NBA Draft: A Statistical Deep Dive on Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is one of the most decorated NBA Draft prospects that we've seen in recent years. He led a talented Montverde Academy team to a 2024 Chipotle High School Nationals Championship and a 33-0 season. That Montverde team now has four projected first round picks in Derik Queen, Liam McNeeley, Asa Newell, and Cooper Flagg himself.

Additionally, Flagg was named the 2023-24 Gatorade National Player of the Year, Naismith National Player of the Year, and a McDonald's All-American last season.

He also won a Gold Medal with USA Basketball in the 2022 FIBA U17 World Cup where he was named to the 2022 FIBA U17 World Cup All-Star Five. Lastly, Flagg was the only non-professional basketball player to be named to the 2024 USA Men's Junior National Select Team.

Cooper Flagg has lived up to expectations at Duke, as the consensus projected number one overall pick has had an incredible season at the college level. Let's dive into how impressive he's been from a statistical standpoint.

The Numbers

The 6-foot-9, 205 pound freshman is averaging 19.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, four assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 61.9% at the rim (126 attempts), 42.1% on non-rim twos (107 attempts), 81.4% from the free throw line (156 attempts), and 37% from beyond the arc (3.8 attempts per game, 92 total attempts, and 7.3 three point attempts per 100 possessions).

Additionally, he's recording a 5.9 offensive rebound percentage, 20.5 defensive rebound percentage, a three steal percentage, and a 4.2 block percentage. He's the engine on both ends of the floor for the No. 3 team in the country. Offensively, he's been unassisted on 54.1% of his made field goals this season while assisting on an estimated 25.3% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor.

When it comes to play-by-play data, Flagg is just as impressive. He's in the 75th percentile in points per possession in pick-and-roll possessions (including passes) (150 possessions), 85th percentile in points per possessions in transition (56 possessions), and in the 96th percentile in points per possession in Post-Ups (including passes) possessions (53 possessions). Flagg is also shooting a solid 38.6% on catch-and-shoot threes (70 attempts) and 38.2% on all dribble jumpers (68 attempts).

When you look at all-encompassing advanced metrics, Flagg is currently recording a 14.0 Box Plus-Minus. This is the second-highest in the country, behind only Johni Broome (14.8 Box Plus-Minus). This gives him the highest Box Plus-Minus of any freshman, as the second-highest is Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe with a 10.4 Box Plus-Minus.

The Duke wing is also on pace to have the sixth-highest Box Plus-Minus for a freshman since 2008, with only Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, and Chet Holmgren having more productive seasons -- giving Flagg a higher Box Plus-Minus than Karl-Anthony Towns, Evan Mobley, and James Harden, the seventh, eighth, and ninth-highest Box Plus-Minus seasons.

Top Ten Highest Box Plus-Minus as Freshmen, according to Barttorvik.com

Name	Box Plus-Minus	Season
Zion Williamson	18.7	2018-19
Anthony Davis	16.7	2011-12
Michael Beasley	14.9	2007-08
Kevin Love	14.6	2007-08
Chet Holmgren	14.1	2021-22
Cooper Flagg	14.0	2024-25
Karl-Anthony Towns	13.1	2014-15
Evan Mobley	12.6	2020-21
James Harden	11.5	2007-08
Nerlens Noel	11.1	2012-13

Lastly, from an observational study perspective, Cooper Flagg is on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete query. Since 2008,76% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40,BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 84 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2022 NBA Drafts, 64 of them went on to play five or more seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league.

Cooper Flagg is having a historically strong freshman season and it will be exciting to see how he continues to develop his own game and lead this Duke team in March.

All play-by-play data is courtesy of Synergy Sports.

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