Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr.: Who Is the AL MVP Right Now?

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With Memorial Day now behind us, it's a good point to evaluate where things stand around the league. This is good from a standings perspective, trade market stand point and even from the perspective of the various award races around the league.
Now, of course, there's a lot of time left for things to change. If the season were to end today, the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, and Athletics would make the playoffs as the American League division winners. The New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins would make the playoffs in the Wild Card spots. It's a weak field that surely will shift. Only the Rays, Yankees and Guardians are at least five games above .500.
So, that's what the playoffs look like. What about the race for the American League Most Valuable Player Award? That's going to be even more fascinating. Last year, it was Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh over the course of the 2025 campaign. Raleigh smacked 60 homers, but it wasn't enough to get past Judge.
While the hulking Yankees slugger has cooled of late, he'll surely be in the mix for the award later on in the season. Another guy who currently looks like a contender is Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals. In fact, ESPN's Bradford Doolittle called him the "front-runner" for the award.
Who Should Have The Nod?

"Witt has had a pedestrian start at the plate, posting a batting average and on-base percentage in line with past seasons but with an isolated power number that's down — or at least it will be until he goes on a power tear," Doolittle wrote. "So, why is Witt a strong early frontrunner in this category? He's just really, really good -- at everything. According to FanGraphs' DEF metric, Witt has been the most valuable defender in the major leagues. He is seventh in BSR, FanGraphs' bottom-line baserunning metric. He's a shortstop, with the positional value that goes with that designation."
Witt has been great, but should he be the front-runner for the award with Kansas City sitting at 22-32? Let's take a look at how he compares to Judge.
Name | Slash Line | OPS | Home Runs | RBIs | Stolen Bases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Judge, NYY | .250/.377/.556 | .933 | 17 | 32 | 5 |
Bobby Witt Jr., KCR | .294/.360/.481 | .841 | 8 | 24 | 16 |
Now, of course, there are plenty more stats than just the ones above. Witt is leading the league with 63 base hits. Judge is leading the league with 41 runs scored. Witt is third in the league in general in wins above replacement at 3.4. Judge is at 2.2, which is tied for 30th in the league.
Right now, the statistics tend to agree with Doolittle's point. On May 26, Witt should be considered the favorite for the American League Most Valuable Player Award. But, we can't forget that the Royals are 22-32. If the Yankees end up being the best team in the American League and Judge can get his numbers up a bit, that could be enough to move him past Witt if the Royals star is near the bottom of the standings.
Again, Witt should be considered the favorite right now. But there isn't a massive difference.
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Patrick McAvoy's experiences include local and national sports coverage at the New England Sports Network with a focus on baseball and basketball. Outside of journalism, Patrick also received an MBA at Brandeis University. For all business/marketing inquiries regarding Fastball On SI, please reach out to Scott Neville: scott@moreviewsmedia.com