NBA Draft: Projecting Second-Round Breakouts
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The vast majority of NBA drafts have had breakouts from players selected in the second round, to the point where rebuilding teams in the league today are careful to not trade around those selections unless it's worth it.
(Contenders, however, have a different approach, which at times seem like a complete mismanagement of assets - a topic I'll save for another day.)
The 2023 draft is likely to be no exception when it comes to unearthing quality in the later round, so let's take a look at some of the second round candidates, who can make some noise on the court in the coming years.
Note: Since we don't yet know the players actually selected in the second round, we're going off Tankathon's estimated projections through June 3.
Jalen Wilson, Kansas
Wilson didn't exactly test out all that well, standing just under 6-foot-7, and with a 6-foot-8 wingspan. But what he lacks in measurements, he makes up for versatile production.
Wilson is a combo forward who can attack off the bounce, finish plays inside, and has the physical frame to absorb some contact, allowing him to draw free throws. His 20.1 points per game aren't that interesting on the surface, but the way he got them is a bit eye-opening.
Wilson took 5.5 free throws per game, as well as 5.8 attempts from range. NBA teams are always looking for players who can squeeze out extra points, be that from cashing in on 3-pointers, or forcing themselves to the line. Wilson offers both avenues, even if he's still a work in progress as a long-range shooter (33.7% on the season).
Wherever Wilson lands, the team drafting him will need to push his evolution as a shooter, and as a ball-handler. He's shown enough in those areas to justify further exploration but is currently not in a category where he can hang consistently with NBA wings.
Sidy Cissoko, G-League Ignite
Alright, look. I get the raw stats aren't that impressive, and I get the shooting efficiency is an area for much improvement. I even concede that Cissoko's 6-foot-9.75 wingspan isn't necessarily a major asset to his 6-foot-7 frame.
But at 19, Cissoko is a rare playmaker who down the line could develop into the role of a two-way connector, not dissimilar to what we're seeing from Bruce Brown these days.
There's A LOT of work yet to be done, and the team drafting him will need patience. But Cissoko's ability to read the floor, combined with his already fairly developed physique (224-pounds), isn't something you find on trees.
Someone with that size, who can initiate pick and roll action, and even finish plays himself due to his on-ball creation, should be given a chance immediately at the NBA level. Putting him back in the G-League to develop further would be a waste of time.
Kobe Brown, Missouri
At 6-foot-7.5 with a 252-pound frame, Brown is a beast of a player. He tested out well, sporting a 7-foot-0.75 wingspan, and most importantly knows how to make use of his strong body.
Brown is a big wing - who might be used mostly as a power forward in the NBA - who can finish plays near the rim, get to the line, and now shoot. His made a major leap from his junior to senior season, going from 20.6% from range on 68 attempts to 45.5% on 112 attempts.
While I don't entirely trust that percentage quite yet (it's just a one-year sample), his mechanics were clean, and his confidence sky-high. He'd step into 3-pointers and launch with no hesitation, even with defenders closing aggressively.
Brown is also a high-quality passer. That may not show up on the stat sheet, but in the layers of Missouri's elite offense, he was making a ton of plays from the elbows, finding cutters, and shooters roaming the perimeter. On the right team in the NBA, Brown could become a Swiss army knife off the bench.
Adama Sanogo, Connecticut
Maybe I'm just not reading the room right, but Sanogo seems like a guy who you could justify selecting in the later stages of the first round.
Physically, he's a beast. He's got a wide 256-pound frame attached to his 6-foot-8.25 body, and sports a wingspan of nearly 7-foot-3. He seals off his defenders in the post well, entirely unafraid to put his body to good use. Down low, he's even got some moves to spin his way open, and isn't just a dunker.
Production-wise, he's simply outstanding. He put up 17.2 points, and 7.7 rebounds, in just 26.5 minutes. He hit on over 60% from the field, and improved his free throw percentage year after year, to the point where you can't foul him anymore. This season, he connected on 76.6% of his foul shots.
Yes, he's undersized in terms of height. Yes, it takes about a year for him to launch a 3-pointer. There are certain limitations to be aware of, but to overlook his size, his touch, not to mention his ability to get better every summer, would be a mistake.
An NBA team could also work on his body, and help transform his body into one that's a bit leaner, so he can become a more sustainable defender, particularly in space. At 21, it's not too late for Sanogo to improve in the margins.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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