ESPN computer ranks SEC football best, worst teams entering Week 7

Where things stand in the latest SEC football power rankings heading into some important Week 7 games.

The best and worst SEC football teams entering Week 7, according to the ESPN computer prediction models. | USA Today Sports | IMAGN

Entering the second month of the 2025 college football season, it appears that the race for the crown in the SEC is still pretty wide open, looking at the latest expert power rankings in the nation’s most consequential conference moving into Week 7.

How are things shaping up in the SEC power rankings and when it comes to the very early conference championship projections going forward?

For that, let’s turn to the College Football Power Index prediction model.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

SEC football projected order of finish in Week 7

Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

16. Arkansas. Expectedly bringing up the rear in the SEC right now, the Razorbacks are in the midst of a titanic coaching change and heading into a date at Tennessee that could further despoil their win projection, which stands at just 4.2 games, the lowest mark of any team in the league right now.

15. Kentucky. Not too far ahead is a reeling Wildcats program that ranks 93rd in the country in scoring and Mark Stoops, the SEC’s longest-tenured head coach, is still just 28-65 in conference games.

14. Florida. Not even that big win against Texas last weekend was enough to buoy the FPI’s hopes in the Gators. They’re projected to win just 4.9 games, let’s call it five, meaning there are just three wins left on this schedule. Florida heads into Texas A&M this Saturday.

13. Mississippi State. Jeff Lebby’s team didn’t win an SEC game last season and still hasn’t after losses against Tennessee and Texas A&M, and the road ahead looks pretty tough, with dates at Florida, against Texas, at Arkansas, at Missouri, and at home against Georgia and Ole Miss.

Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

12. South Carolina. Only a win over Kentucky at home put the Gamecocks in the win column in SEC competition, but otherwise this is college football’s 121st-ranked rushing attack and its 94th-best scoring offense coming into October with five-straight games against ranked opponents coming up.

11. Auburn. One of the country’s worst-performing offenses, remarkable given the talent they have at wide receiver, the Tigers are 0-2 in SEC play and now come into a home date against rival Georgia.

10. Texas. What a drop for the Longhorns from the lofty heights of being the preseason SEC title favorite to now being projected to win 7.8 games amid a crisis of confidence for quarterback Arch Manning, who looks nothing like his preseason hype.

9. LSU. Branded as one of college football’s most potent offenses, this attack led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has not quite lived up to that potential, given his lingering injury issue and the absence of a ground game to balance things out. LSU is projected to win 8 games.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

8. Oklahoma. The Sooners still make the College Football Playoff in 45 percent of the computer’s simulations on the back of a strong defense, but the injury to quarterback John Mateer leaves some doubt, as OU is forecasted to win 8.3 games this season.

7. Vanderbilt. The loss at Alabama hasn’t hurt the Commodores too much given their other success. They’re expected to still win 8.4 games and have a 32 percent chance to make the playoff thanks to an efficient offense with Diego Pavia at the helm.

6. Missouri. A marquee test is coming up for the Tigers this weekend as they host Alabama, but so far this offense has looked the part, ranking among the nation’s best scoring 45 points per game with Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy leading this attack.

5. Tennessee. College football’s top-ranked scoring offense with 51 points per game on average, the Vols entertain Arkansas in a game they’ll be favored in, with a winnable schedule still to come, although games at Alabama and against Oklahoma will be key tests, and that right now cut into UT’s 8.8 game win total projection.

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

4. Georgia. Projected to win 9.4 games after the loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs sit third in the SEC title race at 10.4 percent odds to make it two-straight. A trip to Auburn is next in a series they’ve won eight-straight in, and they host Ole Miss after that.

3. Texas A&M. The computer expects the Aggies to be good for 9.5 wins as one of four SEC teams still undefeated, but a two-week road trip against LSU and Missouri will further test this team’s staying power.

2. Alabama. Some of the pressure is taken off Kalen DeBoer after two banner wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt, and this offense is starting to look more like one of his own, as Ty Simpson is playing very efficient football, throwing just one interception with 13 touchdowns in the air.

1. Ole Miss. The biggest winner in the SEC this week, at least according to the power index models, the Rebels edged out LSU at home two weeks ago to stay undefeated and become the first 3-0 team in conference play, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, the former zero-star recruit, is over 300 yards in three straight games. Tougher games at Georgia and Oklahoma lie ahead, but Ole Miss is expected to win 10.6 games in 2025.

--