Dodgers Forecast: Who Are the Most Likely NLDS Opponents for L.A.?
The Dodgers know when they'll play their first postseason game: October 11.
They know where they'll play that game: Dodger Stadium.
What they don't yet know, and won't know for almost two weeks, is who their opponents will be in that series. There are currently five other teams in NL playoff spots, and the Cardinals are the only one we know the Dodgers won't play in the NLDS. There's also a team outside the currently playoff picture who still has a chance.
Let's take a look at the five possible NLDS opponents for Los Angeles, starting with the least likely.
Brewers
If the playoffs started today, the Brewers would be watching on TV. That alone is enough to make them the least likely of the five possible NLDS opponents for the Dodgers. Throw in the fact that they'd have to jump up to the second Wild Card spot, which they're currently three games out of, and then beat either the Mets or Braves in a best-of-three series on the road, and it seems extraordinarily unlikely that Milwaukee will be making the trip to L.A. in two weeks.
Phillies
For the Phillies to play Los Angeles in the NLDS, they'd have to overcome a 1.5-game deficit to pass the Padres for the second WC spot, and then they'd have to beat Atlanta or New York in the WC round. Stranger things have happened, but the Phillies seem destined for the other side of the bracket and a first-round matchup with the Cardinals.
Padres
The Padres are currently in the second WC spot, setting them up to take on whichever of Atlanta and New York doesn't win the NL East. The winner of that series would take on the Dodgers in the NLDS. The reason we don't have San Diego as more likely is simply because they're not as good as the Mets or Braves, so they'll be playing a better team on the road and trying to advance.
Mets
The Mets or Braves are the most likely NLDS opponents for the Dodgers, but the tricky part is it would be whichever team doesn't win the NL East. The winner of the East will get a bye and await the winner of the Cardinals/somebody series, while the second-place team will take on a good team (currently the Padres) in the WC round. The Mets and Braves play each other three times this weekend, and the Mets' division lead is just one game, so the division is definitely up for grabs.
Braves
If the postseason started today, it would be the Braves and Padres in the best-of-three Wild Card series in Atlanta. The winner of that series would head to L.A. to take on the Dodgers in the NLDS. Add it all up, and the Braves are the most likely NLDS opponent for Los Angeles in the NLDS.
A Braves/Dodgers matchup would be their fourth in the last five years, with L.A. beating Atlanta in the 2018 NLDS and 2020 NLCS before the Braves won the 2021 NLCS. It would also be the two teams' first postseason matchup since former Dodger Kenley Jansen and former Brave Freddie Freeman swapped teams this last offseason.
For now, it's enough to know the Dodgers will play on October 11 at Dodger Stadium, and that they'll have home-field advantage at least throughout the NLCS. We'll find out their NLDS opponent shortly before that series starts.
