Utah vs. Texas Tech game prediction by ESPN football computer

Expert prediction for Utah vs. Texas Tech by a college football analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Utah Utes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders game prediction 2025 | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Utah welcomes Texas Tech in a battle of undefeated conference rivals in the Big 12 opener to kick off college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Texas Tech is averaging more than 60 points per game this season behind an offense led by quarterback Behren Morton, who has 11 touchdowns and 1 interception, but this unit faces a considerable upgrade in competition going against the Utah defense.

That unit ranks 8th in FBS by allowing just 8.3 points per game, but will itself face a tougher test against a more potent Red Raiders offense in this conference opener.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Utah vs. Texas Tech predictions

The simulations are siding more strongly with the home team over the visitors in this Big 12 opener on Saturday.

Utah is the sizable favorite in the matchup, projected to win the game outright in the majority 65 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 35 percent of sims.

In total, the Utes came out on top in 13,000 simulations of the matchup, while the Red Raiders edged out Utah in the remaining 7,000 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Utah is projected to be 3.8 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Utes to cover the spread over the Red Raiders.

That’s because Utah is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Utah at -144 and for Texas Tech at +120 to win outright.

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Spread consensus picks

A slight majority of bettors expect Texas Tech to make this a game against Utah on the road, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas Tech is getting 57 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset or to lose by 1 or 2 points.

The other 43 percent of wagers project that Utah will win by at least a field goal and cover the spread.

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Utah vs. Texas Tech future projections

Utah sits in pole position among Big 12 teams when looking at the ESPN computer’s updated 136-team college football rankings coming into this week.

The model estimates that the Utes will be a projected 14.3 points better than an average team on a neutral field and ranks No. 18 nationally in the latest poll.

Utah is projected to win 9.5 games this season and leads the Big 12 with a 23.6 percent chance to win the conference championship.

Texas Tech isn’t far behind, ranking fourth in the Big 12 and No. 26 nationally, boasting a 13 percent chance to win the conference title this season.

The computer predicts the Red Raiders will win 8.9 games this season.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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