Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Analyzing strength of schedules

Looking at strength of schedule could help give fantasy football owners a leg up, but there's a few caveats. Just because a team has the best schedule for fantasy running backs (meaning they face the worst rush defenses from a year ago) doesn’t necessarily mean their running backs will see immediate success. But if you are looking at two players, this might be a good way to break the tie.

2014 Fantasy Football Top 300

So many things change between Week 1 and Week 17 that it’s impossible to plan your fantasy football draft with strength of schedule for the entire season in mind. This is also why you shouldn’t worry about bye weeks too much. Your roster is most likely going to change before the bye week arrives where you have two players sitting.

Here, we share the units with the best and worst strength of schedules with you, but we’ll also share some interesting notes about different portions of the schedule you might find helpful. Luckily, the team at FFToolbox.com has already split up the strength of schedule into several different sections, from Week 1 to 5, Weeks 6-10 and Weeks 11-15.

Considering most leagues have their championship game in week 16 rather than week 17, when many stars are rested for the upcoming NFL playoffs, we’ll only review the strength of schedules between weeks 1-16.

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Quarterbacks

Best schedules

St. Louis Rams: It’s an unbelievable shame Sam Bradford (knee) is out for the season yet again, considering his team is going up against some weak pass defenses. The first five weeks of the season include games against the Vikings (31st vs. the pass), Cowboys (30th) and Eagles (32nd). Shaun Hill, however, is not quite as threatening.

Miami Dolphins: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill enters his third season in the NFL with a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor, the same guy who coached Nick Foles last season in Philadelphia.

Worst schedules

Baltimore Ravens: After winning the Super Bowl and signing a huge contract in the offseason, Joe Flacco had the worst season of his career in 2013. He’ll have a healthy Dennis Pitta and new starting wide receiver Steve Smith this season, but it should be a tough road for the quarterback -- and his fantasy owners.

Cleveland Browns: It makes sense that two AFC North teams rank this low, since they go up against tough defenses in their division (all four were among the top 12 in the NFL against the pass last year). Cleveland has the second-worst fantasy strength of schedule, which means the cards are very much stacked against Brian Hoyer keeping the starting job until midseason.

Running backs

Best schedules

New York Jets: For those who gambled on Chris Johnson in the Big Apple, like the Jets did, it could pay off. Their three divisional opponents’ rush defenses ( Bills, Dolphins and Patriots) all allowed over 124.0 rushing yards per game -- ranked in the bottom 10 last year.

Indianapolis Colts: Another running back with some questions surrounding him, Trent Richardson also faces a favorable divisional schedule for running backs. The Texans, one of the Colts’ rivals, has the best strength of schedule for running backs in the first five weeks of the season.

Worst Schedules

Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson has a bad hamstring, a birth certificate from 1983, an exciting rookie behind him in Devonta Freeman -- and now the hardest schedule for a running back in the league.

Denver Broncos: Speaking of rookies, all of those people who wanted Montee Ball (appendectomy) as their RB1 despite not much of a track record will have to deal with a very tough schedule for running backs. The Broncos play the 49ers, Cardinals, Jets and Bengals, which all ranked among the stingiest against the run last year.

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Wide receivers

Best schedules

Miami Dolphins: We already mentioned Tannehill and his favorable schedule, so it only makes sense his wide receivers, including Mike Wallace in his second year with the team, have good things ahead, too. Strangely, the Dolphins’ tight ends have the 22nd-ranked schedule for tight ends.

New England Patriots: Another AFC East team, the Pats and Dolphins both face four of the six worst pass defenses from a year ago. The Dolphins, however, have 10 games against nine of the bottom 11 pass defenses, facing the Jets twice.

Worst Schedules

Baltimore Ravens: What’s bad for Flacco is also bad for his wide receivers, including Torrey Smith, who many expect to have a pretty big season. This schedule won’t help, as their three divisional opponents all ranked in the top nine against the pass last year.

Philadelphia Eagles: Interestingly, Jeremy Maclin and Co. will face the Cowboys’ deplorable pass defense in Weeks 13 and 15, with a really tough game against the Seahawks in Week 14. Hopefully, you’ll have earned a first-round bye to avoid the Super Bowl champs.

Tight ends

Best schedules

Detroit Lions: Rookie tight ends rarely produce good year-round stats, but Eric Ebron should have the easiest path among all rookies and veterans alike. (Just know that Tim Wright ranked 13th among all fantasy tight ends last year in his rookie season with Tampa Bay. Even so, he was the best rookie tight end in fantasy since Rob Gronkowski in 2010. It’s tough to argue for using a rookie tight end outside of as a part-time fantasy starter.)

St. Louis Rams: Jared Cook was really looking like a nice fantasy sleeper before Bradford’s injury, but you have to think he’s going to see fewer scoring opportunities in his second year back with Jeff Fisher.

Worst schedules

Arizona Cardinals: In case you were considering drafting John Carlson.

Denver Broncos: Not a good sign for Julius Thomas’ owners, but let’s be real -- the Broncos offense will be too much for most teams to handle anyway. Thomas should even get more red-zone targets with Eric Decker now wearing a Jets jersey.

