2026 NBA Draft: Depth has Thinned as NIL Poaches First-Round Talents

The '26 draft's first round is thinner than it was weeks ago.

Mar 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) shoots the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The 2026 NBA Draft has long been heralded as one of the best classes in some time, and while that’s largely held true, a wave of collegiate returnees has started to thin the depth somewhat. 

The class is headlined by a quartet of top-tier picks in AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson, all of which would be No. 1-level talents in any given year. That alone has caused a domino effect through the class, pushing other talents further down and creating a truly deep crop.

The lottery remains talented due to that, but there have been a few players just outside that range to submit their names for a return, namely Florida’s Thomas Haugh and UConn’s Braylon Mullins.

The current NIL landscape has the ability to offer players in the late-first range similar or even better one-year deals, making it a more interesting decision than previously thought for league-bound prospects.

Mullins, who hit the hero shot to take down Duke in the Elite Eight, put together a productive freshman season with the Huskies built on 3-point shooting and high-feel play. At 6-foot-6 with premier perimeter upside, his range was likely to start outside the lottery and extend to the end of the first round.

Haugh saw a breakout junior season with Florida, just one year after helping the Gators to the national championship. He averaged 17.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, shooting 46% overall and 33% from three on better volume. Many believe Haugh could’ve been a lottery pick, though his most likely range was just outside the lottery and into the late-first range. 

While Haugh and Mullins weren’t likely to be Day 1 starters in the NBA, they certainly added value to the class as a whole, with that middle section now thinned out somewhat. 

Duke center Patrick Ngongba II helped to do the same with his return to the Blue Devils. He saw an expectedly good second year averaging 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game alongside Boozer, and has now chosen to go back in favor of boosting his stock again. His stock, too, was likely in the mid-to-late first range. 

While those three are the most consequential there’s several more that are likely to pull out of the draft process after getting feedback. Some players on the line include Tounde Yessoufou, Allen Graves, Tyler Tanner, Amari Allen and more, all of which would be individual hits to the class’s depth. 

Ultimately, it's not a dire thing for the NBA. The aforementioned players will eventually make their way to the NBA, and now have additional seasons at the college level to work on their game. But it does make for more interesting draft classes overall, with players now entering later.