College Football HQ

$5 million quarterback market predicted amid transfer portal frenzy

Rowan Fisher Shotton|
Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) greets the team as the walk into the stadium before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium.
Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) greets the team as the walk into the stadium before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Ahead of Texas A&M’s first-round College Football Playoff game against Miami at Kyle Field, ESPN insider Pete Thamel offered a striking update on the state of the college football quarterback market.

Speaking on College GameDay, Thamel reported that sources believe the top of the transfer-portal quarterback market “could reach $5 million for one season,” citing Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, TCU’s Josh Hoover, Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, and Florida’s DJ Lagway as early marquee entries.

"It's supply and demand," Thamel said. "You have all those guys. Sorsby's been linked early to Texas Tech. Dylan Raiola, there's some smoke to Louisville, although maybe a playoff team jumps in late. There have been early links between Indiana and Hoover, assuming that (Fernando) Mendoza goes pro."

"Oregon may lose Dante Moore. Miami will be in the quarterback market again. So will LSU. So when you really take a look at what could drive this quarterback market, it's going to be the most expensive in the history of college football."

Several elite quarterbacks have already posted multi-million NIL valuations with reported figures around $2M–$2.5M for names like Sam Leavitt ($2.1 million), Brendan Sorsby ($2.4 million), and Dylan Raiola ($2.5 million). 

Meanwhile, programs chasing immediate playoff or bowl relevance have shown willingness to assemble seven-figure packages to land a proven starter.

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby walks off the field after defeating the Baylor Bears at Nippert Stadium. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Thamel also noted Saturday that “seven of the last nine Heisman winners have come from the portal,” underscoring the growing value programs place on landing elite transfer quarterbacks.

Those transfer winners include Baker Mayfield (transferred to Oklahoma; 2017), Kyler Murray (to Oklahoma; 2018), Joe Burrow (to LSU; 2019), Caleb Williams (to USC; 2022), Jayden Daniels (to LSU; 2023), Travis Hunter (to Colorado; 2024), and Fernando Mendoza (to Indiana; 2025). 

The two who did not transfer in that span are DeVonta Smith (2020) and Bryce Young (2021). 

With CFP timelines demanding immediate results, programs view elite transfers as lower-risk, win-now investments.

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Rowan Fisher
ROWAN FISHER SHOTTON

Rowan Fisher-Shotton is a versatile journalist known for sharp analysis, player-driven storytelling, and quick-turn coverage across CFB, CBB, the NBA, WNBA, and NFL. A Wilfrid Laurier alum and lifelong athlete, he’s written for FanSided, Pro Football Network, Athlon Sports, and Newsweek, tackling every beat with both a reporter’s edge and a player’s eye.

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