Why Indiana's Preseason Ranking Could Spell Trouble for College Football's Champion

Only two – or three if you want to be technical – college football teams have won two straight national championships in this century, while four others have finished the following season outside the AP rankings altogether, which might be bad news for the reigning champs this year.

Indiana, coming off its historic national championship a year ago, is hoping to repeat history in one way and not the other as Curt Cignetti enters his third season, but the Hoosiers’ preseason ranking may could prove ominous, if history is any guide.

AP top 25 pollsters voted Indiana as the No. 6 team in their preseason college football rankings this week, and it’s precisely sitting outside the top five at this stage that may already put the Hoosiers in a bad spot when it comes to who came before.

Bad preseason luck for Indiana?

How so? Each of the last four reigning national champions that debuted outside the top five of the following preseason’s poll went on to finish unranked.

LSU in 2008 and 2020, Auburn in 2011, and Michigan in 2024 all bear the unwanted historical curse of winning a title and getting completely lost in the shuffle the next year. Does that history serve as a warning for the Hoosiers?

Indiana is outside the top 5 to start the season 👀

Each of the last four times the reigning national champion was ranked outside the preseason top 5, that team finished the season unranked ('24 Michigan, '20 LSU, '11 Auburn, '08 LSU). pic.twitter.com/Jm5gktdnbW
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 17, 2026

Who cares about history?

If anything, defying history is something that Indiana has done remarkably well with Curt Cignetti at the helm these last two seasons.

One of college football’s most consistent losers through the years, the Hoosiers immediately spawned into the sport’s most determined winners in that very short time, winning 27 of 29 games overall and making history with the first 16-0 season in college football since 1894 en route to the school’s first ever national championship.

Indiana also broke the mold when it became the first college football team in the playoff era to start outside the top six in the preseason poll and win the title, starting from No. 20 in last summer’s ranking before running the table.

Reigning champs lose a ton of talent

Why Indiana's Preseason Ranking Could Spell Trouble for College Football's Champions — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Those aforementioned teams that lost their momentum as reigning champs all have one major thing in common: they lost key starting leadership from one year to the next.

LSU in 2008 didn’t have quarterback Matt Flynn, fullback Jacob Hester, wideout Early Doucet, defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey, or defensive coordinator Bo Pelini.

In 2020, the Tigers lost a record 14 players in the NFL Draft, including quarterback Joe Burrow, and passing game coordinator Joe Brady.

Michigan lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback JJ McCarthy, and tailback Blake Corum, among others, and Auburn most notably saw Heisman Trophy quarterback Cam Newton head to the NFL Draft.

Indiana brings back plenty

As for Indiana this season? They lost a Heisman quarterback of their own in Fernando Mendoza, but this roster retains more quality than it loses overall.

Josh Hoover steps into the quarterback role with veteran experience, and will be aided by one of college football’s best wide receiver corps, and is standing behind one of the nation’s most experienced and most cohesive offensive lines.

Add in a Hoosier defense that returns six starters and some blue chip transfers to a unit that allowed under 12 points per game, and there’s still plenty here to make another run.

Curt Cignetti has spent two years disproving history, and everything points towards him doing it again at Indiana in 2026.

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