USC vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins, and why?

College Football Playoff selectors will keep a close eye on what happens this Saturday as USC hits the road against Oregon in this consequential Big Ten matchup.

Oregon is currently on the inside of the latest playoff bracket as the projected No. 7 seed, and could even potentially afford another loss, but would prefer to not give the committee a chance to think it over.

USC is on the wrong side of the top-dozen and with two losses cannot afford a third if they want to make a case that they belong in the conversation.

USC vs. Oregon: What to watch for

USC vs. Oregon prediction — Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Oregon’s Run Game vs. USC’s Run Defense

Oregon boasts one of the nation’s most effective rushing attacks, led by Noah Whittington, who averages over 8 yards per carry and provides consistent chunk plays behind a Duck line that is top-ten in FBS in limiting negative plays.

USC’s defense, however, has struggled against the run and frequently gives up big plays; if Oregon can establish its ground game, they can control the clock and wear down the Trojans.

2. Battle of Explosive Offenses

Both teams feature top-10 scoring offenses, with Oregon averaging 39 points per game and USC close behind at just over 32 points each time out.

What happens could ultimately hinge on which team executes more efficiently and turns drives into touchdowns, especially in the red zone.

Sustained drives and explosive plays from star skill position players, like Oregon’s Dakorien Moore and USC’s spread attack, will be decisive.

3. QB Protection and Turnover Margin

Both teams have elite quarterbacks: Oregon’s Dante Moore (72.8% completion, 21 TDs) and USC’s Maiava (67%, 18 TDs) have performed well under pressure but face defensive fronts that excel at generating pressure.

Oregon’s defense ranks top five nationally in pressure rate, while USC’s offensive line has been prone to allowing sacks and disruptions, especially after injuries.

Whichever quarterback gets more time and avoids turnovers will have the upper hand, as both defenses look to capitalize on mistakes and field position.

What the bookies say

Bettors have little confidence in the Trojans to make this a game, and are taking the Ducks by nearly double digits at home.

Oregon is a 9.5 point favorite against USC, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points for the game, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -390 and for USC at +310 to win outright.

USC vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

USC vs. Oregon football game prediction — Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

These are two of the most capable offenses in college football both in moving the ball through the air and translating that success into points, but the Ducks still have an edge on the ground, in protecting their quarterback, and exploiting those lingering gaps in the Trojan secondary.

USC has won two key games on the road this season, but Nebraska and Purdue are not quite in the same weight class as what Oregon can throw at you. There is still a gap between where Oregon is and where the Trojans want to be.

College Football HQ picks...

Oregon wins 34-24
Covers the spread
And hits the under

How to watch USC vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Oregon

Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: CBS network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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