ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish after Alabama, Texas losses

The opening weekend of the 2025 college football season found plenty of upheaval not only in the national rankings, and also somewhat across the SEC.

Two of the conference’s standard bearers, Alabama and Texas, came out of their season openers on the losing end of things in unwelcome results that put both their coaches under some fire.

But apparently not enough to seriously change what the eventual SEC football standings will look like, at least according to one of college football’s most controversial prediction models.

Kalen DeBoer suddenly finds himself in the cross hairs of a very impatient fan base after leading Alabama to a two-touchdown loss on the road against unranked Florida State, coming into that game as nearly two-touchdown favorites.

Now just 9-5 in his tenure as Nick Saban’s successor, DeBoer faces an avalanche of criticism surrounding his ability to build a program that can live up to the name Alabama built for itself during this century.

Things aren’t quite so dire for Texas, which came into the 2025 season ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls for the first time ever, and set to debut Arch Manning as its long-term starting quarterback, himself the subject of impossible and relentless hype.

But after a loss at reigning national champion Ohio State, both he and the Longhorns are already behind in the game after Manning’s lackluster performance.

But apparently not behind, or even having moved, in the latest SEC football predictions offered up by ESPN’s College Football Power Index computer prediction model.

Texas fell six spots to No. 7 in the latest AP rankings, but stayed put atop the ESPN computer’s poll and when it comes to the model’s SEC projections going forward.

ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish

16. Mississippi State

Win projection: 4.7 games

All preseason bringing up the rear in the SEC projections, the Bulldogs at least started 1-0 after beating Southern Miss.

15. Vanderbilt

Win projection: 5.3 games

Vandy knocked off Charleston Southern in a convincing win as Diego Pavia hit 275 yards, but goes to Virginia Tech next.

14. Kentucky

Win projection: 5.0 games

The third and final team with a 0 percent chance to win the SEC this season, the Wildcats edged Toledo in the opener and get Ole Miss at home this weekend.

13. Arkansas

Win projection: 5.5 games

The model gives the Razorbacks an 0.2 percent chance to win the SEC despite an impressive win over Alabama A&M, but games at Ole Miss and Memphis, followed by a home date against Notre Dame, are still coming.

12. Oklahoma

Win projection: 6.0 games

A dismal projection for the Sooners, whose offense looked much improved in the opener as John Mateer set an OU debut record for passing, but the index gives the Sooners just an 0.4 percent shot to win the conference.

11. Florida

Win projection: 6.8 games

Likewise for the Gators, who expect a lot more from this season than 7 wins with DJ Lagway back to pilot an agile offense, but they have a mere 1.6 percent shot at the SEC.

10. Missouri

Win projection: 8.0 games

Just a 2 percent chance to win the SEC for the Tigers, who play their first six games at home, but whose quarterback, Sam Horn, is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

9. Alabama

Win projection: 6.8 games

Bama got pummeled in ESPN’s projections, originally expected to win 9 or 10 games, down to an expected 7 victories with a 2.1 percent shot at the SEC title. An overreaction to one game? We’ll see.

ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish 2025 — Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

8. Texas A&M

Win projection: 7.5 games

The Aggies edged out the Tide by 0.1 percentage points in the very early SEC title chase after Marcel Reed threw a personal-best 4 TDs in the opener.

7. Auburn

Win projection: 8.3 games

Jackson Arnold looked the part in his debut for the Tigers, leading the SEC in rushing across Week 1 in an important road win against Big 12 title hopeful Baylor.

6. South Carolina

Win projection: 8.4 games

Cam Newton comparisons are getting louder after watching LaNorris Sellers lead the Gamecocks to a win over the Hokies on the back of a little Beamerball.

5. LSU

Win projection: 8.5 games

A disappointing projection for LSU after a statement win at No. 4 Clemson that showcased what looks like a more confident, hard-hitting defense, but the models give Brian Kelly’s team just a 4.1 percent chance to win the SEC.

4. Tennessee

Win projection: 9.5 games

A vote of confidence for the Volunteers, and for quarterback Joey Aguilar, who passed for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Big Orange is just under 10 percent odds to win the conference.

3. Ole Miss

Win projection: 9.8 games

The ESPN model has been high on the Rebels all offseason when forming its future projections, and gives them a 16.7 percent chance at the SEC crown after Austin Simmons threw 3 touchdown passes to demolish Georgia State.

2. Georgia

Win projection: 9.9 games

Beating up on Marshall won’t tell us too much about the Bulldogs, but they’re still expected to play for the SEC title with 26.9 percent likelihood, but with some critical home games upcoming against Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss to test them.

1. Texas

Win projection: 9.6 games

That’s right, the Longhorns are still the class of the SEC despite losing to the Buckeyes again. Manning still has plenty of breathing room for improvement, and this defense will be one of college football’s best down the stretch.