Examining Dylan Harper's Finishing Growth

Dylan Harper, the third-ranked recruit from the class of 2024, has had a fantastic start to the season with Rutgers. In four games, the 6-foot-6 guard is averaging 19.5 points with an impressive 29.9% assist rate and 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio, helping Rutgers post a 121.4 offensive rating with him on the court.

The surprising part of Harper's early season dominance is that it isn't coming much as a dynamic shotmaker. In high school, most of his production came from his innate ability to get his spots using speed and strength and finishing over defenders with plus touch. His shotmaking only improved each year, especially from behind the arc.

Dylan Harper, 6'6 with a 6'10 wingspan, is a rim pressure creator who wins with his handle, physicality, and an understanding of driving angles. But as is the question with most jumbo-sized advantage creating prospects: how is the shot looking like?

Charting his year-over-year… pic.twitter.com/8AIeNeRUB1
— Maurya K. (KR) (@TheFlarescreen) July 24, 2024

Yet, he's only shot 2-of-8 on non-rim twos and 31% from three thus far. Instead, most of his production has come from finishing at the rim. He's shooting 75% at the rim with three dunks and a 46.2 free-throw rate, all elite marks.

This is even more surprising when taking into account Harper wasn't anywhere near a dominant finisher in high school, despite being bigger and stronger than most of his peers. In five EYBL and AAU seasons tracked by Synergy Sports, he only once ever finished above the 60th percentile in rim frequency, and was 48th percentile in frequency and 63rd percentile in efficiency in his final AAU season.

Most of his hindrances were caused by a somewhat mediocre handle (though, good relative to size and age, which has powered his development) as he depended more on an intersection of craft and physicality to carve out looks for himself. When faced with excessive ball pressure, he fell victim to early ball pickups and turnovers. These early pickups limited his ability to get deeper into the paint and finish over the second layer of defenders.

Dylan Harper has an iffy handle that holds him back as a downhill scorer. While he pairs good handling counters (crossovers, spin move, behind the back dribble) with good burst and physicality (6’7, 238 lbs) to get by his defender, his handle is exposed to pokes and digs partly… pic.twitter.com/jFAx5QxCGi
— Maurya K. (KR) (@TheFlarescreen) August 24, 2024

But as noted previously, these are fairly common issues for young creators and ones that are easy to fix with basic development. And that's exactly what happened. Now, you see Harper splitting pick-and-rolls and finishing at the rim through traffic with ease at the high-major level.

This improved handling has opened up a chain of skills for Harper. It's allowed him to get deeper paint touches, which has weaponized his finishing at greater levels, and has thus allowed him to distribute at very high levels as well.

Dylan Harper with the P&R split + finishes through traffic at the rim pic.twitter.com/zyDsmON5N7
— AJ (@NBA_Jeremy1) November 20, 2024

It's very early on in the season, with small sample sizes against lower-levels of competitions for high-major teams. This makes it difficult to know if anything will stick by the end of the season. But, given Harper's tools and demonstrated progression of skills, it's likely he has taken a leap as a finisher.

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