NBA Draft: Who Ends Up the No. 3 Prospect?
As things currently stand it looks like the 2023 NBA Draft will truly start with the No. 3 overall pick.
French sensation and generational talent, Victor Wembanyama, is almost assuredly to hear his name selected No. 1 overall.
G-League Ignite star, Scoot Henderson, should follow right after as the No. 2 pick regardless. Something that was written about just a couple of weeks ago.
So, who has the lead for being the next prospect off the board? Right now, you could get five different answers from five different draft analysts. Let’s take a look at seven of the names that might pop, with real possibility there are more, and what the Cerebro Sports metrics are saying about them.
All metrics and stats are via Cerebro Sports.
Amen Thompson (Guard | OTE)
The case was made for Amen Thompson as the third best prospect in the class in an article at the beginning of January.
The 6-foot-7 Thompson Twin has an overall C-RAM score of 9.0 in the 18 games tracked for the City Reapers this season.
He is averaging just under 16 points per game to go along with 6.5 rebounds and six assists. Thompson is shooting 55% from the field but you don’t have to watch film for long to see that many of those are in run out transition opportunities.
The biggest concerns are evaluating the 20-year-old against the OTE competition and the poor shooting numbers. In those 18 games Thompson has made just 12 3-point attempts and is shooting just 61% from the free throw line.
What keeps him at the top of this conversation is the fact he will be a 99th percentile athlete as soon as he walks into the league and has an intriguing passing and defensive foundation.
Ausar Thompson (Wing | OTE)
At times it seems that Ausar Thompson can be a little overlooked and which was also written about early last month.
Ausar actually has a better overall C-RAM score than his brother with a 9.4 and is currently the better defender which is also shown by his defensive stats impact (DSI) score of 100.
While Amen often gets discussed as the more on ball creator, Ausar holds his own in that area as well accumulating 5.7 assists per game.
Of course, the age and level of competition narrative is the same with Ausar and for being considered more of an off the ball player the shooting numbers simply are not that great.
Ausar has only made 19 3-pointers in the 18 games tracked and is only a tick better than his twin from the free throw line, 67%.
Selling teams on a true ability to be a high level off the ball player and consistent shooter would be the wild card in Ausar being taken No. 3 overall.
Brandon Miller (Wing | Alabama)
The 6-foot-9 Miller has consistently been a part of the cerebro sports 3-point efficiency series and found himself at the top of the list in the most recent iteration.
Outside of Amen Thompson, Miller is probably the most common name you will find at the third spot on big boards.
The University of Alabama freshman is averaging 19 points per game on shooting splits of 46, 44, 82.
The high level shot making is undeniable but there are questions around his finishing inside the 3-point line and, like the Thompson twins, he is already 20-years-old as a college freshman.
With that said, the production is undeniable with an overall C-RAM score of 10.9 and is doing so on one of the best teams in the country.
If Miller continues this level of production through February and helps his team make a deep run in March, he very well end up being the betting favorite for hearing his name third overall on draft night.
Cam Whitmore (Wing | Villanova)
The Villanova wing was probably the closest to consensus No. 3 overall prospect coming into the season based on his play with the Team USA U19 team this summer.
A pre-season injury caused a slow start to his season and while he has flashed all of his potential the consistency has not been there.
For someone in the top five, none of the Cerebro metrics really pop out as he is below 75 in every offensive metric and has an overall C-RAM of 8.0.
It is still easy to see how a team selecting third would fall in love with his versatility and the explosive athleticism he displays and it should be noted that he will not turn 19 until July.
Jarace Walker (Forward | Houston)
The next few prospects may be long shots to truly go No. 3 but they are, or have, generated enough buzz to at least be mentioned.
Walker’s offensive impact was highlighted in a recent article and is something he has been putting on display more and more.
Combine that with physical presence and potential defense and you could see where the right team may decide he is the best choice for them as high as three.
The 6-foot-8 forward actually has the best C-RAM score, 12.4, of anyone on the list and an extremely impressive DSI of 110.
Don’t be surprised if Walker’s name hangs around these discussions for the next few months.
Nick Smith Jr. (Guard | Arkansas)
The overall talent of the Arkansas guard is too much to not at least mention even with the limited playing time due to injury.
There are reports that the 6-foot-5 guard could be returning sooner rather than later (Smith Jr. played his first game back on Saturday) which may give us a real opportunity at evaluating his play.
Smith Jr. projected as a 3-level scorer with creation ability coming out of high school and showcasing that at the college level, even for 10 or so games, would immediately put him back in this discussion.
Keyonte George (Guard | Baylor)
George is probably similar to Walker in that it would take the right team selection No. 3 overall for him to be the pick but the possibility is definitely there.
George is a 6-foot-4 combo guard whose metrics won’t blow you away with a C-RAM score of 8.4 and no individual score higher than an 82, 3-point efficiency (3PE).
At the end of the day, a team would have to buy into George being a straight bucket getter that is so good at that one skill it makes up for not impacting the game a lot in other ways.
If he were to improve on his overall scoring efficiency, 39% from the field and 34% from the 3-point line, and showcase more intriguing playmaking and defensive impact it would go a long way in truly getting his name a part of this conversation.
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