LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds for SEC Tournament 1st Round

The Kentucky Wildcats dropped their final two games in the regular season to fall to 10-8 in SEC play, setting up a first-round matchup with the LSU Tigers on Wednesday.

This is a must-win for Kentucky as it looks to lock up an NCAA Tournament berth, but Mark Pope’s squad has been up and down all season long. In fact, Kentucky was down 16 points at the half against LSU earlier this season before it came back to win by one.

The Tigers finished the regular season one game under .500, and they were just 3-15 in SEC play, finishing dead last. As a result, oddsmakers have set them as 7.5-point underdogs in this first-round matchup.

Otega Oweh and the Wildcats are going to have to play better than they did the first time these teams played if they want to make some noise in the SEC Tournament to improve their seeding this March.

Let’s examine the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this first-round battle.

LSU vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

LSU +7.5 (-110)
Kentucky -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

LSU: +235
Kentucky: -290

Total

152.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

LSU vs. Kentucky How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Bridgestone Arena
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
LSU record: 15-16
Kentucky record: 19-12

LSU vs. Kentucky Key Player to Watch

Otega Oweh, Guard, Kentucky

The heartbeat of this Kentucky team, Oweh willed the team to win over LSU earlier this season, scoring 21 points on 6-of-13 shooting (3-of-6 from 3). He’s averaging 18.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.8 steals per game this season while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from 3.

Oweh has scored 23 or more points in four of his last five SEC games, including a 28-point showing in the Wildcats’ loss to Florida. Kentucky’s offense rides and dies with the senior guard, and he’ll need to have a big game if it is going to cover on Wednesday.

LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

All season long, the Wildcats have struggled to win as favorites, going 9-10 against the spread. That includes their one-point win (and non-cover) against the Tigers.

LSU is 8-6 against the spread as an underdog this season, and it may not be as bad as the team’s record indicates. LSU has the No. 52 offense in the country, per KenPom, and it’s 85th in the country in 2-point percent on offense and 66th in 2-point percentage on defense.

That could be a problem for the Wildcats, who are outside the top-100 in 3-point percentage this season, Kentucky is KenPom’s No. 27 team, as it has defended well (55th in opponent effective field goal percentage) despite some offensive struggles this season.

The Wildcats fought hard as underdogs against Florida on Saturday, but they haven’t been nearly as trustworthy when favored.

Kentucky likely wins this game, but I think LSU can keep it within two possessions.

Pick: LSU +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.