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Defenses

Best schedules

Indianapolis Colts: Things are lining up for Andrew Luck to have a huge year, but he’ll need the Colts defense to get the ball back and make some stops, so he can have more scoring opportunities. The Colts also won the lottery by facing the Cowboys, the worst defense in the NFL, in Week 16 -- the fantasy Super Bowl week. But the Colts defense will be facing a very tough offense.

Tennessee Titans:Even with a strong schedule, this unit is just subpar.

Worst schedules

Denver Broncos:This one hurts, as the Broncos defense has to be one of the most improved units since the Super Bowl loss. However, if Peyton Manning and his offense are killing it, then the Broncos opponent will be forced to go to the air early, which opens up opportunities for interceptions and pick-sixes.

Oakland Raiders: Finally, you have a reason to avoid the Raiders defense -- which is probably ranked in the bottom five across the fantasy universe already. This team faces the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs twice each season.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers Vol. 2

Jeremy Hill - RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Hill is the new power back to compliment Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati. The second-round rookie should play a role similar to BenJarvus Green-Ellis last season but with significantly more upside.

LeGarrette Blount - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Blount averaged five yards per carry last season in New England and his style translates perfectly to Pittsburgh’s smash-mouth style. He’s one Le’Veon Bell injury away from being a fantasy asset.

Storm Johnson - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Toby Gerhart is a true three-down back but he had better perform in his first season as a starter, because Johnson will be waiting for his chance. The talented rookie from UCF has the tools to emerge as a capable fantasy option.

Latavius Murray - RB, Oakland Raiders

Murray is only draftable in extremely deep leagues, but he’s a talented runner who is backing up two injury-prone veterans on the depth chart. Keep an eye on him if Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden goes down with an injury.

Darren Sproles - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Sproles has caught at least 70 balls in each of the last three seasons and moved to Chip Kelly’s pass-happy offense in Philadelphia. He’s a big-play threat who should outperform his average draft position, especially in PPR formats.

Mark Ingram - RB, New Orleans Saints

Will this be the year that the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner breaks out? It could be, with Darren Sproles out of town and Pierre Thomas falling down the depth chart. Ingram is still only 24 years old and has the tools to be a fantasy star.

Jonathan Grimes - RB, Houston Texans

Grimes is emerging as the primary backup to Arian Foster with a nice training camp. Fantasy owners know all about Foster’s injury history and his backups tend to make an impact at some point during the season.

James Starks - RB, Green Bay Packers

Starks averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season and is a must-own handcuff for all Eddie Lacy owners. Starks instantly becomes a high-end RB2 in all leagues if Lacy goes down at any point.

Andre Williams - RB, New York Giants

The rookie out of Boston College will take a backseat to Rashad Jennings early in the season but is talented enough to eventually steal the job. Either way, Williams is expected to be the goal-line back and fantasy owners should keep an eye on him.

Emmanuel Sanders - WR, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning has a new toy and that's great news for fantasy owners. Sanders has the skillset to make a significant impact as the Broncos’ third receiver.

Cole Beasley - WR, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys should have a dominant passing game and Beasley should be a capable slot receiver. He could emerge as one of Tony Romo’s favorite targets.

Odell Beckham - WR, New York Giants

The rookie from LSU is expected to stretch the field for Eli Manning and could be a nice fantasy asset immediately. His average draft position should creep up as he proves healthy in camp.

Golden Tate - WR, Detroit Lions

Tate moves to an up-tempo offense in Detroit and gets to play opposite Calvin Johnson, which is very good news for his fantasy appeal. He should be a nice WR3 facing single coverage on a weekly basis.

Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The No. 7 overall pick has lofty expectations and is in a great situation to succeed. The 6’5 Evans will find plenty of single coverage playing opposite Vincent Jackson and could be the league’s top rookie for fantasy purposes.

Charles Johnson - WR, Cleveland Browns

The Grand Valley State product has been a training camp standout and could emerge as a starter in Cleveland. The Browns will be desperate for a play-making WR once Josh Gordon starts serving his suspension.

Kyle Rudolph - TE, Minnesota Vikings

Rudolph isn’t necessarily a “sleeper,” but he could easily outperform his ADP. Norv Turner turns tight ends into fantasy stars and Rudolph is primed for a career-best season.

Jordan Reed - TE, Washington Redskins

Reed showed glimpses of his potential last season, when he caught 45 balls in only nine games. The sky is the limit if Reed can stay healthy in 2014. He’s simply too talented to be overlooked.

Eli Manning - QB, New York Giants

The younger Manning gets a fresh start with new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and he should improve upon his miserable 18/27 TD/INT ratio from 2013. You can draft him as a backup for fantasy purposes but he has the ability to sneak into the Top 12 QBs when the season concludes.

Andy Dalton - QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton was quietly a fantasy monster last season, finishing with 4,293 passing yards and 33 TDs. Doubters will say Dalton is streaky, just signed a huge deal and has a new offensive coordinator, but, regardless, he is an absolute steal at his current ADP.

Josh McCown - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McCown was an elite fantasy QB during a three-game stretch last season and parlayed the success into a starting gig in Tampa Bay. His new weapons (Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans) resemble his old weapons (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery) in both size and ability. McCown is a sneaky option if you need a QB late in your draft.