Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings: One unbeaten team in trouble?

While the top teams all won their games last weekend, there is a small chance the College Football Playoff selectors still make a minor change at the top of their second rankings.

Could there be change near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings this week? | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Members of the College Football Playoff selection committee are poised to reveal their second iteration of the official top 25 rankings coming out of Saturday’s action and looking ahead to another consequential weekend of November football still to come.

The selectors have already shown their hand as to which teams they clearly prefer over which others, and most of the important positions should remain unchanged around the top dozen, with perhaps one or maybe two exceptions.

One notable result in the competitive Big 12 conference picture and a closer-than-expected matchup in the Big Ten will force the committee into a decision on how to arrange the ten best teams in the playoff field this week.

Moreover, there will be a change of opinion in the Group of Five after previous favorite Memphis lost its game against Tulane last week, so we’ll see a new contender from those ranks slotted into the No. 12 seed in the latest bracket.

Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings

There shouldn't be change at the very top of the College Football Playoff rankings, but could there be around the top-five? | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Ohio State

Last week’s ranking: No. 1

Are the Buckeyes going to be credibly challenged this season? They haven’t so far, ranking third in the country beating opponents by an average of 24 points per game and for the time being, it appears the selectors think there’s enough of a gulf between undefeated Ohio State and undefeated Texas A&M.

2. Texas A&M

Last week’s ranking: No. 3

CFP committee chairman Mack Rhoades said there were “really small margins” between the top-three teams, and it’s possible that margin may have changed after the Aggies dominated on the road against SEC opponent Missouri, and could be enough to jump another undefeated team this week.

3. Indiana

Last week’s ranking: No. 2

The committee may be of two minds on the still-perfect Hoosiers. They stayed undefeated by beating Penn State on the road in dramatic fashion with a gutsy last-minute drive that could end up giving Fernando Mendoza the Heisman.

Or could they think less of Indiana needing that late push to beat a three-win, unranked team and think more of Texas A&M’s more convincing performance instead?

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4. Alabama

Last week’s ranking: No. 4

Make it eight-straight wins for the Crimson Tide, who are still perfect in SEC play and right behind the Aggies in the conference championship picture after a gritty win over LSU. Now they host Oklahoma, fresh off a big win at Tennessee on the back of one of college football’s toughest defenses.

5. Georgia

Last week’s ranking: No. 5

Mike Bobo’s offense put on a show in the Bulldogs’ penultimate SEC game, stacking up more than 300 rushing yards to put away Mississippi State in their fifth-straight win. A crucial game against Texas is next for the reigning SEC champs.

6. Texas Tech

Last week’s ranking: No. 8

Expect a big jump for the Red Raiders further into the top-ten after a convincing 22-point win over undefeated BYU. This defense continues to dominate, but the offense could profit from more reliable quarterback play and finish more of these drives.

7. Ole Miss

Last week’s ranking: No. 6

Yes, this could be the moment the selectors put the Rebels behind the Big 12 favorites given the latter played a more consequential game, while the former thrashed The Citadel by 49 in a cakewalk. It shouldn’t affect Ole Miss’ playoff hopes, though.

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8. Oregon

Last week’s ranking: No. 9

More than a few analysts expected the Ducks would have trouble at Iowa, and trouble they had. Trailing very late, Dante Moore led a frenzied last-minute drive to kick a field goal and escape to stay at one loss, but the passing game could get more aggressive.

9. Notre Dame

Last week’s ranking: No. 10

The committee loves how the Irish have recovered from their 0-2 start, both to CFP ranked teams and were placed even ahead of the Miami team it lost to last week. They’ll move up more after BYU’s loss, but a key test is coming at Pittsburgh this weekend.

10. Texas

Last week’s ranking: No. 11

A couple weeks ago, you could be forgiven for thinking the Longhorns were an afterthought, but improved play from Arch Manning and a solid win over Vanderbilt, combined with other teams’ losses, have them back in position heading into a massive game at Georgia.

11. Oklahoma

Last week’s ranking: No. 12

The pressure was, and is still, on for the Sooners coming out of a second loss but going into one of college football’s toughest remaining schedules. They passed a huge test at Tennessee, but there’s no margin for error heading into another one at Alabama.

Group of Five selection: USF

Technically, we believe BYU will be the No. 12 team in the committee’s rankings, but as far as the actual bracket goes, that place still belongs to the Group of Five’s best team.

That “best” team didn’t even make the top 25 last week, and they definitely won’t this time after Memphis dropped its second game of the season against Tulane last week.

Some intriguing options are available for the selectors to choose from, including North Texas and James Madison, but USF appears to have the best overall resume.

Predicting the CFP top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Texas Tech
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. BYU
13. Vanderbilt
14. Utah
15. Georgia Tech
16. Miami
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. Virginia
20. Louisville
21. Pittsburgh
22. Iowa
23. Tennessee
24. Cincinnati
25. USF

What the bracket looks like

Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

9 Notre Dame at 8 Oregon
Winner plays 1 Ohio State

12 USF at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama

10 Texas at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Texas A&M

11 Georgia Tech* at 6 Texas Tech
Winner plays 3 Indiana

*Projected ACC champion