Why College Football’s AP Preseason No. 1 Ranking Feels More Like a Curse

There’s nothing better in life than being No. 1 at anything, but when it comes to the preseason college football rankings, there may be nothing quite so useless.

As much as the poll itself, part of the great preseason ritual this time of year involves fans going on about how pointless the poll is given no one has actually played any football, and judging by recent national championship results, they may just have a point.

Which might not be ideal news for Ohio State, the newly minted No. 1 ranked team in this year’s preseason AP poll, and potentially great news for its haters.

You’re the No. 1 team? Great, who cares?

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Since the start of the 21st century, just two college football teams have started at No. 1 in the preseason rankings and won the national championship: USC in 2004, under the old BCS system, and Alabama in 2017, the latter being the only one in the playoff era.

Look at the recent wreckage. Georgia opened in 2023 and 2024 as the consensus No. 1 team and watched Michigan and then Ohio State hoist the trophy, missing the bracket in ‘23 completely and getting bounced in its first playoff game in ‘24.

Texas entered 2025 as the preseason No. 1 team and missed the College Football Playoff, becoming the fourth such team in the playoff era to earn that fate – joining Ohio State in 2015, Alabama in 2022, and the ‘23 Georgia team – and finished at No. 12, the lowest final ranking for a preseason No. 1 since Oklahoma ended up No. 16 in 2011.

Three other preseason No. 1 teams finished at or outside the top 10 in this century: Georgia in 2008 (No. 13), Alabama in 2010 (No. 10), and USC in 2012 was the nadir in the art of preseason polling, finishing unranked, the sixth time that ever happened and the first since Ole Miss in 1964.

Otherwise, a top 10 finish is almost guaranteed for preseason No. 1 schools, finishing somewhere in that range in 12 of the previous 13 seasons. But only one of those was the champ.

Heavy lies the crown

Why the No. 1 Preseason Ranking in College Football Feels Like a Curse — USA TODAY Sports

Why do No. 1 preseason ranked teams not go all the way? First comes the target on your back. Every opponent circles the date against the top team, motivated underdogs play with extra intensity, and even lesser schools treat the matchup as their Super Bowl.

Any slip-up – an early injury, bad luck, a night where one position group has a lousy game – becomes magnified under the brightest spotlight in the sport.

Media scrutiny is relentless. Margin for error is slim with a short season. What is more recoverable for the No. 4 or No. 5 team feels catastrophic when everyone is waiting for the No. 1 team to fall.

Psychology also plays a part. Coaches of top ranked teams often talk about the need to embrace pressure, but players are only human, and the historical data suggests that such pressure exacts a toll. Players hear the hype starting in August and every close call is used as evidence that their top ranking was premature.

Contrast that with another higher-ranked team that can quietly stack wins while the No. 1 absorbs the weekly scrutiny. The pattern is consistent enough to feel like more than mere coincidence.

Where do national champions get ranked in the preseason?

Granted, being the No. 1 team in August doesn’t often result in championships, but that doesn’t make the preseason rankings process a complete waste. Not by a long shot.

Going by history, the AP pollsters are still pretty good at putting the eventual national champion somewhere very high early on, usually in the top five.

All but two teams in the College Football Playoff era that won the national championship started as the No. 5 team or better in the preseason AP top 25 rankings.

Both ended up teams of destiny: LSU started at No. 6 in the 2019 poll before going on a record-breaking run as national champions, and Indiana debuted at No. 20 last August as the overture to it completing the first 16-0 run since Yale in 1894.

Going back to the advent of the preseason poll in 1950, a total of 57 out of 76 (75 percent) eventual national champions were ranked inside the top 10 that summer, and 42 of them (55 percent) were ranked top five. Six champs were unranked in the preseason, most recently BYU in 1984.

Earlier in this century before the advent of the playoff saw a few other outliers. Auburn opened at No. 22 in 2010, the lowest of any champ in the BCS and CFP eras, and Florida State debuted at No. 13 in the 2013 poll before each won the national title. Ohio State’s 2002 title team started at No. 13, and Oklahoma’s last national champion in 2000 began at No. 19 in the preseason poll.

But in the playoff era, it’s the higher ranked teams that tend to go the distance.

Eventual national champion teams’ preseason AP ranking

Why College Football's No. 1 Preseason Ranking Feels More Like a Curse — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

College Football Playoff era

2014: Ohio State (No. 5)
2015: Alabama (No. 3)
2016: Clemson (No. 2)
2017: Alabama (No. 1)
2018: Clemson (No. 2)
2019: LSU (No. 6)
2020: Alabama (No. 3)
2021: Georgia (No. 5)
2022: Georgia (No. 3)
2023: Michigan (No. 2)
2024: Ohio State (No. 2)
2025: Indiana (No. 20)

Teams that start in the top five still produce the overwhelming majority of champions in the playoff era. Talent, coaching, and resources still matter. But the absolute peak of the mountain in August also still appears to be a particularly lonely and dangerous place.

The preseason No. 1 ranking is a flattering place to start. It’s rarely the place to finish.

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