How Latest Update on Tarik Skubal Trade Rumors Impacts AL Playoff Picture

Any MLB team interested in trying to acquire Detroit Tigers star pitcher Tarik Skubal might not enjoy the latest update on the likelihood of a trade in the near future.

Skubal is entering his final year under contract with the Tigers as a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner and one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's coming off consecutive seasons with a sub-2.40 ERA, 31 starts made, at least 192 innings pitched, and over 225 strikeouts.

That makes the notion of the Tigers even possibly contemplating moving Skubal elsewhere incredibly intriguing. But for now, the odds of the 29-year-old being dealt this year are "not great," according to New York Post columnist Jon Heyman. The MLB Network insider said the price of a Skubal trade is "understandably high" and added "it would take a lot" to get a deal done.

Whether Skubal remains with the Tigers for at least this season or is traded to another team, either outcome will undoubtedly have a massive impact on the league's playoff picture in 2026.

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What the AL Central race looks like with and without Skubal

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) celebrates with teammates after 6-3 win over Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of AL wild-card series at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It may sound simplistic, but if Skubal remains with Detroit for all of 2026, the Tigers should be considered one of the favorites to win the American League Central. They came just one game short of achieving that feat last year, and that was after Detroit's late-season collapse in conjunction with a remarkable second-half push by the Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers got the last laugh, though, by eliminating Cleveland in the Wild Card Series.

But the AL Central race and playoff picture as a whole could drastically shift if another team offers the substantial prospect package reportedly necessary to pry Skubal from Detroit. If the two-time Cy Young Award winner were to be traded outside of the AL Central, that would seemingly give the Guardians and Kansas City Royals better odds of claiming a division title. And that's not even factoring in Skubal's potential destination.

If Skubal got sent to an AL East or AL West contender, that would have huge ramifications on those division races. If he's dealt to an NL team, the entire playoff picture in both leagues is altered as well. While it's difficult to get too specific when dealing with pure speculation, it's no exaggeration to say Skubal is the type of pitcher who's talented enough to affect the entire league's standings based on which team he calls home in 2026.

And with each pitch he throws this year, Skubal could have a massive impact on the free agent pitcher market next offseason, as well as his own contract negotiations if an in-season extension isn't reached.

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