Where Recent National Champions Began in the Preseason College Football Rankings

Winning the national championship is the ultimate goal for any college football team, but the pool of potential schools who go all the way is usually pretty shallow.

Now, as the preseason AP top 25 college football rankings go live this week, and going strictly by recent history, we now have a much better idea of who those teams are in 2026.

In the College Football Playoff era, the eventual national champion has almost always started the season near the top of the first AP poll.

During that time, all but one title winner ranked no lower than No. 6 in the preseason. The record is clear.

Recent national champions’ preseason AP rankings

Where Recent National Champions Began in the Preseason College Football Rankings — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

College Football Playoff era

2014: Ohio State (No. 5)
2015: Alabama (No. 3)
2016: Clemson (No. 2)
2017: Alabama (No. 1)
2018: Clemson (No. 2)
2019: LSU (No. 6)
2020: Alabama (No. 3)
2021: Georgia (No. 5)
2022: Georgia (No. 3)
2023: Michigan (No. 2)
2024: Ohio State (No. 2)
2025: Indiana (No. 20)

The average preseason ranking among those national champions exactly was 3.1 in the initial poll. Just one team, Alabama in 2017, started at No. 1 and finished the job.

Where’s the best place to start in the preseason poll?

The most productive debut position appears to be No. 2, which produced four national championship teams, while No. 3 produced three such schools, and two started at No. 5.

Best of luck to the preseason No. 4 team, which has never won a national championship in the BCS or playoff eras, and none since Florida in 1996. Apologies to Notre Dame, which debuted at No. 4 in 2026.

LSU’s history-making 2019 squad was the lowest at No. 6 until Indiana broke the mold with its barnstorming 16-0 title run from No. 20 last fall, the second-lowest preseason ranking for any BCS or playoff era champion, only beating out Auburn (No. 22) in 2010.

Being ranked highly in August doesn’t guarantee a national title – plenty of preseason favorites have fallen short – but it strongly correlates with reaching the sport’s ultimate summit.

Who has a chance this year?

Congratulations to Oregon?

There was plenty of talk this offseason that it was the their “turn” to win a national championship, given the Big Ten’s recent run of three-straight titles, and the perception that Oregon was the next logical option on that list, but emerging as the No. 2 team in the preseason could actually prove fortuitous given the history.

Dan Lanning’s team returns plenty of star power at key positions, including quarterback Dante Moore, a superb blocking rotation, a dynamic backfield, and arguably college football’s best wide receiver corps and overall defense, but they have to pass a serious test at Ohio State late in the season.

Next up could be No. 3 Georgia, coming back loaded as usual on its own defense and boasting what should be another efficient offense led by quarterback Gunner Stockton and a group of experienced linemen and running backs to lead the Bulldogs to what would be their third-straight SEC championship.

Don't start at the top: Why College Football's Preseason No. 1 Ranking Feels Like a Curse

Will we see more lower-ranked national champions?

Where Recent National Champions Begin in the Preseason College Football Rankings — IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Indiana’s national championship run from outside the top-six in the preseason poll could prove less of an outlier going forward owing to major changes in the sport.

NIL deals, the wide open transfer portal, and direct player pay have poured new resources into programs beyond the traditional powers, and those schools usually limited in recruiting can now compete for talent more evenly.

As compensation narrows the gap between blue bloods and rising programs, we could see future national champions could seize the moment and emerge from deeper in the preseason rankings, signaling the growing parity college football hasn’t always had.

Going forward, we’ll see if schools like Indiana stay the exception, or become the new rule.

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