What a SF Giants offseason could look like with no payroll restriction
The SF Giants may be expected to be big spenders this offseason, but it's Black Friday and the biggest-name free agents are still likely at least a couple of weeks away from signing. But with folks around the country splurging on Black Friday, I got an idea, why not look at what the Giants could look like if they ignored money this offseason?
So here we are. How good could the Giants get this offseason if they went into free agency throwing money around to whoever they targeted most?
For information's sake, I will include the contract predictions that MLB Trade Rumors made for each free agent and will show the Giants projected payroll with those signings. But again, that's not the point of this exercise. On this day for splurging, let's revel in what the Giants roster could look like next season if team ownership went full George Steinbrenner and signed several top free agents. Since our own JD Salazar has already analyzed several of these free agents in their free-agent breakdown series, those players have shorter writeups.
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Signing 1. Aaron Judge: eight-years, $332 million
Shocking I know. Let's face it, Aaron Judge is the defining free agent of this offseason, and the SF Giants are already considered one of his most likely landing spots. If we put budgetary considerations to the side, it's even easier to see Judge in Orange and Black next season.
For more on Judge, check out our Aaron Judge free-agent breakdown.
Signing 2. Carlos Correa: nine-years, $288 million
After adding Judge, there's an argument that the SF Giants should prioritize a more athletic infielder like Trea Turner, but Carlos Correa has outperformed his reputation defensively in recent years and has already shown he can be an elite player without standout athleticism. Granted, I might be underselling Turner's ability to remain an exceptional athlete into his mid-30s, but I have slightly more confidence in Correa's bat.
The Dodgers have been a seemingly unbeatable juggernaut in the NL West because of their star-studded lineup. Putting Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa together would give the Giants one of the most formidable offensive duos in the league, on par with every team except the Angels, who currently have Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout teamed up.
For more on Correa, check out our Carlos Correa free-agent breakdown.
Signing 3. Justin Verlander: three-years, $120 million
After giving Judge and Correa massive long-term contracts, the SF Giants will still want to add one starting pitcher to replace Carlos Rodón. Re-signing Rodón would make a lot of sense, but after handing out a pair of long-term deals, adding an elite arm like Verlander that will not require a commitment beyond 2025 would seem like an ideal fit.
For more on Verlander, check out our Justin Verlander free-agent breakdown.
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Signing 4. Willson Contreras: four-years, $84 million
Willson Contreras would be the ultimate luxury signing. Joey Bart was a perfectly fine starting catcher in 2022 and should have a chance to take another step forward in his second full season as the team's starter. However, Bart was inconsistent and remains a question mark heading into 2023. Even if it might not be a top priority, adding an elite catcher like Contreras could go a long way toward improving the team.
Contreras burst onto the scene in 2016, helping the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century. Ever since, Contreras has received three All-Star selections and has been one of the most consistent catchers in MLB. Contreras is a career .256/.349/.459 hitter coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 20 home runs.
Set to turn 31 in May, Contreras was always an offense-first catcher and admittedly is probably past his prime defensively. Still, he has been a league-average framer over the past three seasons and threw out 31% of opposing base stealers in 2022 (league average was 24%). Given his exceptional bat, that defense should be more than enough to justify an everyday spot in the Giants lineup.
Signing 5. José Abreu: two-years, $40 million
With the Giants retaining corner bat/designated hitter options like Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Joc Pederson, it seems unlikely that they will sign a first base/DH-only player like José Abreu this offseason. However, there's a strong case to be made that Abreu is as good a hitter as any other free agent and is the only elite bat that will not take a long-term commitment.
2022 showed the Giants that they need to be less reliant on platoons. Abreu has consistently been one of the best all-around hitters in MLB since he signed with the White Sox back in 2013. Over the past four seasons, Abreu is hitting .288/.355/.493 with an average of 24 home runs a year despite never playing in a platoon.
While Abreu will turn 36 in January, he has been one of the most durable players in MLB. Abreu's age is a cause for concern, but it's hard to argue with his track record. Some may point to Abreu's career-worst single-season home run output in 2022 (15) as a sign of deterioration, but a look at more advanced statistics shows no signs of decline. In fact, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, and xwOBA were all the second-highest of his career. Throw him into a lineup with Judge, Correa, Contreras, and Pederson and opposing pitchers will have nowhere to hide.
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Signing 6. Kenley Jansen: two-years, $26 million
The Giants bullpen righted the ship late in the season thanks to some late-season callups and the emergence of Camilo Doval as the franchise's best closer since Brian Wilson. However, manager Gabe Kapler could still use one veteran stalwart to stabilize the unit. Something they thought they had before Jake McGee imploded this season.
