2024 NBA Draft: Elliot Cadeau Scouting Report
This past April, Link Academy won the GEICO High School Nationals -- the most prestigious season award for any high school basketball program. The roster had a number of talented players, including Ja'Kobe Walter, Cameron Carr, Tyler McKinley, Aaron Rowe, and Elliot Cadeau.
Cadeau set the record for most assists in the tournament's history, as he finished with 29 dimes in three games. The 6-foot-1 guard is a freshman at North Carolina this season and is considered the No. 12 overall recruit in his 2023 high school class, according to the 247 Composite rankings.
Let's take a quick look at why Cadeau is considered one of the most talented players in all of college basketball players prior to him even playing a game for UNC.
Offensive Value Proposition
Passing Ability & Vision
First and foremost, the UNC freshman will be one of the most skilled passers in the country this season. Cadeau is capable of making any pass, whether he's in transition or in the halfcourt. His court vision and passing ability singlehandedly creates advantages, as he can throw teammates open in transition and off of lob passes -- similar to the way an elite QB may lead a receiver deep down the field.
Live-Dribble Playmaking
Not only can Cadeau create a fastbreak through his accurate passes, but he's also a skilled playmaker off of pick-and-rolls and on drives to the rim. He uses a quick crossover and change of pace to get to the rim in isolation situations or put pressure on drop coverages in the pick-and-roll, then combines his court vision, constant awareness of where his teammates are, and skilled passing ability to create plays for others.
X-Factors Offensively
While Cadeau is an elite playmaker and can clearly fulfill that component of being a primary ball-handler in the NBA, there are multiple other variables that could limit him at the next level or lead to success at the next level offensively.
The first question: Can Cadeau consistently create rim pressure in the NBA in order to utilize his elite playmaking ability on a play-to-play basis?
He can create rim pressure using the change of pace and quickness discussed and shown above, but the question of whether it will work as well at UNC (and eventually the NBA) as it did in high school is yet to be seen. However, the larger question may be whether or not he truly needs to create consistent rim pressure to be effective. The answer to that would hypothetically be no, as he can utilize ball-screens to showcase his playmaking ability and continue to create offensive opportunities for teammates. He, undoubtedly, will not be a score-first primary ball-handler in the NBA, despite the self-creation flashes he's shown.
Based on the notion that ball-screens will be where Cadeau can be most effective, this leads to another question: Does Cadeau have a sound enough in-between game in the pick-and-roll to rely upon?
Well, first we should break down exactly what that might entail. Let's start from the third level of scoring: Cadeau can hit threes off-the-dribble with enough consistency that teams can't consistently go under and let him stand at the top of the key.
The next level is, if teams play drop coverage against him, can Cadeau punish them with a floater or jumper in the midrange?
The answer to this question is more unclear. His percentage on runners this upcoming season will be extremely important to note, as are his ability to hit off-the-dribble midrange jumpers. As spaces condense in the midrange, combined with Cadeau's lack of size, it may be more difficult for him to hit off-the-dribble midranges compared to the threes he can hit with fair consistency now.
Lastly, what will his finishing numbers at the rim be this season?
Perhaps the most important question of all for Cadeau is whether or not he will be able to handle the length and strength that comes with NBA (or even college) bigs at the rim. His percentage on layups in the halfcourt will be another crucial statistical indicator next season. Although Cadeau will always be a pass-first player, his ability to at least pose a threat at the rim is important to his effectiveness as a primary ball-handler and ability to create plays for others with the same consistency as he did at Link.
Elliot Cadeau's Defense
On-Ball
The most glaring concern that comes with Cadeau's lack of size is how his defense will hold up in the NBA. There is no concern around his effort on the that end, especially on-ball. He fights hard, is fairly laterally quick, and does his best to be physical with guys that are bigger than him.
Unfortunately, opposing players appear to have their shots impacted less when he's guarding them. In two examples below, Cadeau does nothing fundamentally wrong. However, both players are able to make their difficult shot over him because his contest didn't alter their attempts enough to help force a miss.
