Cam’s Cool, Odell’s Motion and Bosa’s Destiny
Bengals @ Patriots
Bengals— Vontaze Burfict was at fault for Ezekiel Elliott’s 60-yard touchdown last week. He erroneously followed Jason Witten to the flat, vacating his run gap. (One guess why: tight end Geoff Swaim shifted across the formation before the snap, which forced Burfict to realign. Burfict may have forgotten that this changed his gap responsibility.) Burfict also made a pursuit angle mistake on Elliott’s 17-yard counter earlier in the game. This has to be a bounce-back week for him.
Patriots— No linebacking group is better at hitting run gaps than New England’s. They do so by design, often attacking before even reading the running back. Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins are sensational here, and last week, sixth-round rookie Elandon Roberts also flashed.
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49ers@ Bills
49ers — Colin Kaepernick’s mobility fits Chip Kelly’s scheme. The question is whether Kaepernick can be quick enough in his decision-making and throwing motion to operate Kelly’s timing-based passing game.
GAME PLAN: Can Colin Kaepernick Play? We’re About to Find Out
Bills — We talk about the value of corners Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore in Rex Ryan’s scheme, but two almost equally important players are safeties Corey Graham and Aaron Williams. The Bills play a lot of Quarters coverage, meaning each of the four DB’s is responsible for one-fourth of the field. Just like how this leaves Darby and Gilmore in a lot of one-on-one scenarios, it can do the same with Graham and Williams. And that’s along the seams, where there’s no sideline help. It’s no coincidence that Graham and Williams were both corners early in their careers. To play safety for the Bills, you have to be able to cover. (Oh, and also blitz. The Bills are at their best when they’re blitzing safeties.)
TALKING FOOTBALL: Bills Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander Led the NFL in Sacks Through Week 5. Wait, Who?
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Colts @ Texans
Colts — What tilted the balance in the win over Chicago was the way the Colts got T.Y. Hilton open through play designs that put him on routes specifically exploiting an anticipated coverage. This is exactly how you have to use Hilton, and he can be as dangerous as any receiver when it’s going well.
Texans — You’ll see a lot of inside stunts this game, with edge rushers looping around up the middle. The Texans are great at this and the Colts have struggled tactically against it over the years, including a few times last week.
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Ravens @ Giants
Ravens — The belief is John Harbaugh fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman because of inconsistency with calls in the running game. That sort of problem can spread beyond your ground game. One example: most running plays come with either two backs or two tight ends on the field. Defenses know this, and so you can catch them more off-guard with passes out of these two-back or two-tight end formations. On first downs, the Ravens are averaging 8.9 yards a pass attempt out of two-tight end sets, with a 72.4% completion rate. They’ve thrown from a three-receiver set on first down almost equally as often. (The three-receiver attempt numbers naturally inflate a bit by the fact that you generally play three receivers in hurry-up.) But in three-wide, Baltimore’s yards per attempt fall to 4.2 and their completion rate dips to 51.5%. Expect new OC Marty Mornhinweg to feature more base personnel on first down in order to help not just the ground game but also the aerial attack.
Giants — Odell Beckham Jr. has played 323 snaps this season and gone in motion just 26 times. And he’s aligned in the slot just 30 times. That’s a mistake. Presnap motion is not a big facet in Ben McAdoo’s system, but who cares? No player in football worries a defense more than Beckham. Imagine the stress of having to track of him at multiple spots before the snap. At the very least, this would complicate double-teaming him.
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Panthers @ Saints
Panthers — Cam Newton didn’t get a concussion two weeks ago because his proclivity for running finally caught up to him. He got a concussion because his proclivity for being cool did. He took his eyes off the field and lollygagged across the goal line, creating Deion Jones’s hit. If Newton had stayed focused, he would have scored easily and no one would be saying anything about the pounding he takes as a runner. It would remain the nonissue that it’s been throughout his career. The Panthers need Newton to run. He’s the nexus of their intricate ground game. And that ground game must get back on course. It’s averaging 124.6 yards a game this season (down from 142.6 in ’15). Bad runs are creating the third-and-long situations that have exposed Carolina’s limited offensive tackles in pass protection.
Saints — Here’s another team that needs to run the ball. New Orleans is averaging 23 attempts a game, tied for 24th in the NFL. We think of the Saints as a high-flying passing team, but their best success over the years has come under balanced play-calling. One reason for this: the staples of Sean Payton’s passing game—seam patterns, horizontally stretched play-action and backfield screens—are best coming out of run-based formations.
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Browns @ Titans
Browns — One beacon of light on this winless team: nose tackle Danny Shelton. He plays with light feet and the gradual strength to wear down blockers over the course of a play.
Titans — This is a run-based offense, and last week against Miami that worked for them. But it’s worth noting: for the second week in a row, Marcus Mariota was very proficient playing out of spread sets in hurry-up at the end of a half. Spread sets showcase Mariota’s keen field vision and present scrambling opportunities.
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Jaguars @ Bears
Jaguars — Rookie corner Jalen Ramsey is an outstanding talent (length, athleticism, physicality). But now he must bounce back from his “welcome to the NFL” moment two weeks ago when Andrew Luck caught him misplaying his Cover 3 deep-vertical responsibility and found Phillip Dorsett for a 64-yard touchdown.
