2025 NFL Draft: What caliber of player can Bears fans expect at No. 10 overall?

With the Chicago Bears currently owning the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, there's a lot of uncertainty about who the Bears will draft and what caliber of player they'll be. Some might even hope for the Bears to make a trade up or down in the draft order.

While we can't know for sure whether the player the Bears end up with in Round 1 will be a star, we can look back at the recent history of that draft slot to determine what kind of pro it produces.

For this exercise, I go through the last 10 NFL Drafts (2014-2024) and evaluate each player that was taken 10th overall.

Be warned, Bears fans: it's a mixed bag of results and includes one of the most painful what-could-have-been in Chicago sports history.

Incomplete Grades: Darnell Wright (Chicago Bears, 2023) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings, 2024)

McCarthy has yet to play a single NFL snap, so he cannot be evaluated yet. As for Wright, his grade will remain incomplete until he's finished his third season (a good rule of thumb when evaluating players), but he's trending way up. Unless he inexplicably falls off a cliff in 2025, he's set to receive a huge payday from Chicago next offseason.

Busts: Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals, 2018), Jedrick Wills (Cleveland Browns, 2020)

Enough ink has been spilled on Josh Rosen, with many analysts naming him one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history. But, what about Wills?

A star offensive tackle from Alabama, not only did Wills never live up to his potential, but he was taken two selections before 4-time Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs. A huge swing and a miss for Cleveland.

Not great, not terrible: Eric Ebron (Detroit Lions, 2014), Eli Apple (New York Giants, 2016), Devin Bush (Pittsburgh Steelers, 2019)

These are guys who didn't live up to the hype, but they weren't total busts. Ebron played four productive seasons for Detroit before spending two years each with Indy and Pittsburgh before retiring. He at least earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2018.

Apple has put together some good seasons as he's bounced around the league, but none with the team that drafted him.

Devin Bush has been "just a guy" his entire career. He's mostly a special teams player while serving as a backup linebacker.

Eli Apple — Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Elite: Garrett Wilson (New York Jets, 2022) and DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles, 2021), Todd Gurley (St. Louis Rams, 2015)

No two ways about it. These 10th overall picks ended up being fantastic selections. Smith is now a Super Bowl champion who even caught a touchdown pass in the 40-22 rout of the Chiefs, and Wilson has put up three straight years of more than 1,000 receiving yards to start his career.

As for Gurley, he was on track to be one of the all-time great running backs before injuries completely derailed his career. Despite playing just six seasons, I doubt anyone in the Rams fanbase or organization regrets that pick.

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs, 2017)

Mahomes gets a category all to himself. He's the greatest 10th overall pick in NFL history.

The debate about whether Mahomes would have been Mahomes had the Bears drafted him originally rages on, but Bears fans are hoping that Caleb Williams will ultimately put an end to the misery.

Patrick Mahomes — Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Results

The 10th overall draft pick since 2014 is an even mix of good and bad. Disregarding the two incomplete grades, we have two busts, three so-so picks, three elite players, and one Patrick Mahomes.

With history as a guide, it's fair to expect the Bears to come out of this draft with no worse than a solid contributor.

Darnell Wrigh — Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

— Enjoy free coverage of the Bears from Chicago Bears on SI —

More Chicago Bears News:

Chicago Bears' 2025 offseason spending leaves team near bottom in NFL salary cap space

Bears named among teams 'trying to get it right' as 2025 NFL season approaches

Chicago Bears fans prefer offensive weapon over lineman in most 2025 NFL mock drafts

Chicago Bears' strong presence at top prospect's pro day offers 2025 NFL Draft clue