A December Update to The Productive Young Athlete Query
As analytics continues to grow in popularity within the world of basketball, statistical queries have increased in prevalence to help scouts find the next diamond in the rough. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Before continuing to read, feel free to check out my original article on the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query here.
Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five or more seasons in the NBA. Prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.
Introduction
Since 2008, 78% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 76 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 59 of them went on to play five or more seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league.
A freshman prospect with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5 indicates that the player is likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor. A dunk threshold of 4+ helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to withdraw a few prospects who are productive in college but may lack the athleticism to stick in the NBA from our query. Adding the four dunk threshold increases the hit-rate from 71% to 78% while only decreasing the sample size from 85 to 76 prospects since 2008.
Which Players are on Track to Meet the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) Query?
As of Dec. 4, 2023, there are five players on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete Query for the 2023-2024 college basketball season that already have four or more dunks on the season. In addition to four or more dunks, all five players have a BPM that's greater than or equal to 7.5, are playing 40% or more of their team's minutes so far, and are all freshmen.
List in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM
JT Toppin, New Mexico State
Toppin is 6-foot-9, 210 pounds and is averaging 12 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game so far this season while shooting 76% at the rim, 82% from 2s away from the rim, and 73% from the free throw line (22 attempts). From an advanced statistical perspective, he's recording a 3.1 steal percentage, 7.9 block percentage, a 13% offensive rebounding percentage, and a 22.5 defensive rebounding percentage. Lastly, Toppin is in the 85th percentile in P&R Roll Man possessions (1.385 Points Per Possession) and has accumulated a 10.8 Box Plus-Minus so far this season.
KJ Lewis, Arizona
Lewis is a 6-foot-4 guard for the Wildcats that's also been impactful on both ends, especially defensively. On this end of the floor, he's recording a 3.6 steal percentage and 4.1 block percentage. Offensively, he's converting 67% of his attempts at the rim (21 attempts) and 83% of his free throw attempts (12 attempts) while also being active on the boards as he has a 6.7 offensive rebounding percentage thus far. Lastly, he's recording 1.4 Points Per Possession on ten Transition possessions so far this season and has totaled a 10.1 BPM.
De'Shayne Montgomery, Mount Saint Mary's
Perhaps the player with the least media attention out of the five here, the 6-foot-4 guard played a post-grad year at Hargrave Military Academy prior to enrolling at Mount St. Mary's. Through seven games so far this season, Montgomery is averaging 13 points, three steals, and a block while converting 66% of his rim attempts (35 attempts), 42% of his threes (12 attempts), 74% of his 19 free throw attempts, and 53% of his non-rim two-pointers (15 attempts). 61.2% of his 31 non-three point makes this season are unassisted as well. All of this comprises to a 9.6 BPM.
Motiejus Krivas, Arizona
Krivas is a 7-foot-2 big for the Wildcats who's averaging 9 points per game and shooting 75% from the free throw line (28 attempts). He's also drawing fouls easily, as he has a .667 free-throw rate so far this season -- meaning he's shooting two free throws for every three field goal attempts. The Lithuanian native is also extremely active on the offensive boards (15.8 offensive rebounding percentage) while creating events defensively (2.4 steal percentage and 7.8 block percentage). He's efficient in the post (1 Points Per Possession) but is only converting 48% of his non-dunks at the rim, a number that is low for someone his size and something to monitor as the season progresses. All in all, he has been very productive and has accumulated a Box Plus-Minus of 8.5.
Yves Missi, Baylor
A player I was able to watch high school film of prior to the season, Missi is a 7-foot big man that played at Prolific Prep. He is a fluid mover for his size, which is evident when rolling off pick-and-rolls and in transition. He's also a savvy defender and he's valuable both rotating from the weakside and defending in the pick-and-roll.
Statistically, Missi is averaging 10 points and two blocks a game while recording a 18.5 offensive rebounding percentage and 13 block percentage. Most notably, Baylor is averaging 1.33 Points Per Possession where Missi is the roller -- good for the 81st percentile in the country. Lastly, Missi has a .98 free throw rate (almost one free throw per field goal attempt) and is converting 70% of his attempts at the rim (including 67% on non-dunks). He has a 7.8 BPM so far this season.
Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 1-3 dunks on the Season
While these players haven't hit the dunk threshold yet, there is a ton of college basketball left to be played and these four potential prospects are currently on track to meet the Productive Young Athlete query.
List in order of highest BPM to lowest BPM
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
Sheppard is a 6-foot-3 freshman guard for the Wildcats who is the most productive freshman in college basketball at the moment. He's shooting 85% at the rim (13 attempts), 43% from other 2s (14 attempts), 64% on catch-and-shoot threes (28 attempts), and 100% from the free throw line (11 attempts). While all of the sample sizes are fairly limited, his feel for the game on both ends of the floor, his elite efficiency, 14 points per game, and advanced playmaking ability cannot be ignored.
Additionally, he's been very impactful defensively, garnering a 6.1 steal percentage and 3.8 block percentage so far this season, while also making smart rotations and playing quality on-ball defense that doesn't always see the stat sheet. All of this is good enough for an off-the-charts 16.7 Box Plus/Minus.
Mason Falslev, Utah State
Falslev is a 6-foot-3 guard averaging 12 points, three assists, five rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game while converting 76% of his attempts at the rim (21 attempts), 71% of his other 2s (17 attempts), and a solid 38% of his catch-and-shoot threes. One concern thus far in his shooting profile is that he's only shooting 17% on guarded catch-and-shoot threes (6 attempts) while converting 50% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes (10 attempts). This, in addition to only making 53% of his free throw attempts (15 attempts), may be reason for concern regarding his long-term shooting potential. However, all of these are small sample sizes, giving Falslev an opportunity to improve.
Additionally, Falslev's production cannot be ignored. Aside from fairly efficient scoring, he has a 4.1 steal percentage, 1.6 block percentage, 5.4 offensive rebounding percentage, and a 21 assist percentage through 8 games -- meaning he can be productive even if his shot's not falling.
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
Dillingham is a 6-foot-2 freshman guard for the Wildcats who's averaging 14 points, 5.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game and has been productive enough to a garner a Box Plus/Minus of 8.4 so far this season. Offensively, the former Overtime Elite guard is shooting 50% on catch-and-shoot threes (22 attempts) and 75% from the free throw line (16 attempts). Additionally, he's recorded a 38.5 assist percentage so far, meaning he's assisting almost 39% of his teammate's field goals when he's on the floor. Dillingham is also creating 1.58 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball handler (18 total possessions), which puts him in the 100th percentile in pick-and-roll ball handler possessions. Defensively, he is also recording a 3.5 steal percentage, proving he can provide a level of value on both ends of the floor.
Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor
Walter is my highest ranked player on my board out of all of the listed prospects thus far. The Link Academy product is always impacting the game in one way or another, and his work ethic shows up on the court. He has the NBA size, length, athleticism, and potential in numerous areas. Walter is a smart off-ball cutter offensively, can hit catch-and-shoot threes with enough consistency, is elite at attacking closeouts, and has even shown the ability to create his own shot both as a driver and as a shooter off the dribble. Defensively, he's active off-ball -- especially as a help defender at the nail -- and has the functional athleticism to be a good on-ball defender as well.
The five-star recruit is averaging 15 points, four rebounds, and 1.5 steals while shooting 87% from the free throw line (39 attempts), 64% at the rim (14 attempts), 39% from other 2s (23 attempts), and 39% on catch-and-shoot threes (43 attempts). He's also recording a 6.8 offensive rebounding percentage, 3.1 steal percentage, and has accumulated a Box-Plus Minus of 7.7.
Walter has legitimate Top-10 upside.
Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and Zero Dunks on the Season
While these players are freshmen playing almost a majority of their team's minutes while still being very productive, they have not met the minimum athletic threshold of four dunks nor are they on track to thus far as none have recorded a dunk this season. As mentioned briefly earlier, players who still meet the above three criteria (freshmen, MIN%≥40, and BPM≥7.5) still have a high hit rate of 71% since 2008. Although there is a lower likelihood that they stick in the NBA than the players previously mentioned, these five players are still worth looking into.
