UFC 300 Predictions: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill, Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

Sports Illustrated's MMA Knockout staff offers up UFC 300 predictions for the main card.

Author:
Fernando Quiles Jr.
Apr 12, 2024

We have finally made it to UFC 300, and the MMA Knockout crew is putting all chips on the table for main card predictions.

UFC 300 will be a historic card held inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on April 13. This card is stacked from top to bottom with a slew of noteworthy names from the very first preliminary bout all the way to the main event.

Alex Pereira puts his UFC Light Heavyweight Championship at stake against former titleholder Jamahal Hill. Plus Zhang Weili defends her strawweight gold against Yan Xiaonan. We've also got Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway for BMF hardware, Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan, and the return of Bo Nickal.

Forget the rest of the formalities, it's time for UFC 300 picks!

Alex Pereira (c) vs. Jamahal Hill - for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

undefined — Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill stare down before UFC 300.

(via Zuffa LLC)

Fernando Quiles Jr: While Hill is dangerous in his own right, he has never faced someone with the striking pedigree that Pereira has. I can see "Poatan" chopping down the legs of Hill with kicks before firing off upstairs. I'm also not sure how Hill is going to look coming off the Achilles injury, so I believe things are a bit more certain with Pereira, who I feel will score the TKO finish at some point. (Pick: Pereira)

Mathew Riddle: I think Hill is a live dog in this fight, his quirky striking and ruthless power are a mean combo --- Pereira also leaves his chin on a platter.
That said, skill-for-skill 'Poatan' should have every advantage, I also just like him more as a champ and a fighter, so I'm picking him to win. (Pick: Pereira)

Drew Beaupré: It’s not the mind-blowing main event that was promised when UFC 300 was still coming together, but this is still an intriguing title bout in a division that’s been in constant flux since Jon Jones left it. I would love to see Hill come out and surprise everyone by testing Pereira’s grappling, but as confident as “Sweet Dreams” is in his hands I have to back the champion if this fight stays standing. (Pick: Pereira)

Zain Bando: Alex Pereira’s activity is going to play huge dividends when he fights Jamahal Hill Saturday night. Hill has been out for nine months and ring rust has proven to be a factor in returns from major injury. Just ask Anderson Silva. Nevertheless, Pereira is more well-rounded and should be able to use angles and feints to find an opening, secure a finish, and show why he is the true champion. (Pick: Pereira)

Christopher De Santiago: This fight between Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereira is simply a toss-up. While Hill is more well-rounded and has more ways to win, there is no denying that Pereira’s left hook can be a game-changer at any point of the fight. However, the younger Hill is no slouch on the feet, with 7 KO’s to his name and has never been knocked out in his pro career. I believe Hill’s distance management will play a huge factor and think the longer fight goes, the more it is in his favor. Jamahal Hill by TKO in the championship rounds. (Pick: Hill)

Consensus: 4-1, Alex Pereira

Zhang Weili (c) vs. Yan Xiaonan - for the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship

Fernando Quiles Jr: I find it hard to imagine Yan being able to stop the blitzes of Zhang. Unless Weili rushes in and gets caught right on the sweet spot I think this one will be all Zhang. Yan simply isn't known for her power, and Zhang has it in spades. Yan can survive to go the distance, but a win seems out of reach here. (Pick: Weili)

Mathew Riddle: What tilts this fight for me is Zhang's well-roundedness. Yan looked phenomenal against Andrade but she's only a few years detached from being controlled and TKO'd by Carla Esparza. Defeating Mackenzie Dern on the title path doesn't prove to me that she can defend against the type of pace Zhang utilized in her last title defense. (Pick: Weili)

Drew Beaupré: The excitement people had around Zhang’s fights while I was living in Beijing was staggering, and I absolutely hate the fact that the UFC couldn’t keep this fight on the backburner to headline a card in China. It’s still a historic matchup that deserves its place on this massive card, and hopefully “Magnum” will have the chance to defend her belt in China at some point in the near future.
(Pick: Weili)

Zain Bando: Weili Zhang is the best strawweight in the world and it isn’t even a debate. She’s better everywhere and is fighting a version of Xiaonan Yan who defeated an aging Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern, who last secured a victory in May 2023. Zhang’s resume is much stronger, and if she puts everything together, it could be a bad night for Yan. (Pick: Weili)

Christopher De Santiago: Zhang Weili should be able to handle whatever storm Yan Xiaonan brings on the feet with a storm of her own in the grappling department. I believe Zhang’s key to victory is to showcase her wrestling, land damage from top position while keeping her distance on the feet, mixing up the martial arts altogether. Xiaonan, while she has grown as a fighter, has shown previous weakness in her grappling and lack of takedown defense against Carla Esparza. Look for Zhang to exploit that. Zhang by decision. (Pick: Weili)

Consensus: 5-0, Zhang Weili

Justin Gaethje (c) vs. Max Holloway - for the BMF Championship

Fernando Quiles Jr: When Max Holloway last tried his hand in the lightweight division, he quickly realized the difference in punching power between 145-pounders and 155-pounders. Holloway was just as tough as anyone expected against Dustin Poirier, but the damage he was taking looked far different than his battles at featherweight. I think history repeats itself, but this time Gaethje actually stops "Blessed" to maintain his symbolic BMF Championship. (Pick: Gaethje)

Mathew Riddle: For a while there I thought Gaethje might be the guy to KO Max, but with the fact he's 35 and a 'title' holder at lightweight, my weird obsession with the over-35 stat took over. Pair this with Holloway looking beastly in recent training footage, and I think we have a recipe for an upset. (Pick: Holloway)

