.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for USC at -188 and for Nebraska at +158 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Nebraska has played solid defense in all phases thus far, ranking among the top 30 in college football by allowing just under 20 points per game.

But now that unit has to contend with a USC aerial attack that leads the nation with 326 passing yards and 530 total yards per game on average.

USC is posting over 42 points per game behind the expert play of quarterback Jayden Maiava, who is third by himself with 311 yards in the air, and wideout Makai Lemon is second with 108 yards each time out.

Nebraska has struggled to repel opponents on the ground, but could find an angle against a USC rushing attack that is coming off a season-low against Notre Dame and has two of its three top backs sidelined with injury.

USC plays a lot of too-close games against Big Ten opponents, win or lose, so either way we expect this will be decided by less than a touchdown.

We concur with the SP+ wisdom in this matchup, taking the Trojans to win, but the Cornhuskers to cover.

Nebraska +4.5
USC to win -188
Bet under 58.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks