Ranking Every Power 4 College Football Program in the State of Texas

Texas is, in many ways, the center of the College Football world. Not only does the Lone Star State have nearly double the number of Power 4 programs (7) than the school with the second-highest (4), but Texas is one of two states that have a representative in three of the four P4 conferences. Who knows? Before long, the Big Ten may move into the 28th state because of the oil money.

Ahead of the 2026 season, there are several championship hopefuls across the Lone Star State. Here's how each ranks in likelihood to win the championship.

No. 7: TCU Horned Frogs

With the longest odds to win from the state on most sportsbooks, the TCU Horned Frogs are still expected to be one of the better teams in the Big 12. TCU landed former Harvard Crimson quarterback Jaden Craig, Oklahoma State Cowboys IOL Noah McKinney, and South Alabama Jaguars receiver Jeremy Scott in the nation's No. 58 transfer portal haul this past January.

Sonny Dykes has collected top-40 recruiting classes the past several cycles, with multiple in the top 25. Having the local DFW metro to recruit from, TCU is always in a good position. After losing star QB Josh Hoover to the Indiana Hoosiers in the portal, the Horned Frogs probably can't expect to get past enough competition in a deep Big 12 to make the College Football Playoff. TCU will still enjoy a good bit of success in 2026.

No. 6: Houston Cougars

The Houston Cougars suffer a lot of the same problems as the Horned Frogs. While landing Toledo Rockets OL Anthony Boswell, Tulane Green Wave OL Shadre Hurst, UTSA Roadrunners tight end Patrick Overmyer, Syracuse Orange QB Luke Carney, and Oregon Ducks RB Makhi Hughes make for an impactful crop of newcomers, putting it all together and making it work enough to win the Big 12 and make a run in the CFP.

Willie Fritz has built this program into a winner quickly. It's unclear if Fritz can get UH over the CFP hump or needs to jump to a job with more resources, as he did with the Tulane Green Wave to the Cougars.

No. 5: Baylor Bears

While many expect Dave Aranda's half-decade-long malaise to continue in Waco during the 2026 season, the addition of Florida Gators QB DJ Lagway and hiring of Joe Klanderman as the new defensive coordinator could be a major culture-changer for a sleeping giant deep in the Heart of Texas.

While Baylor got a tough schedule draw, with the Arizona State Sun Devils, the BYU Cougars, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and Houston, with Texas Tech being the only home game in that bunch. Still, the Bears could be more ready than many are expecting if the program's patience with Aranda finally pays off.

No. 4: SMU Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs continue to get better under head coach Rhett Lashlee, who keeps staying loyal despite having offers to jump ship to bigger schools. With two seasons starting under center under his belt, one of them ending in a CFP appearance in 2024, Kevin Jennings could have his best year yet in the ACC.

SMU is a safe bet to be near the top of its conference. Whether that means they can make noise should the Mustangs get to the CFP is a different question. Enough short runs could have Lashlee reconsidering his stance on sticking at SMU for the long-haul.

No. 3: Texas A&M Aggies

Mike Elko has transformed the Texas A&M Aggies' reputation, likely turning them into a perennial CFP team. In 2025, TAMU was ranked No. 2 in third-down conversion defense, with opponents converting on just 22.2% third-down possessions.

Most notably, opponents had an average of 9.3 yards to gain on third down against the Aggies. There's unfortunately a modest ceiling in College Station because of Marcel Reed. Many felt Texas A&M's QB1 was exposed during KC Concepcion's NFL pre-draft process this offseason.

No. 2: Texas Tech Red Raiders

TTU Board of Regents Chairman Cody Campbell is going all in trying to buy a winner in Lubbock. The Red Raiders signed the most expensive portal QB in Cincinnati Bearcats transfer Brendan Sorsby and have key defenders back in the fold like DB Brice Pollock, ILB Ben Roberts, and defensive tackle A.J. Holmes.

Texas Tech should breeze through the Big 12 again and make the CFP. The Red Raiders may have enough to make a run once they get there after laying a goose egg last year. Still, there will be natural questions about whether TTU is battle-tested enough.

No. 1: Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns may be the only program in the country that went all-in more aggressively than Texas Tech. Texas is continually paying the premium it takes to keep Arch Manning in Austin, but this January, it gave him the most expensive receiver on the market, Auburn Tigers transfer Cam Coleman, as his new potential WR1.

Keeping Ryan Wingo means Manning has multiple game-breakers lining up outside. Luckily for him, the backfield also has increased star power with the portal additions of North Carolina State Wolfpack transfer Hollywood Smothers and ASU transfer Raleek Brown.

With the defense bringing on Arkansas Razorbacks DT Ian Geffrard and Rutgers Scarlet Knights corner Bo Mascoe, both sides of the ball have been bolstered. If protection holds up for Manning, this is one of the top contenders and should be one of the final teams standing next January.