Rece Davis reveals his way-too-early prediction for Texas-Oklahoma Red River Rivalry game

On an episode of the College GameDay podcast this week, Rece Davis, Pete Thamel and Dan Wetzel discussed the upcoming Texas vs. Oklahoma matchup now that Sooner QB John Mateer is in jeopardy of missing the Red River Rivalry on Oct. 11 thanks to hand surgery.

However, when Thamel asked the group who ought to be favored in the neutral site showdown as of right now, Rece Davis answered persuasively that while Texas could get the Vegas nod, he sees Oklahoma as the more rightful favorite in the matchup, at least based on what we've seen so far out of the two sides.

"If I were picking who I thought would win the game, I’d probably make Oklahoma a 3.5-point favorite," Davis shared, explaining why he believes his pick won't come to fruition.

"My sense is that the oddsmakers will say that people like to bet on Texas and that Texas will be a small, small favorite, 1.5, 2.5, somewhere in there," Davis continued. "That’s my sense. And it will be solely because of their belief — if this is accurate — that people like to bet on Texas."

Davis views Texas as the more public team, which is likely true this season thanks to their No. 1 preseason rating and Arch Manning's celebrity profile at QB. But if Rece Davis was the CEO of FanDuel, it'd be Oklahoma with the slight nod over the Longhorns.

"I would probably favor Oklahoma by a field goal or something like that, just if I’m picking a score," he explained. "If we get to that week and we’re picking the score, I’ll probably pick Oklahoma to win by a field goal to a touchdown, absent things changing a lot."

Well, Mateer's status could change quite a bit and that may throw a wrench into Rece Davis' prediction. But so could the development of Texas quarterback Arch Manning, who started off excetionally poor in 2025 but did show signs of life in the team's Week 4 win over a pitiful Sam Houston squad. If he thrives in SEC play en route to Red River, then Texas could win back support as the rightful favorite, even in Davis' eyes.

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