ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish in 2025

Not part of the national championship picture for the last two years, the SEC is eager to retake its place as college football’s most dominant and accomplished conference, and there are plenty of teams in the running to do precisely that in the 2025 season.

ESPN has updated its 136-team college football rankings in preparation for Week 0, a database of predictive analytics that forecasts how each team and conference is expected to play out in every game of the forthcoming 2025 college football season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Here’s what the model makes of the SEC this coming season, and where each team will finish in the eventual standings in 2025.

16. Mississippi State

ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish in 2025 season — Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Prediction: 4.4 wins

Need to know: Not much faith in the Bulldogs from any prediction models after going winless in SEC play a year ago, and not returning much to build around, save quarterback Blake Shapen. Don't expect Mississippi State to be favored probably in any conference game again in 2025.

15. Vanderbilt

ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish in 2025 — Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Prediction: 5.1 wins

Need to know: Not what the Commodores are hoping for after showing such promise a year ago, but Diego Pavia is back at quarterback to lead this offense and prove this team can make another little run. The index improved its win total projection for Vandy to 5 from 4 wins, where it was earlier this preseason.

14. Kentucky

Chance to win SEC: 0.1%

Prediction: 5.2 wins

Need to know: More roster turnover for Mark Stoops, including at quarterback after signing transfer SEC journeyman Zach Calzada, but the Wildcats should have a decent run game to build out from. The computer model docked one win from Kentucky from its earlier projection, from 6 to 5 victories.

13. Oklahoma

Chance to win SEC: 0.3%

Prediction: 6.3 wins

Need to know: Brent Venables better hope he pulls off something better than a 13th place finish in the SEC. And this is just weeks after the index projected the Sooners would finish 10th, so it's losing hope in this team. Oklahoma’s transition into the league didn’t start off very well, but John Mateer at quarterback and Jaydn Ott at tailback should help boost this offense.

12. Arkansas

Chance to win SEC: 0.4%

Prediction: 5.9 wins

Need to know: Sam Pittman bought himself some time after an improved outing last year, but 7-6 won’t cut it again in 2025. Dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green will handle the offense, but he’ll have largely a new cast around him, especially on a receiver rotation undergoing serious turnover.

11. Auburn

Chance to win SEC: 0.5%

Prediction: 6.9 wins

Need to know: This is one of the SEC’s best wide receiver rooms, especially after signing transfer Eric Singleton from Georgia Tech, and former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold steps into a starting role. But the index is losing confidence in Hugh Freeze, whose Tigers ranked 8th in the conference in the initial preseason projections.

10. Missouri

Chance to win SEC: 0.8%

Prediction: 7.3 wins

Need to know: Eli Drinkwitz oversees the departure of Missouri’s most important offensive players at quarterback and receiver, but he still has a solid defensive rotation returning seven starters and gaining Georgia transfer edge rusher Damon Wilson.

9. Florida

Chance to win SEC: 1.7%

Prediction: 7.1 wins

Need to know: Not quite what the Gators are hoping for after such a strong finish to last season, including that upset over playoff hopeful Ole Miss, and returning DJ Lagway at quarterback, a solid backfield, talented receivers, and a promising defensive unit. But the index has given Florida another win in its 2025 projection, from 6 to 7 victories.

8. LSU

Chance to win SEC: 2.5%

Prediction: 7.7 wins

Need to know: This would be a major step down for Brian Kelly in his short tenure at LSU, one that fans would not tolerate. Garrett Nussmeier returns as QB1 after leading one of college football’s top aerial attacks, and Harold Perkins is back in the middle of this defense. But the index docked one percentage point from LSU in its SEC title projection, and it wasn't great to begin with.

7. South Carolina

Chance to win SEC: 3.6%

Prediction: 7.9 wins

Need to know: There’s some turnover on the Gamecocks’ elite defense, but Dylan Stewart is back on the edge and LaNorris Sellers returns as one of the SEC’s best young quarterbacks after posting 343 yards per game a year ago. The index gave Carolina another win up from its preseason projection, and doubled its chance to win the SEC title.

6. Ole Miss

Chance to win SEC: 3.8%

Prediction: 8.5 wins

Need to know: Lane Kiffin has a chance to strengthen his reign as Portal King after watching so much of the Rebels’ talent walk out the door. Not much returns on this defense, anchored at least by edge rusher Suntarine Perkins, while youngster Austin Simmons steps into Jaxson Dart’s QB1 role.

5. Texas A&M

Chance to win SEC: 4.1%

Prediction: 7.9 wins

Need to know: Marcel Reed returns to pilot what should be an improved, balanced offense with big-play talent at receiver, continuity in the run game, and one of the nation’s most experienced offensive lines, but can Reed get more efficient throwing the ball, and can the Aggies tighten up their defense on the back end?

4. Tennessee

Chance to win SEC: 6.1%

Prediction: 9.0 wins

Need to know: Joey Aguilar steps into Nico Iamaleava’s place at quarterback, and while he’s a proven producer throwing the ball, he’s also prone to turnovers. This should be another solid defense, even without James Pearce coming off the edge. But the Vols offense is still a question with new blockers, turnover in the backfield, and at receiver.

3. Alabama

Chance to win SEC: 17.8%

Prediction: 9.5 wins

Need to know: Kalen DeBoer is hovering right around 10 wins in this prediction, entering Year 2 needing to show improvement from his 9-4 debut, returning a solid defense, stellar receiving talent, and an elite offensive line, but the big question remains how well can Ty Simpson take command of the quarterback position?

2. Georgia

Chance to win SEC: 20.8%

Prediction: 9.6 wins

Need to know: Those three tough road games the Bulldogs played a year ago -- in which they went 1-2 -- are all at home this time around, against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, but Kirby Smart faces another test filling holes at quarterback and on the inside of this offensive line, and hoping to get a lot more from a rushing attack that was 15th in the SEC last fall.

1. Texas

Chance to win SEC: 37.5%

Prediction: 10.4 wins

Need to know: Arch Manning gets all the attention, but the Longhorns are stacked around him, boasting arguably the SEC’s top defense and one of college football's most menacing pass rush rotations and a group of wide receivers that are among the nation’s more promising.