The New York Mets Should Find a Way to Add a Frontline Starter

While the Mets rotation is deeper than it's been in a while, workload concerns and the lack of a frontline starter make it a weakness on the roster as compared to the rest of the NL East.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Petco Park. | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

If the New York Mets want to answer Darryl Strawberry's request to end their 38-year title drought, then adding Juan Soto and returning Pete Alonso to last season's NLCS roster isn't enough.

The Mets need to add a frontline starter.

Despite bringing back Sean Manaea and getting back phenom Kodai Senga from his shoulder and calf injuries that robbed him of all but 5.1 innings last season, there is still more work to do for New York to keep pace with last season's NL East winner, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the division's juggernaut in the Atlanta Braves. Losing last year's innings leader in Luis Severino to the Athletics in free agency exacerbates the need to upgrade.

Several common projection systems, including Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA and FanGraphs' Depth Charts, all have the Mets in either 2nd or 3rd place in the division despite an offense that is expected to be one of the best in baseball. PECOTA has the Mets with the 2nd-highest runs scored at 803, just 30 behind the Los Angeles Dodgers' league-leading total of 833, while Depth Charts projects the Mets to a 3rd-best 4.73 runs scored per game.

But neither projection system is nearly as high on the pitching rotation, and when you compare each rotation spot to the corresponding spot in Atlanta or Philly, it's easy to see why.

Senga, commonly listed as the ace of the staff, has 2025 projections that put him roughly with a 3.50 ERA in somewhere between 138.1 to 160 innings, but with up to ten relief appearances to alleviate workload concerns in the back half of the season.

By contrast, Atlanta's expected to get roughly a 3.00 ERA in 180 or so innings from reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, while Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler is seen as pitching over 200 innings with an ERA of just over 3.00. Both pitchers are expected to produce over 4.0 WAR to Senga's 2.4.

This same trend holds true as you move down New York's rotation: Sean Manaea is expected to underperform compared to Philadelphia's Aaron Nola and Atlanta's Reynaldo López, while converting reliever Clay Holmes in the #3 rotation spot is likely to be outperformed by returning starter Spencer Strider of the Braves and Christopher Sánchez of the Phillies.

Here's a breakdown of each team's expected top six starters and projected performance, per FanGraphs:

Starter	ERA	Starter	ERA	Starter	ERA
Kodai Senga	3.64	Zack Wheeler	3.30	Chris Sale	3.03
Sean Manaea	4.17	Aaron Nola	3.84	Reynaldo López	3.56
Clay Holmes	3.60	Christopher Sánchez	3.68	Spencer Strider	3.24
Frankie Montas	4.35	Ranger Suárez	3.62	Spencer Schwellenbach	3.71
David Peterson	3.89	Jesús Luzardo	4.14	Grant Holmes	3.99
Paul Blackburn	4.36	Andrew Painter (R)	4.53	Ian Anderson	4.24

Adding a frontline starter to this Mets rotation, which would bump each returning starter down into a lesser role, has the potential to shift the balance of power in the NL East and better match up the rising Mets with the aging roster of the Phillies and the injury-risk rotation of the Braves.

Here's the question: How do the Mets find that player at this stage of the offseason?

Pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie's Clover Park for the start of spring training next Wednesday. Most prominent free-agent starting pitchers are already signed, with just Nick Pivetta and old friend José Quintana among the second tier of rotation options left in the market at this time. Neither pitcher, at this point in their careers, can be expected to lead a rotation and are better suited for a complementary role.

But on the trade market, there's more top-end pitching available. The San Diego Padres are reportedly interested in moving either Dylan Cease or Michael King if the Mets are interested in a rental, while Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners and Pablo López of the Minnesota Twins are somewhat underperforming veteran arms with multiple years of contractural control remaining.

(Per reports, the Mets are reportedly engaged with the Padres on either of the two starters on expiring contracts, with some of the same prospects that were discussed in the Garrett Crochet trade talks on the table.)

If the season goes sideways for some likely contenders, there are several more frontline starters on expiring deals that could potentially get moved. Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks are pending free agents this winter, as are former Mets veteran starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Former Dodgers ace Walker Buehler, now with the Boston Red Sox as he attempts to return to form after his 2nd Tommy John surgery, is on a one-year deal, as is Cincinnati Reds swingman Nick Martinez. If Jack Flaherty of the Detroit Tigers indicates he plans to exercise his opt-out, he could get moved as well.

Expect the Mets to aggressively pursue a starter this summer as they push for another deep postseason run.