Enter Kenley Jansen. Jansen, 35, has been one of the best closers in the league since 2012 and amassed 350 saves over 705 innings pitched with a 2.37 ERA with the Dodgers over the first 12 years of his big-league career. After signing with Atlanta last offseason, Jansen was once again a great closer, recording 41 saves and a 3.38 ERA with 85 strikeouts and 22 walks in 65 innings this season.
Jansen is still good enough to be a quality closer on a contender, but that's exactly the kind of arm any team should want as their top setup man. Jansen would help avoid overusing Doval and would give the team excellent insurance in case he was injured and had to miss some time. Just as importantly, solid relievers like John Brebbia, Tyler Rogers, and Scott Alexander would receive fewer high-leverage opportunities and could be freed up for the most favorable matchups.
Projected 2023 SF Giants roster
Lineup:
1. Mike Yastrzemski, CF
2. Carlos Correa, 2B
3. LaMonte Wade Jr, LF
4. Aaron Judge, RF
5. Joc Pederson, DH
6. José Abreu, 1B
7. Willson Contreras, C
8. Brandon Crawford, SS
9. David Villar, 3B
Bench:
Joey Bart, J.D. Davis, Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater
In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the Giants would actually have a case that they have the best lineup in the division. Judge, Abreu, and Correa have been three of the best (and most consistent) hitters in the league over the past several seasons. Add in a hitting catcher like Contreras alongside the other quality bats already on the team, and the Giants offense would have exceptional hitters up and down the lineup. Obviously, every big free-agent signing comes with some risk, and it would be surprising if every addition worked out perfectly. But the beauty of adding multiple stars is you do not need all of them to work out to have a successful offseason.
With stars locked into the lineup at several spots, Kapler would have much more flexibility to take advantage of platoons. Thairo Estrada could spell Brandon Crawford and LaMonte Wade Jr. against southpaws. Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater could platoon in center field. That doesn't even mention Wilmer Flores, Joey Bart, and J.D. Davis who would be quite the trio of power hitters off the bench.
This lineup would also be in great shape defensively. Joc Pederson would never need to take the field while Judge, Yastrzemski, and Slater would give Kapler a trio of excellent defensive outfielders to deploy in center and right field. On the infield, Correa and Crawford would be an excellent defensive tandem up the middle with Estrada adding valuable defensive depth.
Unsurprisingly, these additions would displace veteran infielder Tommy La Stella, who would either need to be traded or released to accommodate better players on the roster.
Starting rotation:
SP1: Justin Verlander
SP2: Logan Webb
SP3: Alex Cobb
SP4: Alex Wood
SP5: Anthony DeSclafani
Bullpen:
LR: Jakob Junis
MR: Thomas Szapucki
MR: Tyler Rogers
MR: John Brebbia
SU: Scott Alexander
SU: Kenley Jansen
CL: Camilo Doval
The Giants pitching staff is already in pretty decent shape. However, a big-time arm in the rotation and bullpen would put them over the top. Verlander and Webb were not only two of the best pitchers in the league last season but also have impressive track records working deep into games. Something that would position the bullpen for even more success.
The pen would feature five pitchers with legitimate setup experience (Doval, Jansen, Alexander, Brebbia, and Rogers) alongside a pair of high-quality closers. Adding in impressive young lefty Thomas Szapucki and swingman Jakob Junis would give Kapler an amazing group to play with.
The Giants would also have excellent depth in the upper minor leagues. The Giants Triple-A pitching staff in 2023 has a chance to be one of the best in the minors, where it will likely feature Sean Hjelle, Sam Long, Tristan Beck, and Kyle Harrison in the starting rotation while prospects like R.J. Dabovich, Randy Rodriguez, Nick Avila, Joey Marciano, Cole Waites, Gregory Santos, and Yunior Marte will fill the bullpen.
It's less worthwhile to estimate a specific payroll since the Giants would likely backload contracts and MLB only considers the average annual value of a player's contract for luxury tax purposes anyway. So, this roster would start Opening Day with a $281 million luxury tax number. For what it's worth, that is actually more than $10 million less than the Mets final luxury tax payroll in 2022.
It's Black Friday! Which means folks all across the United States are splurging on anything you can think of. But whether or not you indulge in one of the country's costliest pastimes or not, take some time to consider what the SF Giants could look like this offseason if they simply tried to build the best team they could. Don't worry about the money, what do you want them to do?
