ESPN computer predicts Big Ten football order of finish in 2025

After winning the national championship in the last two seasons, the Big Ten has staked its claim as college football’s most accomplished conference over that span, but there’s plenty of competition threatening that dominance in 2025 from around the country.

ESPN has updated its 136-team college football rankings in preparation for Week 0, a database of predictive analytics that forecasts how each team and conference is expected to play out in every game of the forthcoming 2025 college football season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Here’s what the model makes of the Big Ten this coming season, and where each team will finish in the eventual standings in 2025.

18. Purdue

Big Ten football order of finish prediction for 2025 — Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Prediction: 2.9 wins

You’ll be hard-pressed to find many positive predictions for Purdue after going 1-11 a year ago, but bringing on head coach Barry Odom was a critical hire after his successful tenure at UNLV. His offensive line and receiver group undergo major transformation, and the Boilermakers return zero starters from a defense that allowed 40 points per game in ‘24.

17. Northwestern

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Prediction: 4.7 wins

Three returning blockers for incoming quarterback Preston Stone are something to build around, as will lead back Cam Porter and transfer wideout Griffin Wilde, and while the Wildcats fill holes at linebacker and in the secondary, they have a decent line up front. The index looks slightly more favorable on Northwestern now than in June, giving it one more projected victory than before.

16. Michigan State

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Prediction: 4.8 wins

Aidan Chiles returns at quarterback, and should get some help from transfers like Chrishon McCray and Omari Kelly at receiver to boost a Spartans offense that posted under 20 points on average per game last season.

15. Maryland

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Prediction: 5.5 wins

With one Big Ten victory a year ago and losing 7 of its other 8 league games by more than 2 touchdowns, the Terrapins are basically starting over, replacing 3 of their offensive linemen and 3 of their most productive receivers, all with a new quarterback and a defense that allowed 36 points per game last fall.

14. UCLA

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.1%

Prediction: 5.1 wins

Nico Iamaleava was a monster transfer gain, but the former Vols quarterback is looking at a receiver rotation that lost its five best targets and will work behind an entirely new offensive line.

13. Wisconsin

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.2%

Projection: 5.6 wins

Not what Badgers fans are hoping for, as Luke Fickell is just 13-13 in two years, faces a brutal schedule, returns an offense that averaged under 23 points, and a run defense that was 17th in the Big Ten last year.

12. Rutgers

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.2%

Prediction: 6.4 wins

Coming off consecutive winning seasons, the Scarlet Knights will be tested in games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, losing their top back and all but two defensive starters, but retains quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who had 18 touchdowns a year ago.

11. Minnesota

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.2%

Projection: 6.9 wins

Expect the Gophers’ offense to rely on lead back Darius Taylor right away as they search for a long-term option at quarterback working behind a line that returns three starters, but a defense that brings back just five.

10. Washington

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.4%

Projection: 7.0 wins

Demond Williams is a quarterback to watch after he posted 1,226 all-purpose yards with 10 TDs in a limited role last season, and he has help in the form of rusher Jonah Coleman and wideout Denzel Boston.

9. Iowa

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.7%

Projection: 6.6 wins

The index is more hopeful about Iowa than it was in June, giving this team another win in 2025. Tim Lester’s offense nearly doubled its scoring output a year ago, and the addition of transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski should boost those numbers more, provided the Hawkeyes can provide him with enough legitimate targets to offset the loss of lead back Kaleb Johnson.

8. Illinois

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.8%

Projection: 7.1 wins

A rough prediction for an Illini team that won 10 games a year ago and returns plenty of experience, not least quarterback Luke Altmyer and its entire offensive line, not to mention Gabe Jacas, a gifted edge rusher who had 13 negative plays in ‘24. Expect more than 7 wins from Illinois in 2025.

7. Nebraska

Chance to win Big Ten: 1.0%

Projection: 7.4 wins

Dylan Raiola should benefit from the addition of offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, as well as transfer wideouts Nyziah Hunter and Dane Key, while linemen Rocco Spindler and Elijah Pritchett are key acquisitions to the Cornhuskers’ rotation.

6. Indiana

Chance to win Big Ten: 1.5%

Projection: 8.1 wins

College football’s surprise playoff team a year ago, the Hoosiers have some turnover, but quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a legitimate pickup to pair with wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, while key foundational pieces of this defense are back, including linebacker Aidan Fisher and corner D’Angelo Ponds.

5. Michigan

Chance to win Big Ten: 7.8%

Projection: 8.8 wins

While the Wolverines install their new quarterback, they’ll lean on a backfield tandem of Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes, and hope new contributors can replace some elite outgoing talent in the front seven. Michigan went from 8 projected wins to 9 from June to these new rankings.

4. USC

Chance to win Big Ten: 8.1%

Projection: 8.7 wins

Not quite the USC standard, but while Jayden Maiava embraces the QB1 role for good, in tandem with Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane at receiver, the Trojans need much better offensive line play and for D’Anton Lynn’s defense to keep getting better. Southern Cal saw its chance to win the Big Ten double and its win total increase by a full game from ESPN's previous rankings in June.

3. Oregon

Chance to win Big Ten: 13.4%

Projection: 9.4 wins

Returning just four starters on defense and rebuilding their offensive line, the Ducks have some structural questions to work out, but have former 5-star quarterback Dante Moore stepping in, although the ESPN models docked Oregon a win from its projection compared to June, from 10 to 9 expected victories in 2025.

2. Penn State

Chance to win Big Ten: 30.7%

Projection: 10.3 wins

It looks like the model is still reluctant to give the Nittany Lions an edge over the Buckeyes, despite boasting some of college football’s best offensive continuity, with quarterback Drew Allar and rushers Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning, and with Jim Knowles calling this defense. But the index boosted PSU's conference title hopes by a couple percent since the first rankings.

1. Ohio State

Chance to win Big Ten: 35.0%

Projection: 10.0 wins

Two new coordinators, a new quarterback, new running backs, and new pass rushers. It’s a tall order for the reigning national champions, testing how well Ryan Day can coach this team back into the playoff. Jeremiah Smith, college football’s best receiver, is back, leading what is likely the nation’s premier receiving group again.

18. Purdue

17. Northwestern

16. Michigan State

15. Maryland

14. UCLA

13. Wisconsin

12. Rutgers

11. Minnesota

10. Washington

9. Iowa

8. Illinois

7. Nebraska

6. Indiana

5. Michigan

4. USC

3. Oregon

2. Penn State

1. Ohio State

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