Bears — John Fox got petulant when he was asked about Brian Hoyer not seeing Alshon Jeffery wide open over the top on the final play in the loss at Indy. (Vontae Davis blew his assignment by keeping his eyes in the backfield out of man coverage—a no-no.) Fox’s reaction was understandable, especially given that Hoyer had played great before that final play. But questions about that final play are also understandable. The guess here is Hoyer predetermined before the snap that he was going to throw to the three-receiver side. (Jeffery was aligned alone on the other side.) Because when the Colts rotated to man-free coverage—something they had rarely done all game—Hoyer should have then realized that he had one-on-one matchups. If that’s the case, the ball goes to your 6’4” stud wideout on the Go route.
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Rams @ Lions
Rams — Aaron Donald and the defensive line get a lot of attention, but you could argue that the Rams’ most important players have been linebackers Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron, plus safeties T.J. McDonald and Mo Alexander. Those middle field defenders are the source of the speed and versatility that define coordinator Gregg Williams’s system.
Lions — There’s been a lot talk this week about whether Matthew Stafford is better without Calvin Johnson. It would make sense that he is. Stafford has always been one of those wild stallion quarterbacks who take risks. A star receiver with Johnson’s catching radius can be intoxicating.
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Eagles @ Washington
Philadelphia — Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor were playing with much better quickness early this season. Last week we didn’t see that as much, especially from Agholor. The Eagles need these two wideouts to be on their games.
Washington — Having tight end Jordan Reed likely out (concussion) hurts. He’s the chess piece you move to dictate matchup problems (especially in the red zone). And so when he’s gone, not only are you without your best target, but all of your other receivers become less potent.
ROBERT KLEMKO: How High Is Kirk Cousins’s Ceiling?
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Steelers @ Dolphins
Steelers — We again saw the two-back formations with Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams together on the field last week. To defend it, the Jets played nickel and put that third corner on whichever back was detached from the backfield. Something is brewing here in Pittsburgh. At some point we’ll see some really unique designs—maybe even trickery—with this personnel package.
Dolphins — Backup linemen Billy Turner and Dallas Thomas were both released after getting eaten alive by the Titans last week as fill-in starters on the left side. It’s always easy to criticize the decision-makers on a 1-4 team, but this question is fair: What were Turner and Thomas doing on the roster to begin with? They’d had the exact same struggles in previous years.
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Chiefs @ Raiders
Chiefs — Expect to see Travis Kelce line up out wide a lot. Putting your tight end outside and receivers inside can create real matchup problems against a defense that likes to play zone as much as the Raiders do.
Raiders — This would be a perfect week for the Raiders to play dime instead of nickel. They’re ailing and thin at the linebacker position. Taking one off the field and replacing him with a safety is a good answer for combating Kansas City’s versatility at tight end. Especially if that safety has cornerbacking experience (T.J. Carrie).
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Falcons @ Seahawks
Falcons — We’ll see more of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman on the field together. The Falcons killed the Broncos by motioning Coleman to the slot in empty backfield formations out of this package. (Coleman had a 31-yard touchdown catch and a 49-yarder here.) Even though Coleman and Freeman are potent receivers in space, the Broncos kept putting linebackers on these two because you have to keep heavier personnel in to hedge against the possibility of seeing Atlanta’s outside zone running game.
Seahawks — We used this blurb a week ago but it’s so important we’re going to re-run it (the Seahawks are coming off a bye and haven’t played since last week’s All-32 anyway): Jimmy Graham was dominant in Week 4—and from an array of different positions. That’s what we’ve been waiting to see. If it continues, this offense could be lethal.
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Cowboys @ Packers
Cowboys — Ezekiel Elliott has outstanding acceleration mixed with an ability to control his tempo. His changes in speed are so seamless that you don’t notice them until after they’ve occurred. And doing so behind Dallas’s O-line? A rushing title has never looked so inevitable this early in the season.
DEEP DIVE: Cowboys vs. Packers—Clash of the Big Men
Packers — Lane Taylor has been surprisingly effective, maybe even better than that, for the Packers at left guard. And it’s worth noting that the man he replaced, Josh Sitton, has also been very good in Chicago. The Bears and Packers both won when Ted Thompson released the Pro Bowler Sitton.
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Jets @ Cardinals
Jets — This defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per dropback (8.8). Shaky secondary play might be why we have not seen Todd Bowles’s aggressive inside blitz tactics nearly as much this season.
Cardinals — This is a totally different defense with Tyrann Mathieu in the slot. That will be a big factor against a Jets offense that spreads out and puts extra receivers on the field almost every snap.
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Broncos @ Chargers
Broncos — How to attack the Broncos’ defense was never a mystery: you use man-beaters. The trick is executing them against an array of stars. The Chargers, with their crisscrossing releases out of tight bunches and crossing-route concepts, did just well enough Thursday night, especially early in the first half.
GOING LONG: How Did Trevor Siemian Become Peyton Manning’s Successor?
Chargers — After studying only about 50 snaps on Joey Bosa, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t become a top-shelf superstar. Two parts of his game are unspeakably quick and explosive: his lateral movement and his hands.
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Byes
Vikings — There isn’t a secondary in football playing better than this one right now. That’s in both zone and man coverage.
Bucs — This bye couldn’t have come at a better time. The Bucs are coming off an ugly win at Carolina and are reeling with injuries at running back. The sooner Doug Martin is back in action, the sooner this offense, which does a lot of running and throwing out of heavier formations, will be its self.
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