Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Kicker position primer

Author:
Michael Beller
Publish date:
Aug 6, 2014

You're not going to select a kicker in the first round. Quite frankly, nobody is. But grabbing the right kicker can make a difference for your team. Last year, four kickers -- Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater, Adam Vinatieri and Nick Novak -- averaged at least nine fantasy points per game. Other players who averaged between nine and 10 points per game included Danny Woodhead, Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne. Julian Edelman did not reach that level. Neither did Andre Ellington or Torrey Smith. So yes, kickers can make a difference.

FANTASY FOOTBALL POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECTIONS:

Having said that, it is still a position of relatively little importance in fantasy leagues. The difference between Gostkowski and the No. 12 kicker, Jay Feely, was two points per game. There is very little difference from top to bottom, and the position is so volatile that there is very little predictive power in previous results. The best time to take your kicker is with one of your final two picks. Don’t spend more than a dollar on the position in an auction. In fact, one great auction move is to nominate your favorite kicker for a buck with your first selection. If you get him, that’s great. If you don’t, you just made someone spend at least $2 for a kicker.

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

In general, you want a kicker tied to a good offense. Those are the guys who are going to be in a position to score with regularity. Greg Zuerlein has a booming leg, but do you trust the Rams to put him in scoring range enough to make him a strong play in fantasy leagues? They certainly didn’t do that last year, as he was 22nd among kickers in fantasy points per game. Seven of the top 12 fantasy kickers from last year were on teams that were in the top 12 in the NFL in scoring. Focus on the offenses that are projected to be among the best in the league, and chances are you will find a good kicker.

Oh, and don’t allow your league to use yardage bonuses. First, nothing should be worth more points in fantasy than it is in real life. Second, kickers across the league are better than ever. They went 96-for-142 on attempts from beyond 50 yards, a success rate of 67.6 percent. They made 83 percent of kicks from between 40 and 49 yards. Just make all field goals worth three points and move on.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Knile Davis - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis is about as important a handcuff as you’ll find in the league. Davis would impact fantasy standings if Jamaal Charles goes down at any point. Davis picked up 81 yards and two TDs on 27 carries when Charles was resting Week 17 last season.

Terrance West - RB, Cleveland Browns

The rookie will need to beat out veteran Ben Tate for touches, but his upside is enormous. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery recently told reporters, ''He has that Ricky Watters, Walter Payton, lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.''

Dri Archer - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s possible that the undersized third-round pick is restricted to kick return duty in his rookie year. It’s also possible that Archer emerges as a dynamic RB/WR who could score anytime he touches the ball.

Lache Seastrunk - RB, Washington Redskins

The Baylor product is behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the depth chart and has developed a reputation for having awful hands. He actually dropped 10 balls and only caught nine during his two years in college. That said, Seastrunk’s running ability would make him a fantasy asset if Morris goes down with an injury.

Ka’Deem Carey - RB, Chicago Bears

Carey is an all-around running back who is capable of stepping in and producing for fantasy owners if Matt Forte gets hurt. He’s the type of rookie who would be a hot commodity if he were drafted by a team without an elite running back.

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

There is a legitimate chance that Freeman will eventually start over Steven Jackson; the rookie's average draft position will skyrocket with a dominant preseason. The former FSU back should see the field a lot if he can handle pass protection.

Christine Michael - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Michael is an instant stud if Marshawn Lynch goes down. Either way, the Seahawks have hinted at a committee approach and Lynch’s brief holdout may not have helped matters for the veteran running back. Michael has the skill set to provide RB1 numbers if he receives enough carries.

Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Anyone who saw Carlos Hyde at Ohio State knew he wouldn’t get buried in San Francisco, even with a crowded backfield. He’s arguably the most talented rookie RB and is one Frank Gore injury away from fantasy stardom.

Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis Rams

Many fantasy owners are high on Zac Stacy entering the season. But ask anyone who drafted Daryl Richardson in 2013 if Jeff Fisher is afraid to make a change at running back. The dynamic rookie Tre Mason is too talented to ride the pine forever and he’d turn into a nice fantasy option if given carries.

Chris Polk - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Even with Darren Sproles in town, Polk would hold a ton of fantasy value if LeSean McCoy were to miss time at any point. Chip Kelly’s offense turns RBs into fantasy stars and Polk is the clear-cut backup to McCoy.

Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rookie from West Virginia is expected to be an immediate handcuff to Doug Martin for fantasy purposes. Smith should contribute in passing situations early, but could steal carries from Martin as the season progresses.

Markus Wheaton - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Wheaton is expected to inherit a starting gig with Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders gone. The sophomore from Oregon State has big-play ability and could easily emerge as a must-start fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee is a candidate to lead the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie, but his competition isn’t exactly elite. He should be able to rack up catches and yards with Jacksonville expected to be playing from behind more often than not.

Kenny Stills - WR, New Orleans Saints

Stills has a ton of breakout potential coming off a rookie season in which he posted 641 yards on 32 catches with five TDs. He’s a big-play threat on ever possession and should easily surpass the 46 targets he received last season. He might only need 50 catches to score double-digit TDs.

Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina Panthers

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound, No. 28 overall pick is a perfect red-zone target and he could help the Panthers win games immediately. For fantasy purposes, he’s merely a WR3 or a WR4 until he proves he can be more than just a TD-dependent gamble on a weekly basis.

Tavon Austin - WR, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie in 2013, Austin only caught 40 passes for 418 yards and never really found a true role. He’s admitted that the adjustment from college to the NFL took a toll on him and he continuously dropped passes early in the season. If things click in his second year, Austin has the skillset to be a star.

Justin Hunter - WR, Tennessee Titans

The second-year receiver showed signs of his high ceiling last season with a few big games down the stretch. Hunter has the tools to develop into a WR1 in his prime and should play a prominent role on young Titans’ offense.

Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s departure opens the door for Matthews to step up. The 2014 season could turn into a perfect storm for Matthews to succeed with Jeremy Maclin coming off a torn ACL and Riley Cooper coming off a career season.

Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions

The Lions turned heads when they selected Ebron No. 10 overall in May’s Draft. It might take a season or two for the UNC product to reach his potential, but Ebron is an elite fantasy TE in the making. He’s been compared to Jimmy Graham and has the skillset to live up to his lofty expectations.

Ladarius Green - TE, San Diego Chargers

The 6-6, 237-pound Green is an obvious red-zone target and has the tools to be an impact fantasy option if he receives ample targets. Antonio Gates, the incumbent TE in San Diego, is 34 and slowed significantly down the stretch in 2013. Green caught 17 passes for 376 yards and three TDs last season, highlighted by a three-game stretch in which he caught nine balls for 206 yards and two scores.

Elite

Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots -- As stated earlier, the very top of the kicker position usually experiences a great deal of turnover from year to year. Of the top 10 kickers in 2013, just four were also in the top 10 in 2012. Half of 2011’s top 10 was outside that group the following season. With that sort of turmoil, it’s nice to find some consistency, and you can best find it in New England. Gostkowski hasn’t just been in the top 10 each of the last three years. In 2011, he had the third-most points among kickers. In 2012, he was on top. Last year, he repeated as fantasy’s best kicker. In troubled waters, Gostkowski remains one of the safest ships you can find.

Reach

Jay Feely, Arizona Cardinals -- Feely scored the 12th-most fantasy points among kickers last year, connecting on 30 field goals and making all 37 of his extra point attempts for a total of 127 points overall. However, he made just 83.3 percent of his field goal attempts, which ranked just 22nd in the league. He was more of a volume kicker, with his 36 field goal attempts standing as the sixth-most in the league. Feely was one of three kickers who missed three field goals from less than 40 yards last year. He has only been north of a 90-percent success rate once in his career, and that was back in 2007.

