2024 NBA Draft: Two Prospects Being Underrated by Consensus

As the NBA Draft approaches, conversations will begin to increasingly focus on who the top pick will be. While this is an intriguing topic, many talented teams without a top pick will be trying to determine who they can draft that others may be overlooking. Let's dive into two players that are being underrated by consensus.

Keshad Johnson

Johnson is a 6-foot-6 (without shoes), 224 pound graduate senior with a 6-foot-10 wingspan. While he will 23 years old at the time of the NBA Draft, Johnson has the potential to fulfill the non-flashy but important "Strength 4" archetype. This archetype was popularized by Adam Spinella, and consists of players who have been crucial to championship-level teams. Players who fulfill this mold include PJ Tucker, Robert Covington, Grant Williams, Jae Crowder and Dorian Finney-Smith. All of these players are stronger, defensive-first “4s” with size that are excellent on-ball defenders, smart off-ball defenders, have some level of catch-and-shoot impact in the NBA, and have high role acceptance.

The former Arizona Wildcat has the realistic potential to check these four boxes at an NBA level. He's one of the best on-ball defenders in the draft, as he uses his physicality, length, and lateral quickness to contain drivers. Additionally, Johnson is a smart off-ball defender who consistently provides value with key rotations, tagging rollers, helping at the nail, and stunting drivers. He recorded a 2.0 steal percentage and 2.7 block percentage this past season while opponents only converted 34.5% of their rim attempts against him (91st PPS percentile).

Offensively, his value proposition relies mostly on his ability to hit catch-and-shoot threes. While this isn't a guarantee, there's reasons to believe in his developing jumper. Johnson converted 39.6% of his catch-and-shoot threes this season (83 attempts) after shooting only 24.6% on catch-and-shoot threes during his four seasons at San Diego State. Additionally, Johnson's free throw percentage jumped to 71% this season (107 attempts) after being only 60.9% during his four seasons at San Diego State (220 attempts).

Johnson's shot prep isn't the quickest, resulting in a dichotomy between unguarded catch-and-shoot percentage (48.1%) and guarded catch-and-shoot percentage (28.2%). If he can continue to quicken his shot -- which has improved throughout the season -- it is realistic for him to fulfill this archetype. Johnson shot 52% (12/23) from beyond the arc during the month of March.

Lastly, Johnson has also shown flashes of getting downhill in the short roll as well. His 42-inch maximum vertical also indicates potential as a lob threat off pick-and-rolls.

Grade: Early Second-Round Pick

Jared McCain

A player who's beginning to get increased buzz, McCain may still not be projected high enough in the 2024 NBA Draft.

To start, he's likely the best off-ball shooter in this class: He has one of the most fluid, consistent forms, converted 88.5% of his free throw attempts, and shot 41.4% from deep on 11 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. Additionally, McCain has shown a multitude of potential as a pick-and-roll ball handler as well. McCain does an excellent job at manipulating the defending big by holding out his hostage dribbles until his roller is open. This, combined with his ability to shoot off the dribble and natural playmaking, gives him the potential to handle a secondary ball-handler role that will complement his off-ball shooting. This potential in the pick-and-roll could indicate potential as a low-volume primary ball-handler down the line as well.

Additionally, McCain is capable of attacking closeouts, has smooth footwork in the paint, and is a savvy player on both ends of the floor. While he's likely to only be able to contain guards defensively, he's a smart off-ball defender and has the frame to hold his own.

The 6-foot-2 height (without shoes) and 6-foot-3 wingspan concerns are legitimate for someone who projects to be more of an off-ball guard from the jump, but McCain's likelihood of impacting the game immediately with his playmaking, shooting, and pick-and-roll reps and long-term potential as a primary ball-handler cannot be ignored. This, combined with his reported work ethic, makes him a worthy lottery selection in this draft class.

Grade: Late Lottery

All play-by-play data is courtesy of Synergy Sports.

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