What Really Happened to the Dodgers Offense in the Postseason?
The 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers played all-time great offense in the regular season, and then poof they vanished. In this storied franchise, the 2023 chapter ranked 5th all-time in runs scored (906), 7th in OPS (.795), and 3rd in wRC+ (116). So, the question becomes: What in the world happened to this offense in the NLDS?
Strap in because this article has some numbers in it.
Runners in Scoring Position
Every fandom believes their team ranks worst in the league when batting with runners in scoring position (RISP). It feels like every night the club leaves a small village on the basepaths. This year the Dodgers cannot claim any of this. They ranked 4th in MLB with RISP slashing .276/.370/.820, and, on average, they put 11 runners in scoring position each night. They failed with runners in scoring position this postseason.
In 3 games against the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers went 4-17 with runners in scoring position. The team that averaged 11 runners on 2nd or 3rd a night produced only 17 such situations over three nights. So not only did they bat .235 with RISP, but did not give themselves many chances to get back to the line they set in the regular season.
Three True Outcomes
Strikeouts, walks, and home runs make up the three true outcomes in baseball. On the year, the Dodgers ranked 20th in strikeouts (1,359), 2nd in walks (644), and 2nd in the fun stat, home runs (249). On a per-game basis, this comes out to, respectively, 8.38, 3.97, and 1.53. The NLDS showed a stark contrast in two of these three numbers.
Working with only three games is admittedly a small sample size, but they are worth a look. The Dodgers worked 9 total walks over three games and J.D. Martinez accounted for the only home run. That comes out to nearly a full walk less per game than the regular season, and more than a home run less. Two of the three games ended in 4-2 losses, and a home run at any point in those two games makes a world of difference.
The Dodgers actually outperformed their regular season strikeout rate in the postseason (7.66). This mark puts them 3rd in MLB right in front of the Houston Astros. So fewer walks, strikeouts, and home runs in a small sample size muddies the water a little. An argument could be made that all of this cancels out, but arguably the biggest culprit for the offensive woes is next.
Pitches per Plate Appearance
Over the past decade, the hallmark of the Dodgers offense is the ability to see a lot of pitches and work a pitch count. This allows the team to stress the starting pitcher, get to the bullpen early, and hopefully put up crooked numbers. It also behooves the individual batter, because the more pitches they see, the more likely they are to get a hit. If you sense a trend, then you know where this is going.
In 2023 the Dodgers' batters saw 3.96 pitches per plate appearance (PPA). Only the Padres (3.98), Cubs (3.99), and Brewers (4.02) saw more pitches. On their way to getting swept, the offense saw, on average, 3.64 PPA. For context, this year the Washington Nationals took the fewest PPA with 3.76. Somehow, the 100-win club performed at a lower rate than a team that won 71 games, and the results bear that out.
It appears that the club abandoned their hitting philosophy which made them one of the best in team history. It explains why they walked less, had fewer opportunities with RISP, and could not knock out the Diamondback starters quickly enough. It also just shows a decrease in at-bat quality which explains the lack of home runs. Lastly, they did not strike out as much because their aggression at the plate had them rolling the ball over and flying out instead.
Summary
If you've made it this far, I commend you. This article hopefully provides some closure and explanation for what happened in the NLDS. Thankfully, with the early exit, the organization can take this time to figure out why this occurred and make the proper offseason moves to correct it for next season.
