College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 7

Where things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings coming out of Saturday's games and looking ahead to Week 7.

ESPN updates its Top 25 college football rankings for Week 7 / USA Today Sports | IMAGN

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 7 games.

Five teams in the AP top 25 rankings lost their games over the weekend, including two stunning results that saw top 10 teams get upset: Texas on the road against Florida, and remarkably Penn State in a shocker against then-winless UCLA.

Alabama picked up an important win over Vanderbilt a week after taking out Georgia on the road, and Miami nailed rival Florida State on the road to stay undefeated.

How is this poll made? Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are slotted not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 7

25. TCU

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.5 games

Josh Hoover was responsible for 5 all-purpose touchdowns to help the Horned Frogs overcome a two-touchdown deficit to beat Colorado, improving to 4-1 on the year with a 1-1 mark in Big 12 competition heading into a date at Kansas State next weekend.

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24. Florida State

Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.2 games

A potentially-costly second-straight loss over the weekend for the Seminoles, who were completely unable to match Miami score for score early on and fell into a 28-3 deficit before mounting a comeback to make it look more respectable than it was. Now 0-2 in ACC play after such a promising start, FSU needs to regroup and look ahead to a winnable second half of the season to ensure it doesn’t lose all that early momentum.

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23. Auburn

John Reed-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 6.8 games

One of several Power Four teams off this past Saturday, the Tigers have dropped their first two SEC games and now take one of the worst passing offenses in college football up against rival Georgia next weekend in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry in danger of starting 0-3 in conference.

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22. Nebraska

Kylie Graham-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 8.6 games

Dylan Raiola led two early scoring drives to build a quick 14-0 lead and the Cornhuskers tacked on 17 points in the fourth quarter to hold off Michigan State and improve to 1-1 in Big Ten play ahead of a trip to a now 4-1 Maryland.

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21. Utah

Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 8.7 games

Devon Dampier helped recover the Utes’ offensive fortunes two weeks ago by throwing a career-high 4 touchdowns to smash West Virginia before going idle this past Saturday. Now, they welcome reigning Big 12 champ Arizona State in another key test to avoid falling under .500 in conference play.

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20. BYU

Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 9.5 games

Bear Bachmeier had a career-best 351 passing yards, going over 300 air yards for the first time this season, with a touchdown as the Cougars rolled up 4 more rushing scores to hold off West Virginia and improve to 2-0 in Big 12 play, but they also lost three linebackers to injury in the process. Tougher games lie ahead for this team.

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19. Penn State

Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 8

Win prediction: 7.2 games

Now, James Franklin can’t win the little games, either. Coming off a loss to Oregon last week, the Nittany Lions walked into a trap on the road against (then) winless UCLA, which apparently underwent the right coaching change in recent days, as the Bruins shredded Penn State’s defense for 42 points in a monster upset.

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18. Missouri

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 8.8 games

College football’s 9th ranked scoring offense took this past weekend off after a big win over UMass and, now 1-0 in SEC play with that win over South Carolina and second in the conference standings, welcomes Alabama next Saturday in a critical early test.

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17. LSU

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 8.0 games

Idle this past weekend, the Tigers are coming off the first loss of their season on the road against Ole Miss as questions once again revolve around this offense and its lack of a credible rushing threat, with a date against South Carolina next before two critical road tests against Vanderbilt and Alabama.

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16. Vanderbilt

David Leong-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win prediction: 8.4 games

No repeat engagement for the Commodores, who were unable to reprise last season’s historic upset against Alabama, largely because of star quarterback Diego Pavia’s two costly red zone turnovers that killed two potential scoring situations, and Vandy faces another tough schedule over the second half of the season.

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15. Oklahoma

BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.3 games

Michael Hawkins threw for 3 touchdowns and ran for a fourth as the Sooners predictably smashed up Kent State in an early October cupcake, but the current feeling is that John Mateer won’t be available for Texas next week, and OU’s schedule only gets tougher after that.

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14. Texas Tech

Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 6

Win prediction: 10.9 games

Once again, the Red Raiders’ new-look defense played its part, holding undefeated Houston to a single touchdown in a double-digit victory on the road to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play and maintain their position atop the conference pecking order heading into a home date against Kansas.

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13. Texas A&M

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 3

Win prediction: 9.5 games

Mike Elko gave some deserved credit to the Aggies’ defense for carrying the day in two straight wins against conference opponents, improving to 2-0 in SEC play after a 31-9 win over Mississippi State, though they ran for almost 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, too.

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12. Michigan

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.0 games

Justice Haynes once again proved to be the engine of the Wolverines’ offense, running for 117 yards and 2 scores in a two-touchdown win over Wisconsin to improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play with a notable road trip against USC at the Coliseum up next.

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11, Tennessee

Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 2

Win prediction: 8.8 games

Taking this weekend off after needing overtime to get past Mississippi State last time out, the Vols still command college football’s third-ranked scoring offense and Joey Aguilar is among the six best passers in the country, hosting Arkansas next week.

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10. USC

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 8.6 games

Coming off their first loss of the season, the Trojans took this past Saturday off but still rank top five in college football in scoring and passing offense as they return to the Coliseum against Michigan in Big Ten play.

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9. Miami

Robert Myers-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 11.6 games

Carson Beck put on a passing clinic, completing 20 of 27 passes with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, dealing to the Hurricanes’ unstoppable skill players in a six-point win at Florida State that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. Miami is 1-0 in ACC competition and doesn’t face another ranked team in the regular season.

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8. Texas

Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 4

Win prediction: 7.8 games

One of the two or three most disappointing teams in college football this season, the preseason SEC title favorite fell to 3-2 with a loss in the SEC opener at unranked Florida, as Arch Manning had 2 TDs and 2 picks and led the Longhorns with just 37 rushing yards. This offense is out of sorts heading into the Red River Shootout. Still a top 10 team in the ESPN rankings, though.

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7. Ole Miss

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 10.5 games

Off this past weekend following a signature victory against LSU the week before, the Rebels return with a home date against Washington State out of conference heading into a challenging two-game road trip against Georgia and Oklahoma that will show us exactly what this team is made of.

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6. Georgia

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 9.4 games

Gunner Stockton didn’t surpass 200 yards passing, but the Bulldogs’ quarterback ran for 2 touchdowns and the defense held Kentucky to just 45 rushing yards in a bounce back 35-14 win to improve to 2-1 in SEC play and 4-1 overall with a road date at rival Auburn up next.

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5. Notre Dame

Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 9.2 games

Despite being the weakness of this team so far, the Irish defense brought its A-game by intercepting four passes in a single game for the first time in two seasons, a crucial building block in a 28-7 win over Boise State to get over .500 for the first time this year and on a three-game win streak with no more ranked opponents on their schedule.

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4. Indiana

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 10.7 games

Off this past weekend, the Hoosiers are still undefeated and ranking top 10 nationally in scoring offense and defense, but will face by far the biggest test of their season on the road against Oregon. That didn’t go well last season at Ohio State, and Indiana wants to avoid a repeat of that.

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3. Alabama

Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win prediction: 9.9 games

Ty Simpson may have thrown his first interception of the season, but otherwise the quarterback went over 75 percent completion a third time and had 340 yards with 2 touchdowns while Jam Miller helped revive the Tide’s ground game with 136 yards and a score to take down Vanderbilt and move to 2-0 in SEC play.

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2. Oregon

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win prediction: 11.2 games

Still atop the ESPN rankings this week, the Ducks moved to the forefront of the national championship picture after their statement win at Penn State the weekend before, taking 16 first-place votes from the Buckeyes in the AP poll. Now they return from the idle week to take on Indiana at home in another big test.

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1. Ohio State

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win prediction: 11.5 games

Julian Sayin completed 85 percent of his passes for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, the quarterback’s third 300-yard game in five starts this season in a 42-3 rout against Minnesota. This defense has now allowed more than 10 points in a game and not surrendered a touchdown in the red zone this year. A road test at Illinois is next.

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