Dodgers Prospect Watch: Gerardo Carrillo
Name: Gerardo Carrillo.
Vitals: Starting pitcher. 5' 10", 154, age 21, bats right, throws right. From Guadalajara, Mexico.
Draft: Signed by the Dodgers in 2016 out of the Mexican League for $75,000.
Highest level of play: 2019 Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.
Potential date for major league debut: 2022/2023.
Baseball America scouting report (subscription required): “[Carrillo] rapidly filled out to become one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the Dodgers organization, but he struggled with his control...added 25 pounds since signing and saw his two-seam fastball jump from 90-94 mph to 94-98 mph last year...He walked 51 batters and hit 17 more in 86 innings in 2019 and has well below-average control, especially to his armside….Carrillo shows some feel for pitching, and the Dodgers think he will grow into an average strike-thrower in time even with his current wildness.”
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Comment: Gerardo Carillo is the Dodgers’ 27th best overall prospect and 10th best pitching prospect, according to Baseball America. Having watched footage of Carrillo, I can tell you that this guy has a potentially devastating cutter. However, he needs to harness and control his other pitches, like his 98 mph two-seam fastball, to set up that swing-and-miss pitch. He also has a changeup and curveball in his repertoire.
There’s no doubt Carrillo has raw talent and the Dodgers believe their farm system can help him develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. With the likes of Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin ahead of Carrillo in the prospect rankings and the Dodgers’ historic knack for developing pitchers, I trust they know what they’re doing.
In 2019, Carrillo pitched for the High-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. In 23 games (21 starts), he went 5-9 with a 5.44 ERA, 86 strikeouts and 51 walks, with 1.605 WHIP over 86 innings. His control is a constant point of emphasis, with a K/BB ratio of 1.7, in addition to 17 hit batters. He finished the season strong, however, with his longest, and arguably his best outing of the year. He tossed seven solid innings, allowing two earned runs, with a walk and a season-high 11 strikeouts in a win August 24 at the Inland Empire 66ers.
In fact, over his final three starts of the 2019 season, Carrillo finished 3-0, struck out 25, walked four, while allowing up three earned runs (1.62 ERA) over 16 ⅔ innings.
So what does this tell us? Carrillo has the potential to dominate, but he has to gain consistency by controlling his pitches. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that nearly averaging a hit batsman per start isn’t going to cut it, but given his flashes of success last season, I believe the framework is there for him to become an effective major league starter. I just think it’ll take a couple more minor league seasons to prove it.
Jake Reiner is a native-Angeleno and is currently a sports and news reporter for KCBS/KCAL, Channels 2&9, where he has covered the Dodgers, Lakers, Chargers, and most recently traveled with the Rams for the entire season as the beat reporter for KCBS. Follow him on Twitter.
Photo: Gerardo Carrillo, by Gail Verderico.
