When To Make The "All-In" Trade
Trading away multiple draft picks for one player has become the norm over the past half decade, to the point where teams with discontent superstars on their roster are already mapping out their future selections.
However, the practice doesn't come without risk, and given how strong a tool the draft actually is, plenty of teams are far too cavalier about forking over cost-controlled assets for what could be brief championship windows, or no window whatsoever.
Of course, situations vary.
Take the Chicago Bulls, for example. They decided two lottery selections (and Wendell Carter Jr.) were perfectly reasonable compensation for Nikola Vučević in 2021. Those two selections turned into Franz Wagner - a player who looks like a future All-Star - and Jett Howard, picked No. 11 in this year's draft.
The Bulls aren't remotely close to a championship, and Vučević will soon be in his mid-30's which doesn't exactly inspire much confidence in a future deep playoff run.
Now let's take the Milwaukee Bucks who decided Jrue Holiday was the missing piece to a championship team. The Bucks relinquished two firsts and two swaps, spanning from 2024 to, and including, 2027. Milwaukee took home the trophy in 2021, justifying the trade even if the organization could be looking at a rough few years in front of them.
So, the question arises: How much does timing factor into the all-in trade, where you sacrifice much of your future?
Immensely.
Using the all-in trade to get off the ground, like Chicago did, borders on malpractice. The Bulls did have Zach LaVine on the roster at the time of the Vučević trade, but they were well-aware LaVine was never a true primary option on a championship level team.
The Bucks, on the other hand, had Giannis Antetokounmpo in the fold, who had clearly proven himself to be a top-tier superstar.
The Lakers found themselves in a similar situation when they gave up their youth pipeline to New Orleans for Anthony Davis. With LeBron James already on the roster, it makes sense to go all-in.
(This is where Cavs fans will begin to ponder... "So, how do we look at the Donovan Mitchell trade?", to which I say the next nine months will get us much closer to an answer.)
The all-in trade commands the presence of a fully-fledged in-prime superstar who provides a team with a high enough baseline that the secondary star coming in functions as the ceiling raiser.
Using picks like candy - unless you're close enough to a title that you can smell the gold off the Larry O'Brien championship trophy - is generally a bad idea.
Young players have never been better than right now. Let's just use that old theory of rookies being horrible defenders. In recent years we've seen multiple players make their way into the league and be immediate contributors on the defensive end.
The available talent outside of the NBA, whether that's in college, internationally, or somewhere in between like the G League Ignite, is the highest we've ever seen, making it perfectly reasonable to build through the draft over a handful of years. It's time consuming, yes, but if you play your card rights, you can find multiple stars via the draft, without making the all-in trade, allowing yourself to have a steady flow of incoming talent via future selections.
Look, it all comes down to situation. All-in trades aren't all bad, just as they aren't all good. You just have to fully understand where you are as a basketball team, and what type of personnel you're working with, before you pull the trigger.
However, even the Bucks who the title will have to admit the pain of relinquishing the future, especially with the amount of talent they'll now let go straight onto the Pelicans' roster.
The all-in trade, at the very least, should be considered a momentary tool of consequence. You can use it, but in the end, you could pay for it. Deeply.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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