Steal

Connor Barth, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Barth had a very good year in 2012, scoring the 11th-most points among kickers after connecting on 28 of his 33 field goal attempts. He went 6-for-9 from at least 50 yards, and had a long of 57. Those three misses from beyond 50 also help explain away his average 84.8 percent success rate. He looked to be one of fantasy’s sure-fire starters in 2013, but he tore his Achilles tendon during a charity basketball game just before the start of training camp. You likely won’t find him high in many rankings because of last year’s injury, but he is a good bet to once again be in the top 12 this year.

Injury Risk

Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts -- Kickers don’t carry a ton of injury risk given that they aren’t typically in harm’s way, and that is true of Vinatieri. Still, it’s worth noting that the old warhorse is 41 years old now, and he does have three knee surgeries in his past. Neither of those facts should bump him down draft boards, though. Even at 40 years old last season, he went 35-for-40 on field goal attempts, and made 4-of-6 from beyond 50 yards.

Rookie

Nate Freese, Detroit Lions -- The kicking game was an issue last year for Detroit, with the veteran David Akers having one of the worst years of his career. The team jettisoned him in the offseason, and drafted Nate Freese out of Boston College in the seventh round. He’s competing for the job with Giorgio Tavecchio, who has been waived at the end of training camp each of the last two seasons. Freese, who went 20-for-20 on field goals as a senior including two of longer than 50 yards, is the favorite to win the job. If he does, he’ll be tied to what should be a very potent offense.

Tier Explanations

All stats below represent projections for the 2014 season.

First Tier -- One way or another, all five kickers in the top tier have proven themselves to be a cut above everyone else. Stephen Gostkowski and Dan Bailey get extra points here for consistency.


FGs	50+	XPs	bye	Value
29	6	60	4	$2


FGs	50+	XPs	bye	Value
31	4	48	10	$2


FGs	50+	XPs	bye	Value
31	4	48	4	$2


FGs	50+	XPs	bye	Value
33	6	34	11	$2


FGs	50+	XPs	bye	Value
28	5	45	11	$2

Second Tier -- There really isn’t much difference between Phil Dawson, the top guy in this tier, and Robbie Gould, the last one. They’re all worthy of being drafted as starters.

Third Tier -- There is some upside with this group, especially with Connor Barth, Greg Zuerlein and Adam Vinatieri. Still, you’ll need to be in a deeper league to think about these guys in your draft.


	Player	team	bye	AUCTION	FGs	50-yd+	XPs	tier
1	Matt Prater	DEN	4	$2	29	6	60	1
2	Stephen Gostkowski	NE	10	$2	31	4	48	1
3	Steven Hauschka	SEA	4	$2	31	5	43	1
4	Justin Tucker	BAL	11	$2	33	6	34	1
5	Dan Bailey	DAL	11	$2	28	5	45	1
6	Phil Dawson	SF	8	$1	28	3	43	2
7	Blair Walsh	MIN	10	$1	30	4	35	2
8	Matt Bryant	ATL	9	$1	28	4	40	2
9	Alex Henery	PHI	7	$1	26	3	47	2
10	Nick Novak	SD	10	$1	27	3	27	2
11	Mason Crosby	GB	9	$1	25	3	50	2
12	Shayne Graham	NO	6	$1	25	3	49	2
13	Robbie Gould	CHI	9	$1	26	2	47	2
14	Ryan Succop	KC	6	$1	26	3	40	3
15	Adam Vinatieri	IND	10	$1	28	3	34	3
16	Graham Gano	CAR	12	$1	25	4	34	3
17	Connor Barth	TB	7	$1	24	5	35	3
18	Greg Zuerlein	STL	4	$1	24	4	30	3
19	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	5	$1	26	3	31	3
20	Kai Forbath	WAS	10	$1	21	2	39	3

Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Kicker position primer

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST