Pelicans Early Look At Next Offseason: Handle Herb Jones Contract Early?

The New Orleans Pelicans can claim championship contender status without paying the luxury tax for two more seasons but have to pay Herb Jones eventually.

Author:
Chris Dodson
Aug 22, 2022 5:56 PM EDT

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New Orleans Pelicans

Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin said to expect a calm, quiet offseason compared to his first two years on the job. He has mostly stuck to that promise, making news more for his piano playing than for being in league-altering trades. The New Orleans Pelicans stood pat in the 2022 NBA Draft to snag Dyson Daniels and E.J. Liddell while showing faith in Devonte’ Graham and Jaxson Hayes by not selling low this summer.

Griffin said the aim was to build a “sustainable championship culture” during his first days on the job. Considering the current roster and last season’s playoff run, the organization has reached a fully realized foundation around Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, and Williamson. CJ McCollum is along for the ride to end his career, showing that respected veterans are paying attention to the Pelicans.

However, in the doldrums of the NBA offseason a week before Labor Day, what better way to spend time than to look ahead to the next offseason? The NBA’s 2022-23 Season Schedule is old news. Zion Williamson has signed a five-year contract extension and the front office seems content to go into training camp with the current roster. But the 2023-23 NBA Salary Cap projections are out, giving New Orleans some salary cap sheet music to navigating their roster exceptions and the luxury tax.

Squad Goals and Starting Points

The Pelicans already have 13 players under contract for the 2023-24 season and sit just $3 million below the luxury tax line. They also have swap options for a better draft pick if they finish with a better record than the Los Angeles Lakers. If New Orleans makes the playoffs, they’ll send their second-round selection to the Atlanta Hawks. With the eye on an NBA Finals appearance, the front office’s goal going forward includes consolidating a few of the end-of-bench assets for another playoff-caliber contributor to the rotation.

Graham and Garrett Temple understand the business and why they are being shopped around. Griffin deemed Willy Hernangomez “untouchable” but the Hustle actor and Naji Marshall will not be untouchable forever regardless of how much they help the locker room.

Decisions have to be made on Jaxson Hayes and the currently rehabbing Kira Lewis Jr. soon. Hayes will be more expensive and Lewis Jr., a former first-round pick, might be behind Dyson Daniels and the undrafted Jose Alvarado on the depth chart even when healthy.

Salary Cap Implications and Exceptions

New Orleans has $158 million committed to the 13 players under contract for 2023-24. The salary cap is projected to be set at $133 million with a luxury tax threshold of $161 million. Team Governor Gayle Benson might not have to pay a luxury tax bill to reach the team’s first Western Conference Finals. However, there is little doubt about Benson writing the check if the team has a record showing championship potential.

The front office does not need to pressure ownership for luxury tax money. It could be better off keeping its options open with Mid-Level Exceptions instead of being locked into only being able to offer taxpayer-level contracts. Operating as a non-tax team gives New Orleans the $11.3 million exception to use while paying the tax limits them to $4-7 million depending on if the team stays under the tax apron hard cap of $167.97 million.

The Pelicans can clear over $9 million by rescinding the Qualifying Offer on Jaxson Hayes or trading the 2019 draft pick if he is still with the team. Naji Marshall has a club option for approximately $2 million. Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado will both make less than $2 million but the playoff-tested rookies are far more valuable to Willie Green’s rotations. Clearing a bigger contract like Graham’s $12 million is higher up on the list of priorities. Temple’s $5 million is not guaranteed and can be waived off the books if not needed in a trade.

Chasing Titles, Talking Contracts

CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. are eligible for contract extensions this summer but it makes sense to wait for a full season sample size before doling out the dollars. McCollum’s next contract will cover his mid-30s. Committing big money is making a bet against Father Time. The amount of years on the deal is the only way to hedge a bet against that particular age-related devil. The same goes for any negotiations with Jonas Valanciunas.

Veterans want their seniority respected. It is understandable in all industries. However, these Pelicans will have their championship aspirations fueled by the recent youth movement. This front office is building the foundation around Ingram (25), Williamson (22), and Herb Jones (24).

Ingram and Williamson have already signed extensions before hitting the open market. Jones is due $1.8 million under a club option before hitting restricted free agency before the 2024-25 season. Jones will be 26 years old and tied to New Orleans through a $2.3 million qualifying offer. How will the Pelicans keep their defensive ace in town through his age-30 season?

New Orleans can match any max level offer Jones receives but that could get expensive. Coach Green expects Jones to expand his offensive game and handle more of the ball this season. If Jones shows an ability to initiate offense while wrecking the opposition's plans on a nightly basis, he will get a near-max level offer from one of the rebuilding teams with cap space. It is almost a foregone conclusion among those of us in the press box.

Jones is in line for a substantial raise even if he does not develop into a lead guard. Second-round picks have been getting paid going back to Gilbert Arenas. Lu Dort and Jalen Brunson are averaging $18-25 million a year after having breakout playoff performances. Mitchell Robinson ($60 million), Chris Boucher ($35 million), and Gary Payton II ($28 million) have all signed for life-changing money recently.

Oklahoma City did not need to pressure Dort into a hometown discount deal. Brunson was all but assured to be a Knick, New York was practically bidding against themselves after a front-office shakeup to get Brunson's attention. New Orleans will have a higher level of championship expectations compared to the Thunder when Jones is due a new deal. They'll also be bidding against most of the NBA if they let negotiations get that far.

It would be difficult to find a scout, coach, or executive that would trade any of those players for Herb Jones regardless of contracts. Jones just locked up Chris Paul and Devin Booker in the first round, not to mention being snubbed for the NBA All-Defense team as a rookie. Locking him into a deal a year early might save millions per season, giving the team a little extra wiggle room under the luxury tax.