Going Out on a Limb About Dodgers’ Postseason Prospects
If you’ve been reading me for more than, oh, about five minutes, you know that I never go out on a limb by attempting to predict October baseball. You're aware that I'll readily admit that I just don't know, preferring instead to say that “there is no predicting in October baseball.” You're familiar with my saying that “there’s no jinxing in baseball,” which I know it to be the case.
(A billy goat curse is an different animal, by the way. But it's a curse, not a jinx.)
So you can trust in my sincere belief when I tell you that the Dodgers are going to beat the Braves in the National League Championship Series with a modicum of difficulty beginning Monday in Texas and follow up with a victory over the American League champion thereafter, bringing a World Series championship home to Los Angeles. At long last.
I don’t know if it’s in the cards, in the stars or wherever the appropriate cliché may be, but it’s happening, Los Angeles. This is happening.
An extra round of playoffs in 2020? No problem. L.A. swept. A very good and highly motivated NLDS opponent in the San Diego Padres, with an unwelcome meltdown by Kenley Jansen included? Not a problem. The Dodgers brushed aside those challenges and swept.
Atlanta is a step up in competition and I don’t expect a sweep. The same is true for both the Rays and Yankees, whichever team should be victorious in the one division series yet to be completed (Yankees' Gerrit Cole versus Rays' Tyler Glasnow in Game 5 Friday at 4:10 p.m. PT on TBS). It's unreasonable to expect a sweep.
If the Astros were to somehow come out of the AL as the last team standing, however, I can see a Los Angeles sweep. I can also see an ALCS sweep of Houston, no matter the opponent, and that's what I'm rooting for, same as you. The disgusting 29-31 representatives of Houston really shouldn't be anywhere near the postseason, let alone the ALCS, which along with the NLCS are two of the most beautiful acronyms in the English language, the former of which the Astros sully.
A few thoughts about the Los Angeles vs. San Diego NLDS:
1. The Dodgers ripped baseballs. As a team L.A. hit .287/.409/.406. And in a new way for the 2020 squad, by singling the opponent to death, recording 29 singles, seven doubles, one triple (by Cody Bellinger) and one home run (also by Bellinger).
Bellinger, who had struggled in his postseason career previously, hit .333/.429/.500 in the NLDS. Mookie Betts, who had also struggled in October to a degree, hit .333/.400/.500. Joc Pederson, who thrives in the postseason generally but slumped throughout the 2020 regular season, finally broke through with two big hits in Game 3, plus a couple of key runs batted in.
Austin Barnes was a perfect 2-2 with a walk in his three plate appearances. AJ Pollock hit .300, with a .364 on base percentage. Max Muncy hit .273 with a .467 OBP, Corey Seager continued to rake with a .364/.467/.545 line and Will Smith recorded the first five-hit postseason performance in Dodgers' franchise history in the clincher, finishing with a .455/.571/.636 slash line.
2. The Dodgers pitched baseballs, holding an accomplished San Diego offense to nine runs, with a series ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.056. The staff recorded 45 strikeouts in 27 innings
3. And the Dodgers caught the baseball (see Bellinger).
4. Dave Roberts scares me, especially in October. He scares me to death. His Game 2 ninth inning with Kenley Jansen was malpractice personified. And the lifting of Dustin May after an inning last night was weird. Just plain weird. Roberts is weird. The skipper's players picked him up and won going away and all was right in Dodgersworld anyway, but there should be little comfort in that going forward. The guy simply has to stop trying so hard to look like the smartest guy in room — even if he is — and manage like a normal person instead.
5. Kenley Jansen should only pitch in a runaway game from here to October’s end. I don't feel as though I should have to elaborate. So I won't. Runaway games only.
6. I assume we'll see Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and Game 2 Monday and Tuesday respectively, and perhaps May again in Game 3, only minus the one-inning weirdness this time.
7. Jake McGee and mothballed Tony Gonsolin will get in some work in a sim game Saturday, and while that’s not as good as the real thing, it’s better than nothing. The Dodgers are going to need a full complement of arms to get to the Fall Classic. And to win it.
A final point about home field advantage:
No, it's not the same as home field advantage in a normal year. But the Dodgers did earn whatever advantage could be theirs by virtue of their baseball-best 43-17 regular season record, and every little bit helps. Between their in-season trip to Arlington in August and the NLDS, L.A. has had six games to adjust to the wide open spaces of Globe Life Field. And they won five of them, scoring 39 runs while holding their opponents to 21. So it's safe to say they've adjusted and will benefit because of the experience, thank you very much.
The Braves, Yanks and Rays have never set foot in the Rangers' new ballpark, so that's a home field advantage for Los Angeles. The Dodgers will bat last four times (if necessary) both in the NLCS and the World Series against whoever it might be. That's an advantage for Los Angeles. And while Houston did make a trip to Arlington during the regular season (losing three out of four), does anyone really expect the Stros to get past the winner of Yanks-Rays series? And more importantly, don't you think Los Angeles is the far superior club, with enough motivation to beat those guys senseless should the opportunity arise?
C'mon. L.A.'s got this. I'm out on a limb. L.A. has so got this.
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.
Video courtesy of Spectrum SportsNetLA/Los Angeles Dodgers.