Cadeau's on-ball defense will be tested further this upcoming year at North Carolina and is absolutely something to watch for. If he proves he's a capable-enough defender to not be targeted by teams in the NBA, then his ability to help his team win has the potential to drastically increase.
Off-Ball
While on-ball defense may prove to be a difficult task in the NBA, the UNC freshman has shown he can provide value on the defensive end by jumping passing lanes -- especially in a full-court press.
Additionally, Cadeau's feel is on full display off-ball defensively and in situations that he may even seem to have a disadvantage. He put his body on the line and, if my count is correct, drew six offensive fouls in the three games during the tournament. These were either when he was navigating screens, drawing charges, on rebounds, or even just when a ball-handler was attempting to create breathing room.
An Important Study on Undersized Guards
There is clear concern among scouts regarding Cadeau's 6-foot-1 size. Zero players shorter than 6-foot-2 were selected in the 2023 NBA Draft and only two were drafted in the 2022 NBA Draft. The two players were Kennedy Chandler and J.D. Davidson, both of whom have struggled for minutes at the NBA level.
Since 2015, only 13 of 27 (48%) NBA Draft selections who are 6-foot-1 or shorter have played five or more years in the NBA or are currently on NBA rosters. However, Cadeau deserves legitimate consideration to be projected into that 48% due to his elite playmaking ability.
Summary
Elliot Cadeau is a 6-foot-1 guard and incoming freshman for UNC this upcoming season. From the jump, he projects to be one of the best passers in the country as he has elite court vision and is an incredibly accurate passer. He is also an elite playmaker, as he can find teammates out of the pick-and-roll and off of drives as well. The questions for Cadeau offensively revolve around whether or not he can consistently create rim pressure at the next level in order to utilize those elite playmaking skills and his in-between game within the pick-and-roll (midrange jumpers, floaters, hostage dribble, etc).
Defensively, his lack of size leads to legitimate concerns on the ball. He has fine lateral quickness but opponents can drive through him, finish over him, or shoot over him when he's on-ball. Additionally, his screen navigation will be another area to watch this upcoming season. Off-ball, Cadeau provides some defensive value as he's aware, makes sound rotations, and also makes other plays that may provide value -- illustrated through drawing offensive fouls or jumping passing lanes.
The question then becomes: At what point in the draft do teams decide the defensive risk is worth the potential offensive reward and playmaking ability Cadeau can provide?
Based on historical data and draft pick contract structure, somewhere in the 26-35 range would make the most sense for Cadeau currently.
When it comes to contract structure, first-round picks have their first two years of their rookie scale contract guaranteed with team options for both the third and fourth years. Therefore, a team would have to be confident enough in his abilities to save a roster spot for Cadeau if he was a first-round pick.
When it comes to historical data on draft pick expectations, we can use DraftExpress' NBA Draft Pick Expectations chart to see the outcomes of NBA draft picks from 1990-2016.
NBA Draft Pick Expectations: 1990-2016
From 1990-2016, 56% of players drafted in the range of 26-30 "stuck" or played 5+ years in the NBA. While this number is a high rate of success, there is reason to believe Cadeau has a similar probability.
When you enter the early second round of the draft in picks 31-35, historically only 37% of players drafted in that range would meet our definition of "sticking" in the NBA or playing 5+ years. This means that the "stick" rate of players drafted under 6-foot-2 since 2015 (48%) is actually higher than the "stick" rate of players drafted from picks 31-35 historically. It should be noted that there is a large sample size difference of 27 players versus 135 players and that the two datasets cover different timelines.
Additionally, while one could argue that the results could compound for Cadeau if drafted in that range, the alternate argument is that the notion that smaller guards are being pushed out of the NBA is actually at a rate that is fairly un-alarming if the player is talented enough. It feels safe to say Cadeau could be the talented exception.
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