Josh Hubbard, Mississippi State
Hubbard is a 5-foot-10 guard that's averaging 16 points per game while shooting 89% from the free throw line (27 attempts), 55% from the midrange (22 attempts), and an adequate 38% on 33 catch-and-shoot threes. Oftentimes a concern for undersized guards, Hubbard is only converting 37% of his attempts at the rim. Regardless, his 12.1 BPM cannot be ignored.
Unfortunately, as mentioned in my Study on Undersized Guards from a few weeks ago, zero drafted players under 6-foot have stuck in the NBA from the 2013-2022 NBA Draft classes (0-of-8) and only 3-of-19 (15.8%) of players drafted listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck in that same time frame (2013-2022 draft classes). While the numbers suggest it will be difficult for him to stick in the NBA, it is not impossible.
A potential sign of optimism can be rooted in him currently having a 3.4 Defensive Box Plus-Minus, as 61.5% of the 13 undersized guards drafted from 2013-2022 with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +3.0 or better in their final season prior to being drafted stuck in the NBA or are on track to stick.
Johnny Kinziger, Illinois State
Another player who falls into the undersized guard bucket with Hubbard, Kinziger is a 5-foot-11 guard averaging 7.5 points while shooting 90% from the free throw line (10 attempts), 45% on catch-and-shoot threes (20 attempts) and 54% on non-rim 2s (13 attempts). While the historical data indicates a low likelihood of sticking in the NBA, Kinziger currently has over a 3.0 Defensive Box Plus-Minus, meaning there could be reason for optimism as well. Overall, he's recorded a 9.8 BPM so far this season.
John Blackwell, Wisconsin
Blackwell is a 6-foot-4 guard for the Badgers that's averaging nine points per game while shooting 86% from the free throw line (29 attempts), 42% from non-rim 2s, and 54% on catch-and-shoot threes (13 attempts). He's also recording a 6.2 offensive rebounding percentage, a high number for a guard. Blackwell is undoubtedly a player to monitor in the coming years.
Malik Mack, Harvard
Next up is 6-foot-1 Harvard guard Malik Mack, who has been averaging an outstanding 20 points, 4.4 assists, four rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game through nine games this season. Perhaps most intriguing is the efficiency he's putting up these numbers with, as he's shooting 44% on non-rim 2s (39 attempts), 52% on catch-and-shoot threes (21 attempts), and 86.5% from the free throw line (52 attempts). The Ivy League Player of the Year candidate is also in the 95th percentile in pick-and-roll ball handler possessions (1.2 points per possession on 38 possessions). Lastly, he's accumulated a BPM of 8.6 so far this season.
While undersized guards have seen a decreasing likelihood to stick within the past 10 draft classes, one of my three main takeaways from my study on undersized guards was to consider not counting out 6-foot-1 guards for the immediate future. This is because a number of them are finding a way to create successful careers for themselves. While 50% (7-of-14) stuck from the 2003-2012 draft classes, 76.4% (13-of-17) stuck or are on track to stick from the 2013-2022 draft classes. This includes players like Payton Pritchard, Darius Garland, and Trae Young. Mack is undoubtedly a player to watch as the season progresses.
Xzayvier Brown, Saint Joseph's
Brown is a 6-foot-2 guard that's averaging 11 points, three assists, four rebounds, and two steals per game through eight games this season. He's recording a 3.9 steal percentage and 23.8 assist percentage while converting almost 60% of his attempts at the rim (32 attempts) and 55% of his catch-and-shoot threes (20 attempts). His free throw percentage could improve from a long-term shooting indication standpoint, but it's too early to tell as he's only attempted 12 free throws all season. Brown is another player to watch on a Saint Joseph's team that has a multitude of talent.
All BPM data accurate on Barttorvik.com as of Monday, December 4th, 2023.
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