Arch Manning Tanking in No. 1 NFL Draft Prediction Market on Kalshi

Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s number one overall pick stock in the 2027 NFL Draft is sliding. Kalshi’s NFL Draft market now has Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith favored to land first overall and Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker as the new QB1 on the board.

Manning’s price is down 15%, going from 31% to 16% following Week 4. He now sits with the third-highest price on the board. Smith is favored at 22% and Mestemaker at 18%. A $10 trade on Manning going first overall pays $45.56 if he is the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

2027 NFL Draft #1 Overall Pick - Kalshi

Jeremiah Smith 22%
Drew Mestemaker 18%
Arch Manning 16%
CJ Carr 15%
Darian Mensah 12%

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Fading away

Manning’s No. 1 price peaked at 31% following Texas’ win over Ohio State. In that game, Manning led an incredible comeback. After trailing 23-3 in the third quarter, the Longhorns stormed back to win 24-23. Manning finished the game with 195 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and an interception.

Following the win, though, Manning’s numbers have slipped. He followed up the win over Ohio State with 161 passing yards and two TD passes at a 50% completion rate against UTSA in Week 3. At Tennessee in Week 4, he threw for 201 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.

His totals for the season are 862 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, and three interceptions at a 63.5% completion rate.

Jumping ahead

Playing a hand in Manning sliding down is Jeremiah Smith. Smith is on pace for a career year with 617 receiving yards and seven touchdowns this season. Both of those marks lead the country. He’s averaging 154.2 yards per game and is on pace for over 1,800 yards and over 20 touchdowns. He's the new Heisman favorite.

The Drew Mestemaker jump is one to keep an eye on. His numbers are well beyond Manning's -- 1,271 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 106 rushing yards, and a rushing score. Just last season, Mestemaker led the country with 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns at North Texas. Now that he’s made the jump to a Power Conference team in Oklahoma State and is top-5 in passing yards. NFL analysts are starting to take notice.

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