The Week 2 Result That Could Matter More to the CFP Than Texas-Ohio State

While everybody was distracted by two top five teams, a Week 2 upset might carry more CFP weight.

Oklahoma State and QB Drew Mestemaker might have wreaked some havoc with the College Football Playoff in Week 2. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

College football's Week 2 had something of a magic trick-- while everybody was staring at Ohio State/Texas, the weekend's biggest game likely had more of a College Football Playoff impact. To be blunt, both Ohio State and Texas are still very much in the thick of the CFP picture. But another power team that took a horrid Week 2 loss isn't in as good of shape as the Buckeyes.

The Biggest Game of Week 2

It's Oregon that takes the drop based off the 39-31 upset from Oklahoma State. That shocking upset (Oregon was favored by over three touchdowns) figures to impact the CFP field on both ends.

Whose Business Shifts Based on Oregon/Oklahoma State?

First, the Big Ten was impacted. Ohio State and Indiana remain in excellent shape for the CFP, with 74.7% and 63.3% chances at the Playoff, per ESPN's most recent FPI ratings. But there's no third CFP team coming from the Big Ten, with Penn State and USC the most likely candidates, but none reaching a 29% chance. Oregon's chances plunged to 12.6%.

The Big 12 also probably took a bump, although the FPI odds don't necessarily show it. Texas Tech and BYU have 34.9% and 33.6% CFP chances with Utah (27.8%) and Kansas State (14.3%) the two other viable candidates. But in a year where the Big 12 has few chances to gain any ground in regard to a second CFP slot, Oklahoma State's win will help every team they play down through the league schedule, as the conference's teams will all then benefit from a strong win over the Big Ten.

The Potential CFP Field

At the present, the most likely College Football Playoff field would include Ohio State and Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, a group of Five representative, a Big 12 representative, and six SEC teams. But six SEC teams would be a massive statement for a league that hasn't won the last three Playoffs. Indeed, Tennessee (27.5%) would currently slate as the sixth SEC team and that's certainly not particularly likely.

So Saturday's winners ultimately included the best teams in the Big 12, Penn State or USC, and perhaps another team from the SEC. The losers-- well, it's an Oregon team that now has much less room to navigate a challenging Big Ten schedule. While Texas and Ohio State drew all the headlines, don't be surprised if Oregon/Oklahoma State isn't the game that reverberates through the CFP in the end.