Sixth spot in rotation is Mets' biggest spring competition

The Mets are expected to go with a six-man rotation, but who gets that spot? Will it be Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, or Griffin Canning?

Oct 16, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill (38) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the seventh inning during game three of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Who's got sixth?

That's the major question for the New York Mets entering spring training. They likely will be going with a six-man rotation this season.

Will it be Tylor Megill? Griffin Canning? Paul Blackburn?

Carlos Mendoza on the last rotation spot on the roster:

"It's fluid. A lot can happen between now until March 27th, we've just got to prepare and build everyone up and make sure everyone's ready." pic.twitter.com/GKTFSwh2CG

— SNY (@SNYtv) February 14, 2025

The case for Tylor Megill

Let's start with Megill. The 29-year-old righty has been on a roller coaster ride with this franchise the past four seasons, bouncing up and down from Triple-A to the big leagues on several occasions. He's made 67 starts over four years, 15 of them coming last year.

Megill is coming off a strong ending to the 2024 regular season. Once he returned to the Mets on August 30th, he gave up three earned runs or less in each of his last six starts, including one or less in four of them.

The difficult part with Megill is that he only has one option remaining, so the Mets are going to need to manage him carefully. Regardless of injuries and inconsistency, the reality is he's a walking quality start. His 4.56 ERA is right around what a quality start is: six innings, three runs.

If Megill can go out there and give the Mets quality starts as a sixth starter, they will sign up for that every day and twice on Sunday.

Carlos Mendoza talks about how Tylor Megill can maintain consistency:

"He's got to stay on the attack. He's got to get ahead, put hitters away and limit damage. It's always that one inning that gets away from him, it comes with experience. The good thing is the stuff is there." pic.twitter.com/0w7pEj74n0

— SNY (@SNYtv) February 14, 2025

What also makes Megill potentially the most intriguing option to win this spot is his eight-pitch repertoire. A pitch selection that large and dynamic is rare across the league, and gives him an advantage over opposing batters.

The case for Griffin Canning

Griffin Canning signed a major league deal for $4.25 million, so there won't be options there. The righty struggled last year, as he gave up 31 homers to the tune of a 5.19 ERA over 31 starts with the Angels.

The Mets are hoping a trip to the Jeremy Hefner pitching lab could get him closer to his 2023 form, where he finished with a 4.32 ERA in Los Angeles in 22 starts. When taking the Angels' notoriously poor pitching lab into consideration, maybe Canning can develop into something great with the right staff around him.

Paul Blackburn arrives at spring training pic.twitter.com/83GozkQnkF

— SNY (@SNYtv) February 11, 2025

The case for Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn is the final option, and he's throwing now in spring training after missing the remainder of last season. Blackburn had spinal leak fluid surgery in October, which is usually a 4-5 month recovery time. There is a chance he's not fully healthy by Opening Day, but he could win the job at 100%.

Blackburn only made five starts for the Mets after they acquired him from the Athletics at the trade deadline. He had three great starts in a Mets uniform and two bad ones, ultimately finishing the season with a 4.66 ERA. Hefner and New York's pitching development staff has tinkered with Blackburn's arsenal, but injuries have made it difficult to see those changes in action; perhaps they'll take center stage once he returns to the mound.

A little competition never hurts. One of the three will get the job off the jump, but there's always the chance of injury, which means the other two need to be ready at a moment's notice. There's also a decent chance one of them ends up in the bullpen as a long reliever.

Read More: The New York Mets Should Find a Way to Add a Frontline Starter

Of course, the Mets could instead go with a normal five-man staff and one of them ends up getting booted. But to keep everyone healthy, that options feels unlikely.

The guess would be Megill ends up winning the job, but we'll see over the month of March who stands out more than the others. It's a good situation for the Mets, because if one of them gets it and struggles, they can shuffle the deck. But with options limited on all three, it will take a David Stearns masterclass to make it all work...and that shouldn't be a problem.