Drew Beaupré: Legitimacy and value of the ‘BMF’ belt aside, this is a sensational matchup that so many fans have rightfully picked as the clear frontrunner for Fight of the Night. The MMA math suggests that Gaethje should get the job done following his rematch with Dustin Poirier and Holloway’s last trip up to lightweight, but I’m going to side with “Blessed” to pull off the upset in what should be a violent affair. (Pick: Holloway)

Zain Bando: This fight is what MMA is all about. Two brawlers without a care in the world regarding stamina, weaknesses, or hearts of champions. The argument could very well be made that Justin Gaethje should be fighting Islam Makhachev next, but both him and Max Holloway recognize that they are there to entertain the fans, which is exactly what will happen Saturday night. I just think Holloway’s boxing is a bit crisper and he will edge out a close, highly-debated decision that will have T-Mobile Arena on edge the second Bruce Buffer declares a winner. (Pick: Holloway)

Christopher De Santiago: Max Holloway’s unbreakable chin faces its biggest test to date in the form of Justin Gaethje. “Blessed” has never been knocked down in his UFC career and I believe that fact will stay intact on Saturday night, but it won’t be easy. Gaethje has the power advantage but I believe Holloway’s volume and speed will work wonders for him in this five-round fight. Holloway by a grueling, gritty TKO later in the fight. (Pick: Holloway)

Consensus: 4-1, Max Holloway

Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Fernando Quiles Jr: Hopefully Oliveira is on point for this fight and we don't get a showing similar to his failed title defense against Islam Makhachev. This will be a fun one in the grappling department and on the feet, but I feel Tsarukyan is well-rounded enough to avoid a submission and keep "do Bronx" honest on the feet. I'll take Tsarukyan in what should be a fun and competitive scrap. (Pick: Tsarukyan)

Mathew Riddle: This fight is a coinflip to me since both men are dangerous in all areas. I think Oliveira falters in terms of his reaction to damage, and Tsarukyan was extra aggressive in his last fight, so I give the edge to the Armenian. (Pick: Tsarukyan)

Drew Beaupré: This might be the most difficult fight to pick on the entire card. On paper it looks like Oliveira is being fed to a rising contender so that Tsarukyan can finally earn his first shot at the belt, and stylistically it’s hard to give either man an edge over the other. I’m hoping the fight goes long enough for both lightweights to show off their considerable skills, and although I do think the current betting odds are far too wide I’ll pick Tsarukyan to get the biggest win of his career. (Pick: Tsarukyan)

Zain Bando: Charles Oliveira is on a revenge tour and arguably one fight away from another shot at attempting to reclaim his lightweight belt. Arman Tsarukyan has won four-straight and is riding momentum since his last loss in June 2022, most recently defeating Beneil Dariush in one-sided fashion. Whoever makes the first mistake is going to ultimately lose, and Oliveira’s championship pedigree will ultimately be too much for Tsarukyan to handle. (Pick: Oliveira)

Christopher De Santiago: Unlike other fighters Charles Oliveira has faced in the last few years, Arman Tsarukyan isn’t afraid to go to the ground with the former champion, at least, that’s what he claims. Tsarukyan has showcased his knockout power in his last fight vs. Beneil Dariush and I believe it’s going to be on full display Saturday night.

Oliveira tends to get knocked down early in the fight, with fighters like Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje not following it up on the ground. I think Tsarukyan will put the metaphorical nails in the coffin by finishing the fight with ground and pound, though he does have to be weary of Oliveira’s slick submission game. Tsarukyan by TKO in under 2.5 rounds. (Pick: Tsarukyan)

Consensus: 4-1, Arman Tsarukyan

Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

Fernando Quiles Jr: While Brundage has some experience under his belt, this is another matchup to keep easing Nickal into the Octagon before the competition heats up. I actually like the slow approach the UFC has taken with Nickal, which definitely can't be said for some of the promotion's other prospects. Nickal wins however he wants in my opinion. (Pick: Nickal)

Mathew Riddle: I think Nickal should be fighting higher competition but in all fairness his UFC resume is lacking and Brundage is dangerous in some areas. I'm not sure it'll matter unless Brundage pulls off a shock guillotine though. (Pick: Nickal)

Drew Beaupré: There are multiple bouts on the prelims that deserve a spot on the PPV over this fight, but at this point it’s clear how heavily invested the UFC is in Nickal. Brundage is a reasonable step up in competition based on Nickal’s current trajectory, and it’ll be interesting to see who he gets matched up with next if he’s able to handle the UFC veteran as easily as he did his previous opponents. (Pick: Nickal)

Zain Bando: Controversial or not, Bo Nickal is opening the main card of the biggest UFC event in nearly a decade. If that doesn’t show you where the promotion is at in terms of its idea in building stars, nothing will. Nickal should have no problem securing a win. (Pick: Nickal)

Christopher De Santiago: Despite being a huge underdog, Cody Brundage stands as Bo Nickal’s toughest opponent to date. But, don’t get it twisted, I don’t see this fight being difficult for Nickal. I think the accomplished wrestler will be able to finish Brundage within the distance. Brundage has only been submitted by Rodolfo Vieira in his pro career and I expect Nickal to be the second. Nickal by submission. (Pick: Nickal)

Consensus: 5-0, Bo Nickal

MMA Knockout Staff 2024 Records

Fernando Quiles Jr: 10-5
Mathew Riddle: 4-6
Drew Beaupré: 9-6
Zain Bando: 6-9
Christopher De Santiago: 4-1

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