OPINION: Chicago Cubs Overpaid for Ian Happ Contract Extension

Wednesday, the Chicago Cubs announced that they signed left fielder Ian Happ to a three-year, $61 million contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026.

Over the past three weeks, the Cubs front office did something it was unable to do with its last core: sign starting position players to extensions. Less than two years ago, the nucleus that helped the Cubs win the 2016 World Series was entirely dissembled. The club traded away Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo, not long after nontendering Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Albert Almora Jr. Upon the conclusion of last season, the Cubs released Jason Heyward, making Kyle Hendricks the last remaining member of the Cubs' 2016 team.

The Cubs once had the look of a team like the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers that would be perennially competitive, in the mix for a Pennant year in and year out. For the last year and a half, they've been in rebuild mode.

Since cutting ties with Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, the Cubs have received a great amount of pushback from fans on the northside of Chicago. Fans have voiced their discontentment with the club on social media; they don't seem to have the patience to sit through another full-scale rebuild, even if a full-scale rebuild would allow the Cubs to architect a team akin to the one fans fell in love with in 2015 and 2016.

After teasing that the club could be a major player in the offseason and hearing fans call the organization 'cheap' — despite having one of the three highest payrolls in the National League from 2018 through 2020, and winning zero playoff games during that time period — the Cubs put their money where their mouth is over the winter. The Cubs signed star shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract and veteran pitcher Jameson Taillon to a four-year, $68 million deal. The club also stockpiled a number of established veterans, such as Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart, Drew Smyly and Eric Hosmer, to fill out their roster.

Swanson received virtually the same deal as the one that departed star third baseman Kris Bryant agreed to with the Colorado Rockies (seven years, $182 million).

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained active as the winter turned to spring, locking up infielder Nico Hoerner to a contract extension through 2026. Wednesday, the club announced that Happ won't hit free agency until the same time Hoerner does.

Happ seemed to believe that he would be traded prior to the 2022 trade deadline, as he and catcher Willson Contreras shared an emotional embrace in what they both appeared to believe would be their last game at Wrigley Field.

With Seiya Suzuki under contract through 2026 and three top-100 outfield prospects in the Cubs' farm system, it was difficult to see where Happ might fit into the club's long-term plans.

In 2021, Happ was playing so poorly that midway through the season, Cubs manager David Ross placed him on the bench. Happ entered the month of September slashing .199/.299/.681 on the season. Some even speculated that the Cubs might nontender him at season's end.

Happ remarkably turned it around and put together a career year in 2022, slashing .271/.342/.781 with 17 home runs and 72 RBI and earning All-Star and Gold Glove honors for the first time in his career. Wednesday he was handsomely rewarded.

Happ's AAV of $20 million that will kick in in 2024 will make him the third-highest annually paid left fielder in baseball, behind Juan Soto and Christian Yelich.

The Cubs must believe that 2022 wasn't a flash in the pan, and that Happ has turned a corner and is entering his prime. At the plate, he's picked up where he left off in 2022, reaching base safely in each of his first ten games. Defensively, however, he's rated the way he has throughout his entire career, as a minus-glove. Through 11 games, Happ has -2 Defensive Runs Saved. Happ rated extremely well last season, with 14 DRS, but in every other season of his career, he's posted a minus total in the outfield. He also has a tendency to slide and lay out for fly balls that other outfielders catch on their feet, which boosts his statcast and DRS total. It will be interesting to see if Happ continues to excel in the outfield, as he did a season ago.

In Happ's breakout year, in which he was named an All-Star for the first time in his career, the switch-hitter batted .271 with a .342 On Base Percentage. Those are very good numbers, but not generally the numbers I associated with a guy that is among the three-highest paid players at his position. And that was the best year of his career. For his career, he's slashed .250/.340/.800.

I expected Happ's next contract to look similar to the five-year, $75 million deal that Andrew Benintendi signed with the Chicago White Sox last winter. Benintendi, the same age as Happ, was selected two picks before the Cubs left fielder in the 2015 MLB Draft. Benintendi is also a one-time All-Star and Gold Glover, but has better track record both offensively and defensively. Benintendi poses a career slash line of .278/.351/.779. Last season, he batted .304 with a .373 On Base Percentage. Benintendi has a career 32 DRS in left field, which is double Happ's total of 16.

Happ may not have received the same length as Benintendi in his new deal, but he did receive a much higher AAV.

The Cubs have now effectively committed two outfield positions to Happ and Suzuki through 2026, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (MLB Pipeline's no. 26 prospect), Kevin Alcantara (no. 81) and Brennen Davis (no. 86) coming up through the pipeline. Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara and Davis are the organization's three best prospects per MLB Pipeline. Now it appears there will only be room for one of them to play everyday in the outfield, unless the Cubs plan to use Happ or Suzuki in the Designated Hitter position.

Happ's extension could be indicative of what the front office thinks of its outfield prospects. Perhaps they're concerned about Davis, given his injury-riddled 2022 season. Perhaps they're not sold on Alcantara, and plan to use him as a trade chip. Extending Happ could also indicate that the front office believes Happ will continue to progress and become a perennial All-Star player. One thing it does, however, is it communicates to fans that the team believes it will compete soon, if not now. The Cubs are off to an impressive 6-5 start through their first four series of the season.

North siders were not happy that the club was unable to keep fan favorites Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber or Javier Baez in Chicago. Now, the Cubs lock up one of their own homegrown talents, and perhaps buy some goodwill with the fan base.

Happ wasn't a part of the Cubs' 2016 run and hasn't received the same level of fanfare as the beloved Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Schwarber did. However, he has carved out a following (91.3K Twitter followers), thanks in part to his business ventures off the field, paired with his impressive play in 2022. Happ has a baseball podcast and coffee company. Extending Happ and Hoerner communicates to the fans that the Cubs will attempt to keep their players as free agency approaches.

Extending Happ isn't a dangerous risk to take, given that his contract will expire when he hits age-32. It's a short-term deal that won't sting the club if it doesn't pan out. Still, Happ will be paid like a top-3 left fielder for the next three years, which feels like an overpay. He hasn't put together a large enough body of work to warrant being paid like a star. If he continues to progress and transforms into a perennial All-Star and Gold Glover, it will be money well-spent.

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