Setting Expectations For Victor Wembanyama

In the past six or so months, after the Victor Wembanyama hype train left the station, there has been an undercurrent in the NBA discourse that essentially ends with the notion that Wembanyama "better live up to the hype".

The idea - or reaction - is that anyone earning this many headlines somehow owes it to the viewing public to live up to certain standards and objectives.

That isn't uncommon for hyped prospects, or hyped veterans for that matter, so it tracks on some level that people feel that they've been force-fed a narrative, which then better pan out. They've been given a promise that Wembanyama will be the next great superstar, and the savior of worlds.

After the San Antonio Spurs won the the draft lottery, Wembanyama's name was everywhere, as were the comparisons to both Tim Duncan and David Robinson.

It all led to one place: Expectations.

But let's take a more holistic approach to the whole Wembanyama storyline, before we see people riot in the streets if he fails to make the All-Star game as a rookie.

First and foremost, it's crucial to remember that Wembanyama doesn't control the international media. He didn't send me an email to compare him to both Kevin Durant and Rudy Gobert as I've done since last fall, nor did he orchestrate a wide media campaign to get the spotlight put onto him.

He generated this level of hype because he is in fact a mesmerizing prospect, and one of the best we've ever seen. Being 7-foot-5, sporting 3-point range, manufacturing shots like a point guard, and using an 8-foot wingspan to block and deter shots will do that.

While Wembanyama has embraced the hype, one can't but wonder what the alternative should have been. Should he have rejected praise? Rejected the path he's on? What exactly would have been the most appropriate response to a world all turning their heads in his direction?

Being famous worldwide at 19 isn't exactly easy to navigate. You're growing up in front of a global audience, which will one day find out that you aren't perfect, after which they'll crucify you for being human.

Embracing the fame, if for nothing else than making life easier, might be the only option worth taking to optimize mental health.

In terms of expectations, it goes without saying that Wembanyama himself will be among his own worst critics. No basketball player worth his salt has ever been satisfied with their own performance. The players that are usually find out pretty quickly that teammates have overtaken their spot, and they're back in line again, starting over.

You don't get to become the biggest prospect in the world by coasting. You become that by showing continuous progress, and defy outside expectations, all while setting no ceiling for yourself.

"Let's get to the point, Mort. What are realistic expectations for Wembanyama then?"

Good question, reader. Let's get into realism, as that element should play a larger part than what it currently does.

Wembanyama will enter a system that puts heavy emphasis on teachings and patience. It took Richard Jefferson, a noted NBA veteran at the time, over a full season to feel comfortable in San Antonio's system, which plays with both structure and intuition. How Wembanyama will fare with the complexities of Gregg Popovich's methods is all up to him. And while we can all sit here and guess, fact is this: We do not know how Wembanyama's mind works. Fortunately so.

Based on pure talent alone, and setting aside the above considerations, it's entirely fair to expect Wembanyama to be a comfortable All-Rookie First Team nod, and a Rookie Of the Year candidate. This has nothing to do with hype, but the fact that his particular skill-set seems tailored to the widened spacing of the NBA game.

Just looking at Wembanyama as a rim protector or help defender, his influence should be immediate. You don't just not have an affect when you're physically capable of blocking or changing any shot attempt within the paint, when you're close to the rim.

The same can be said offensively. Adding one of the tallest players in the sport, but one with elite body coordination, excellent athleticism, and a catch radius that's otherworldly, is simply going to have an affect. Add in the fact that he handles better than any 7-footer already in the league, and it becomes preposterous to suggest Wembanyama won't have a significant influence.

The questions begin to pop up in the stuff around the core base of his talents, and that's where we need to have a nuanced discussion.

Will he be an efficient 3-point shooter in his first season? Will he foul too much? Will he struggle with turnovers? Is his rebounding ready to become a major part of his game yet?

Because here's the thing. No 19-year-old is ever a finished product. Wembanyama is going to have areas wherein he won't just be imperfect, but where he'll outright struggle.

To the uninitiated: That is a good thing. The best teacher remains failure. Most NBA organizations even look at rookie guards with high turnover rates as a positive. It suggests they're willing to take chances with the ball, and are unafraid to make decisions.

Expecting Wembanyama to come in and be the new Nikola Jokić right off the bat is not only unfair - it's also extremely unrealistic.

What we need to do is let Wembanyama determine his own baseline. That will inform us of where he is as of right now, and where he needs to go later in his NBA career.

Putting any sort of statistical expectations on him is an arbitrary, and pointless, exercise. Especially if he's given specific responsibilities before the start of the season.

Is it a failure if Wembanyama averages 15 points instead of 20? Not if he's only playing 25 minutes per game and is being brought along at a pace where the Spurs feel they can best control his development.

This isn't to say we shouldn't expect something from Wembanyama. His talent level and production with Metropolitans 92 heavily implies he will come over and, well, do stuff.

What stuff is up to him, the Spurs, and where he feels the most comfortable.

If he feels comfortable hitting the ground as a top 25 player, that's obviously perfectly fine, and extremely impressive. If he's easing his way in, and works his way up the ladder one step at a time, it doesn't make him a disappointment, as long as those steps are being made.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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