Dodgers at Giants Series Preview
The Dodgers have reached the midpoint of the abbreviated 2020 season with the best record in baseball (22-8, .733), the best run differential in the majors by a mile (+79, nearly twice the second-place Twins’ +41), and the biggest division lead in baseball (a full four games over the Padres). They are the top run-scoring team in baseball (5.7 runs per game) and the second-stingiest in run prevention (3.1 runs allowed per game, behind only Cleveland’s 3.0). They have won 11 of their last 12, and none of the teams they will face over the next two and a half weeks have a winning record entering Tuesday’s games. The Dodgers are firmly in the soft middle of their schedule and are doing exactly what they should be: fattening up on their weaker opponents.
That should continue this week with their final series of the season against their fallen rivals, the Giants. However, the Giants haven’t been the complete pushovers they were expected to be coming into the season. In seven games at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers outscored the Giants by a whopping 39-19, but the Giants hung with L.A., winning three of seven. Entering this week’s three-game set (the L.A.’s only visit to San Francisco this season), the Giants have an active six-game winning streak and can boast a winning record and +10 run differential at home.
Perhaps most impressive, even if they did come against the last-place Angels and Diamondbacks, is that all six of the wins in San Francisco’s current streak have come by margins of at least four runs. The Giants’ offense has been the surprise in the first half of the season, averaging just shy of five runs per game, good enough to be in the top third of major-league teams. However, over those last six games, the otherwise lousy San Francisco pitching staff has been outstanding, allowing two runs or fewer in five of those six games and averaging just 2.2 runs allowed per game during the streak.
That won’t continue against the potent Dodgers’ lineup, but the Dodgers do have the mild misfortune of catching the top three men in the Giants’ rotation this week. Here are the projected pitching matchups:
Tues. 8/25, 6:45 p.m. PT: LHP Julio Urías (2.74 ERA, 23 IP) vs. RHP Johnny Cueto (4.35 ERA, 31 IP)
Wed. 8/26, 6:45 p.m. PT: LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.25 ERA, 24 IP) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (4.65 ERA, 31 IP)
Thur. 8/27, 5:05 p.m. PT: RHP Walker Buehler (4.32 ERA, 25 IP) vs. RHP Logan Webb (3.29 ERA, 27 1/3 IP)
Wily veteran Cueto has been pretty average across the board thus far this season, though still tremendously entertaining to watch given his wide variety of deliveries. In two starts against the Dodgers, he has allowed five runs in 9 2/3 innings, walking four, striking out six, and allowing a home run to Justin Turner, who is a career .343 hitter in 39 plate appearances against Cueto. Kiké Hernández is 3-for-4 with a triple against Cueto thus far this season.
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Kevin Gausman’s lone quality start this season came against the Dodgers on August 9. He held L.A. to one run over 6 1/3 innings, striking out six against no walks in that game, only to watch the Dodgers come back against the San Francisco bullpen. On the season, Gausman has an outstanding 42 strikeouts against just six walks in 31 innings, but hasn’t had the results to match those peripherals. He allowed three runs in four innings in his first outing against the Dodgers and seven runs in 11 innings in two starts since that quality start against L.A. The active Dodgers have hit .320/.384/.530 against Gausman in his career, and Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Corey Seager are a combined 6-for-7 with two doubles, a homer, and a walk against him this season.
Twenty-three-year-old rookie Logan Webb has been the Giants’ best starter to this point in the season and is coming off his best start of the season, seven innings of two-run ball against the Diamondbacks in which he struck out eight without walking a batter. The Dodgers missed him in their last series against the Giants, but in the third game of the season, he held them to one run over four frames in a Giants win. Webb throws in the low- to mid-90s with a sinker, slider, curve and changeup, the last of which is his primary weapon. His control can abandon him on occasion, but he has allowed just one home run all season and held opponents to a .373 slugging percentage. Playing in the Giants’ power-suppressing home ballpark, the Dodgers will have to string some hits together to get to Webb on Thursday.
Or they could just knock him out early and go to work on that lousy San Francisco bullpen. Opposing batters have an OPS+ of 129 against the Giants’ bullpen, which is the worst mark in the majors this side of the Phillies (who are completely off the map at 173). The one thing the Giants’ relief corps has going for it against the Dodgers is an abundance of lefties, including Tony Watson, Sam Selman and Jarlin García, who have been three of the Giants’ most effective relievers thus far. On the season, the Dodgers have a mere 75 OPS+ against left-handed pitching.
The Giants have made a few roster changes since the Dodgers last saw them. Most notably, they have called up catching prospect Joey Bart, demoting Tyler Heineman. Bart has appeared in just four games thus far, but he has hit (4-for-12 with three doubles and a walk), and the Giants have won all four games. The Giants have also lost righty-hitting centerfielder Austin Slater to a groin strain, replacing him with lefty-hitting Steven Duggar, and released 37-year-old Hunter Pence, who was a mere 5-for-52 on the season.
San Francisco’s projected lineup against left-handers now looks something like this:
L – Mike Yastrzemski (RF)
R – Donovan Solano (2B)
R – Evan Longoria (3B)
R – Wilmer Flores (DH)
L – Brandon Belt (1B)
R – Darin Ruf (LF)
R – Joey Bart (C)
L – Brandon Crawford (SS)
R – Mauricio Dubón (CF)
Yastrzemski and Solano are still raking, as are Belt and Flores. Solano’s average is down to .363, but he is still second on the team in OPS+ behind Yastrzemski’s remarkable 192, the third-best mark in the majors, derived from a .309/.429/.645 line. Flores, meanwhile, is tied with Yastrzemski for the team lead in home runs with seven.
Against the right-handed Buehler on Thursday, the Giants will likely put Alex Dickerson in left field batting second, leap-frog Belt over Longoria to bat cleanup, put Pablo Sandoval at designated hitter, and put Duggar in center. Buehler, meanwhile, will be looking to build off a season-best performance against the Rockies that suggested that he has finally shaken off that early-season rust.
Cliff Corcoran covers baseball for The Athletic and is a former lead baseball writer for SI.com. The co-author or editor of 13 baseball books, including seven Baseball Prospectus annuals, he has also written for USA Today, SB Nation, Baseball Prospectus, Sports on Earth, The Hardball Times, and Boston.com, among others. He has been a semi-regular guest analyst on the MLB Network and can be heard more regularly on The Infinite Inning podcast with Steven Goldman. Follow Cliff on Twitter @CliffCorcoran.
