College football rankings: What history says about preseason No. 1 teams

Looking back at the history of the preseason AP top 25 college football rankings, where should eventual national champions be included in the first poll?

Are preseason college football rankings important? History suggests national champions tend to debut high up in the Top 25 poll, but not at the No. 1 position. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

For the first time ever, Texas debuted as the No. 1 team in the AP top 25 preseason college football rankings, but history suggests it won’t finish there.

How important is that No. 1 spot? When it comes to winning the national championship, it turns out that being the top dog isn't the most important thing.

Just two teams that started the season No. 1 in the preseason rankings in the 21st century have gone on to win the national championship, USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017.

So, while history may not always be with the No. 1 team in the preseason, it's definitely a good idea to be somewhere in the top five, going on recent data.

Here is a look at the preseason No. 1 college football teams since 2000, and where they finished in the Top 25, along with the national champion and where they started the season.

College football rankings: Comparing preseason No. 1 teams to national champions

How do preseason No. 1 teams in the college football rankings fare when it comes to the national championship picture? | USA Today Sports | IMAGN

BCS rankings era

2000 Preseason No. 1: Nebraska (finished No. 8); National Champion: Oklahoma (preseason No. 19)

2001 Preseason No. 1: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Miami (preseason No. 2)

2002 Preseason No. 1: Miami (finished No. 2); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 13)

2003 Preseason No. 1: Oklahoma (finished No. 3); Co-National Champion: USC (preseason No. 8)

— BCS national champion LSU finished No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll after starting at No. 14 in the 2003 preseason rankings

2004 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 1); National Champion: USC 

2005 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 2); National Champion: Texas (preseason No. 2)

2006 Preseason No. 1: Ohio State (finished No. 2); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 7)

2007 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 3); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 2)

2008 Preseason No. 1: Georgia (finished No. 13); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 5)

2009 Preseason No. 1: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 5)

2010 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 10); National Champion: Auburn (preseason No. 22)

2011 Preseason No. 1: Oklahoma (finished No. 16); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)

2012 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished unranked); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)

2013 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 7); National Champion: Florida State (preseason No. 11)

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College Football Playoff rankings era

2014 Preseason No. 1: Florida State (finished No. 5); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 5)

2015 Preseason No. 1: Ohio State (finished No. 4); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2016 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2017 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 1); National Champion: Alabama

2018 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2019 Preseason No. 1: Clemson (finished No. 2); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 6)

2020 Preseason No. 1: Clemson (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2021 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 5)

2022 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 5); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 3)

2023 Preseason No. 1: Georgia (finished No. 4); National Champion: Michigan (preseason No. 2)

2024 Preseason No. 1: Georgia (finished No. 6); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 2)

2025 Preseason No. 1: Texas (finishes ?); National Champion: ?

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All-time appearances in AP Top 25 preseason rankings

1. Ohio State — 72 | 94.7 percent of polls | 8.1 average ranking

2. Oklahoma — 67 | 88.2 percent of polls | 7.1 average ranking

3. USC — 63 | 82.9 percent of polls | 9.9 average ranking

4. Notre Dame — 62 | 81.6 percent of polls | 9.1 average ranking

5. Alabama — 59 | 77.6 percent of polls | 7.1 average ranking

6. Texas — 58 | 76.3 percent of polls | 8.9 average ranking

7. Michigan — 54 | 71.1 percent of polls | 7.8 average ranking

8. Penn State — 51 | 67.1 percent of polls | 10.8 average ranking

9. Nebraska — 46 | 60.5 percent of polls | 8.3 average ranking

10. Tennessee — 45 | 59.2 percent of polls | 12.2 average ranking

T-11. LSU — 44 | 57.9 percent of polls | 10.5 average ranking

T-11. Georgia — 44 | 57.9 percent of polls | 11.0 average ranking

13. Florida State — 42 | 55.3 percent of polls | 8.9 average ranking

14. Florida — 41 | 53.9 percent of polls | 10.5 average ranking

15. Auburn — 40 | 52.6 percent of polls | 11.5 average ranking

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