My Two Cents: My Annual '3 Up/3 Down' Picks on Team Win Totals
At long last, Opening Day has arrived, and it's bringing lots of changes with it. Aside from all 30 teams starting on the same day for the first time since 1968, we've got a pitch clock now and new rules against the shift. The game is changing dramatically.
What hasn't changed is the universal euphoria that spreads all across the country on Opening Day. Everyone is excited that baseball is back, and they have high hopes for their teams, at least on Thursday.
Every year, I review the projected win totals for each team from our friends at Fanduel and pick three teams that I think will go over, and three that I think will struggle. Last year, all three of my ''overs'' covered the number, the Mets, Yankees and Guardians.
Of my three ''unders,'' the White Sox and Red Sox failed to cover and I got those right. My only miss was the Cubs, who I thought would go under 73.5 but finished with 74 with a win on the final day of the season.
Five out of six isn't bad. I feel pretty good about my choices this year, too. So let's take a look at the win totals for all 30 teams from Fanduel, and then get to my picks.
Here are the win total projections courtesy of our friends at Fanduel.
- NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST:
- Atlanta Braves: 95.5
- New York Mets: 93.5
- Philadelphia Phillies: 88.5
- Miami Marlins: 75.5
- Washington Nationals: 58.5
- AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST:
- New York Yankees: 93.5
- Toronto Blue Jays: 91.5
- Tampa Bay Rays: 89.5
- Boston Red Sox: 78.5
- Baltimore Orioles: 76.5
- NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL:
- St. Louis Cardinals: 88.5
- Milwaukee Brewers: 86.5
- Chicago Cubs: 76.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 67.5
- Cincinnati Reds: 65.5
- AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL:
- Cleveland Guardians: 86.5
- Minnesota Twins: 84.5
- Chicago White Sox: 83.5
- Detroit Tigers: 69.5
- Kansas City Royals: 68.5
- NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 96.5
- San Diego Padres: 93.5
- San Francisco Giants: 81.5
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 75.5
- Colorado Rockies: 64.5
- AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST:
- Houston Astros: 95.5
- Seattle Mariners: 86.5
- Los Angeles Angels: 82.5
- Texas Rangers: 81.5
- Oakland Athletics: 59.5
Three teams that go over
- 1. TAMPA BAY RAYS (89.5): I get it that they play in the American League East and the Yankees and Blue Jays are very good, but the Rays' starting pitching is so good that they are going to go long stretches this season by shutting teams down night after night. The bullpen is still very good too, and I think they definitely score more runs with Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe healthy all year. Randy Arozarena is my darkhorse MVP candidate and I feel really good about them winning 90 or more.
- 2. ATLANTA BRAVES (95.5): The Braves won 101 games last year — and got better. Having Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies healthy makes a big difference, and Sean Murphy is a nice add behind the plate. I also think they'll benefit from the Mets and Phillies having to deal with some serious injuries, with closer Edwin Diaz gone for the year and the Phillies losing Rhys Hopkins (ACL). The Braves are my World Series pick in the NL, and I think getting to 96 or more will happen.
- 3. SEATTLE MARINERS (86.5): Seattle ended a two-decade playoff drought last year and seem set to sticking around in October now. Being able to sign Luis Castillo was a huge deal because he is absolutely an ace. Behind him, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray and George Kirby all have good stuff, too. Julio Rodriguez just might be the best young player in baseball and Teoscar Hernandez will make the lineup better. I look at them as a 90-win team, and will cover this easily.
There were two teams that I looked closely at for this list, but couldn't get them into the top three. I do think the Twins are better than 84.5 wins if they can hit enough, and I looked long and hard at the Rangers and Padres. It was a tough call, but my top three were really tough to get away from.
Three teams that go under
- 1. BOSTON RED SOX (78.5): The Red Sox are in transition mode and now they're dealing with a lot of injuries right out of the gate. There's no Trevor Story, and most of their starting pitchers are on the injured list to start the season. Sure, they aren't supposed to be out long, but it won't surprise me if they struggle in April and then can't catch up in May and June when the schedule gets brutal. I just can't see them getting to 79 wins, not with how good that division is and how other AL teams like Seattle, Texas and Minnesota are going to be better, too.
- 2. LOS ANGELES ANGELS (82.5): The Angels have the two best players in baseball in Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, but I don't think the rest of their roster is capable of contending for a playoff spot. They only won 73 games last year, and I don't see a 10-game improvement here, even with adding Tyler Anderson to the rotation. Plus, if they get off to a slow start, there is going to be this incessant story line about what to do with Ohtani, who is in the final year of his contract. He might wind up signing the biggest free agent deal ever, so the question is do the Angels let him walk without compensation? Could we see a big trade-deadline deal? If that happens, there's no way they get to 83.
- 3. DETROIT TIGERS (69.5): There is very little to like for me about the Detroit Tigers. They have a bottom-five lineup, a bottom-five rotation and questions in their bullpen. I also think the Guardians, Twins and White Sox are better, and they all are going to beat up on the Tigers this season. Getting past 65 wins will be tough.
I really though the Reds would make this list when I started, and I probably feel worse about that than anything. I'm a little worried too about the Mets, who are really going to miss Edwin Diaz in the closer role.
He's one of the top five or 10 players in all of baseball and now he's out for the year after getting injured celebrating a win in the World Baseball Classic. All the roles change in that bullpen now, and I'll be curious to see how they all handle that. A ton of talent on that team, but there might be some bumps.
Related stories on Opening Day
- AL EAST PODCAST: Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees are hoping to repeat as American League East champions, but the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have other ideas. Here's our Fastball on FanNation preview, with an 18-minute video from publisher Tom Brew and AL East reporter Brady Farkas. CLICK HERE
- NL EAST PODCAST: The Atlanta Braves are the favorite to repeat as division champs, but the New York Mets are a real threat, even after losing closer Edwin Diaz for the season. The Philadelphia Phillies got to the World Series and look even better after adding Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and some bullpen help. Here's our Fastball on FanNation preview, with a video from publisher Tom Brew and NL East reporter Brady Farkas. CLICK HERE
- OPENING DAY STARTERS: The 30 starting pitchers for Opening Day next Thursday have all been announced and there are a lot of high-profile matchups, as you would expect to start the season. Here are all the matchups in the 15 games. CLICK HERE
